Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard</li>
<li>Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list</li>
<li>We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk</li>
</ul>


Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk


Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.</li>
<li>This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.</li>
<li>This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). </li>
</ul>


The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.
This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.
This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). 


Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

<ul>
<li>Indian banks' average Net Interest Margins fell 21 basis points in FY25, projected to decline another 9 basis points in FY2026 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition pressures.  </li>
<li>Robust credit growth continues while deposit growth lags increasing funding costs. Nonperforming Assets for public and private banks are projected to stabilize or decline.  </li>
<li>Contracting margins squeeze core income, public banks may see profit decline FY26 despite stable asset quality aiding earnings.</li>
</ul>


Indian banks' average Net Interest Margins fell 21 basis points in FY25, projected to decline another 9 basis points in FY2026 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition pressures.  
Robust credit growth continues while deposit growth lags increasing funding costs. Nonperforming Assets for public and private banks are projected to stabilize or decline.  
Contracting margins squeeze core income, public banks may see profit decline FY26 despite stable asset quality aiding earnings.


Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

<ul>
<li>The RBI’s March 2025 surveys highlight a balanced recovery, with easing inflation expectations, strong rural sentiment, and sector-specific growth prospects across banking, manufacturing, and services.</li>
<li>With moderate credit growth and consumer confidence improving, sectors like agri-finance, retail, and infrastructure are poised for growth, while inflationary pressures and currency depreciation may impact import-dependent companies.</li>
<li>India's economic recovery is steady, with sector-specific positioning crucial. As rural confidence rises and inflation expectations moderate, growth opportunities are more identifiable, especially in rural finance and manufacturing.</li>
</ul>


The RBI’s March 2025 surveys highlight a balanced recovery, with easing inflation expectations, strong rural sentiment, and sector-specific growth prospects across banking, manufacturing, and services.
With moderate credit growth and consumer confidence improving, sectors like agri-finance, retail, and infrastructure are poised for growth, while inflationary pressures and currency depreciation may impact import-dependent companies.
India's economic recovery is steady, with sector-specific positioning crucial. As rural confidence rises and inflation expectations moderate, growth opportunities are more identifiable, especially in rural finance and manufacturing.


<ul>
<li>We recommend three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Baroda, Bandhan adding Punjab National Bank (PNB); we remove Union Bank of India from the buy list, PNB is more compelling</li>
<li>Bandhan and Baroda are attractive for their value attributes relative to their returns, with newly added PNB delivering better returns and it continues to improve credit quality</li>
<li>Richly valued Kotak Mahindra has the group’s highest returns post credit costs, but returns continue to trend downwards; we upgrade premium-valued ICICI to neutral as it delivers further improved returns</li>
</ul>


We recommend three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Baroda, Bandhan adding Punjab National Bank (PNB); we remove Union Bank of India from the buy list, PNB is more compelling
Bandhan and Baroda are attractive for their value attributes relative to their returns, with newly added PNB delivering better returns and it continues to improve credit quality
Richly valued Kotak Mahindra has the group’s highest returns post credit costs, but returns continue to trend downwards; we upgrade premium-valued ICICI to neutral as it delivers further improved returns


Indian Banks Screener: Adding Punjab National Bank (NSEI:PNB) To the Buy List

India

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

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Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)

Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

Our proprietary scorecard places Baroda, Canara, and UBI on the buy list, replacing Bandhan and UBI; Kotak Mahindra is no longer on the sell list....

Victor Galliano

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...

Nimish Maheshwari

RBI Forward-Looking Survey Analysis

RBI surveys show balanced recovery in India, with rural sentiment strong and growth prospects in banking, manufacturing, and services. Sector...

Nimish Maheshwari

Indian Banks Screener: Adding Punjab National Bank (NSEI:PNB) To the Buy List

Buy Baroda, Bandhan, and PNB, the latter replacing UBI. PNB offers sharply improving returns, all are value plays. Richly valued Kotak Mahindra is...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

​Our proprietary scorecard places Baroda, Canara, and UBI on the buy list, replacing Bandhan and UBI; Kotak Mahindra is no longer on the sell list....

Victor Galliano

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

​Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

​Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...

Nimish Maheshwari

RBI Forward-Looking Survey Analysis

​RBI surveys show balanced recovery in India, with rural sentiment strong and growth prospects in banking, manufacturing, and services. Sector...

Nimish Maheshwari

Indian Banks Screener: Adding Punjab National Bank (NSEI:PNB) To the Buy List

​Buy Baroda, Bandhan, and PNB, the latter replacing UBI. PNB offers sharply improving returns, all are value plays. Richly valued Kotak Mahindra is...

Victor Galliano

Our proprietary scorecard places Baroda, Canara, and UBI on the buy list, replacing Bandhan and UBI; Kotak Mahindra is no longer on the sell list....

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...

RBI surveys show balanced recovery in India, with rural sentiment strong and growth prospects in banking, manufacturing, and services. Sector...

Buy Baroda, Bandhan, and PNB, the latter replacing UBI. PNB offers sharply improving returns, all are value plays. Richly valued Kotak Mahindra is...