Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Huya/Douyu ratio leapt to its highest level since Aug 25th at 2.79 following Douyu’s earnings.</li>
<li>This was despite Douyu’s margins being noticeably better than we expected as MAU and paying user growth were weak.</li>
<li>We still believe there is a lot of value in Huya while shorting Douyu is increasingly less attractive.</li>
</ul>


The Huya/Douyu ratio leapt to its highest level since Aug 25th at 2.79 following Douyu’s earnings.
This was despite Douyu’s margins being noticeably better than we expected as MAU and paying user growth were weak.
We still believe there is a lot of value in Huya while shorting Douyu is increasingly less attractive.


Huya Vs. Douyu – Douyu Results Not Too Bad but We Still Prefer Huya

Event-Driven

While both Huya and Douyu failed to escape the downward pressure on Chinese tech stocks in the last quarter the latter noticeably outperformed, falling “just” 33% since our last insight vs. a 43% drop for Huya. Those moves have set things up very well for Huya though…

While both Huya and Douyu failed to escape the downward pressure on Chinese tech stocks in the last quarter the latter noticeably outperformed, falling “just” 33% since our last insight vs. a 43% drop for Huya. Those moves have set things up very well for Huya though…

Huya Vs. Douyu – Both Trading Near Net Cash but Buy the More Expensive One

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

iClick Interactive Asia Group / Event-Driven

In recent years,  it has become common practice for Chinese "tech" companies listed in the US to be privatised, on the expectation of being relisted on the Mainland (where often higher multiples are assigned) or Hong Kong. Following the passing of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holding_Foreign_Companies_Accountable_Act" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act</a> last year, there is an added impetus to take these companies private. Or at the very least, seek a dual listing in Hong Kong.
More often than not, these takeovers are initiated by the controlling shareholders. Which makes this latest non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iclick-interactive-asia-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27314:1" rel="noopener">iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US)</a> a little unusual.
iClick <a href="https://ir.i-click.com/2021-09-24-iClick-Interactive-Asia-Group-Limited-Announces-Receipt-of-a-Preliminary-Non-Binding-Indicative-Proposal-to-Acquire-the-Company" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 24 September it had received a preliminary indicative proposal from PAG Pegasus Fund and Oasis Management to acquire all of its outstanding shares for US$6.75 per ADS, in cash.
That's a 19% premium to last close, yet 63% below its all-time high close of US$18.30 in February last year, and 16% below its $8/share IPO price in December 2018.
Should a firm Offer unfold, this long-form merger would require two-thirds majority approval from all shareholders.
Sammy Hsieh, the chairman of the board of directors and co-founder, Jian Tang, iClick's CEO, and co-founder, collectively own 4,385,078 Class B ordinary shares, which due to their super-voting rights, is equivalent to ~62% of the voting power. This proposal is a non-starter without the support of either Hsieh or Tang.
In addition, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29712:1" rel="noopener">Baozun (9991 HK)</a> controls a further 10% of the voting power. Should all three side with the buyer consortium, this deal is done. 
But I doubt this will be the outcome. A more likely scenario is the consortium's low-balled Offer is a means to triggering a response from a key player, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, to make a counteroffer.
More below the fold.

In recent years,  it has become common practice for Chinese "tech" companies listed in the US to be privatised, on the expectation of being relisted on the Mainland (where often higher multiples are assigned) or Hong Kong. Following the passing of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act last year, there is an added impetus to take these companies private. Or at the very least, seek a dual listing in Hong Kong.
More often than not, these takeovers are initiated by the controlling shareholders. Which makes this latest non-binding proposal for iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US) a little unusual.
iClick announced on the 24 September it had received a preliminary indicative proposal from PAG Pegasus Fund and Oasis Management to acquire all of its outstanding shares for US$6.75 per ADS, in cash.
That's a 19% premium to last close, yet 63% below its all-time high close of US$18.30 in February last year, and 16% below its $8/share IPO price in December 2018.
Should a firm Offer unfold, this long-form merger would require two-thirds majority approval from all shareholders.
Sammy Hsieh, the chairman of the board of directors and co-founder, Jian Tang, iClick's CEO, and co-founder, collectively own 4,385,078 Class B ordinary shares, which due to their super-voting rights, is equivalent to ~62% of the voting power. This proposal is a non-starter without the support of either Hsieh or Tang.
In addition, Baozun (9991 HK) controls a further 10% of the voting power. Should all three side with the buyer consortium, this deal is done. 
But I doubt this will be the outcome. A more likely scenario is the consortium's low-balled Offer is a means to triggering a response from a key player, such as Tencent (700 HK), to make a counteroffer.
More below the fold.

IClick(ICLK US): PAG & Oasis Shake The Trees

Overnight many Chinese gaming-related names fell ~3% on news that China would be restricting playing time for minors to just three hours a week, specifically 20:00-21:00 on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The market reaction grossly underestimates how drastic these restrictions will be for gaming companies and seems to simply be superficially looking at the low single-digit revenue contribution percentages of minors.

Overnight many Chinese gaming-related names fell ~3% on news that China would be restricting playing time for minors to just three hours a week, specifically 20:00-21:00 on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The market reaction grossly underestimates how drastic these restrictions will be for gaming companies and seems to simply be superficially looking at the low single-digit revenue contribution percentages of minors.

China Gaming Restrictions Are FAR More Severe Than the Market Is Assuming

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> may be subject to a privatisation bid from Mr David Li (co-founder and Chairman) and Mr Jun Lei (founder and Chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>), its top two shareholders, according to Reuters report on 26 August. Mr David Li and Mr Jun Lei are looking to privatise Joyy at $75-$100 per ADS and finalise the deal by the end of 2021. Mr David Li and Mr Jun Lei aim to spin off Joyy's key asset, BIGO, and list it in Hong Kong, to take advantage of higher valuations, according to Reuters. On 27 August, Joyy said it has not received any formal takeover offers, according to Chinese media reports.  Joyy shares are around 60% below their February peak due to weak guidance (3Q21 revenue guidance was around 16% below consensus), the delay of SAMR anti-trust approval for the YY Live disposal and ongoing policy uncertainty on Chinese tech.As a reminder, on 16 November 2020, Joyy entered into a definitive agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> for the disposal of YY Live for $3.6 billion in cash, subject to certain adjustments. The sale was substantially completed on 8 February 2021 resulting in a $1.9 billion payment from Baidu. Notably, Joyy’s market cap of $4.9 billion is 7% below its net cash of $5.2 billion, which is the sum of the 2Q1 net cash of $3.9 billion and Baidu's remaining payment net of tax $1.4 billion.As Joyy is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for potential privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. Mr David Li represents 76.0% of the voting interest and has the two-thirds voting interest threshold needed to approve any potential privatisation deal.<div class="content-highlight">Our SOTP and relative valuation suggest that the rumoured privatisation range of $75-100 per ADS is justifiable and reasonable. Our base-case SOTP valuation is $71.69 per ADS, which is a 16% premium to the last close price of $61.97 per ADS. Despite Joyy's insistence that no formal bid has been received, we would be buyers as the shares offer a favourable risk/reward profile to the emergence of a formal privatisation bid.</div>

JOYY (YY US) may be subject to a privatisation bid from Mr David Li (co-founder and Chairman) and Mr Jun Lei (founder and Chairman of Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)), its top two shareholders, according to Reuters report on 26 August. Mr David Li and Mr Jun Lei are looking to privatise Joyy at $75-$100 per ADS and finalise the deal by the end of 2021. Mr David Li and Mr Jun Lei aim to spin off Joyy's key asset, BIGO, and list it in Hong Kong, to take advantage of higher valuations, according to Reuters. On 27 August, Joyy said it has not received any formal takeover offers, according to Chinese media reports.  Joyy shares are around 60% below their February peak due to weak guidance (3Q21 revenue guidance was around 16% below consensus), the delay of SAMR anti-trust approval for the YY Live disposal and ongoing policy uncertainty on Chinese tech.As a reminder, on 16 November 2020, Joyy entered into a definitive agreement with Baidu (BIDU US) for the disposal of YY Live for $3.6 billion in cash, subject to certain adjustments. The sale was substantially completed on 8 February 2021 resulting in a $1.9 billion payment from Baidu. Notably, Joyy’s market cap of $4.9 billion is 7% below its net cash of $5.2 billion, which is the sum of the 2Q1 net cash of $3.9 billion and Baidu's remaining payment net of tax $1.4 billion.As Joyy is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for potential privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. Mr David Li represents 76.0% of the voting interest and has the two-thirds voting interest threshold needed to approve any potential privatisation deal.Our SOTP and relative valuation suggest that the rumoured privatisation range of $75-100 per ADS is justifiable and reasonable. Our base-case SOTP valuation is $71.69 per ADS, which is a 16% premium to the last close price of $61.97 per ADS. Despite Joyy's insistence that no formal bid has been received, we would be buyers as the shares offer a favourable risk/reward profile to the emergence of a formal privatisation bid.

Joyy’s Potential Privatisation by Top Two Shareholders

United States

HUYA Inc. operates as a game live streaming platform. The Company offers interactive video broadcast services including e-sports, music, reality show, entertainment genres, talent shows, and anime and outdoor activities. HUYA serves customers in China.

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HUYA (HUYA US)

Huya Vs. Douyu – Douyu Results Not Too Bad but We Still Prefer Huya

The Huya/Douyu ratio leapt to its highest level since Aug 25th following Douyu’s earnings and while we still believe there is a lot of value in...

Mio Kato

Huya Vs. Douyu – Both Trading Near Net Cash but Buy the More Expensive One

While both Huya and Douyu failed to escape the downward pressure on Chinese tech stocks in the last quarter the share price falls have set things...

Mio Kato

IClick(ICLK US): PAG & Oasis Shake The Trees

Buying around here is probably going to have limited downside. I think PAG/Oasis' intent is to shake out potential suitors - including the co...

David Blennerhassett

China Gaming Restrictions Are FAR More Severe Than the Market Is Assuming

We believe the market reaction to China's new gaming restrictions grossly underestimates how drastic the long-term impact will be.

Mio Kato

Joyy’s Potential Privatisation by Top Two Shareholders

Joyy's rumoured privatisation bid is at $75-$100 per ADS. Our base-case SOTP valuation is $71.69, a 16% premium to the last close. Consequently,...

Arun George

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