Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>More deflation reported in China and the implications for markets</li>
<li>Chinese authorities keep pushing liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market</li>
<li>Parts of the Chinese Economy not as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe</li>
</ul>


More deflation reported in China and the implications for markets
Chinese authorities keep pushing liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market
Parts of the Chinese Economy not as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe


CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average rose so Hs underperformed As by 1.75%. Narrow premia pairs saw AH premia rise most.</li>
<li>Watch the SOE stock price KPI space. Wouldn't be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. Low-hanging fruit with some SOEs having large cash balances.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average rose so Hs underperformed As by 1.75%. Narrow premia pairs saw AH premia rise most.
Watch the SOE stock price KPI space. Wouldn't be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. Low-hanging fruit with some SOEs having large cash balances.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Feb 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Narrow AH Premia Wider

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. </li>
<li>In this insight, I have shown how my flow expectations have changed since I published my last HSCEI insight on 6th December 2023.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. 
In this insight, I have shown how my flow expectations have changed since I published my last HSCEI insight on 6th December 2023.


Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue

<ul>
<li>A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.</li>
<li>Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.</li>
</ul>


A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.
Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

<ul>
<li>A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND selling was HK$9.4bn on the week, with net selling every day as the market fell hard - both in HK and the mainland.</li>
<li>Remarkable this past week was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well. </li>
</ul>


A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit. 
Net SOUTHBOUND selling was HK$9.4bn on the week, with net selling every day as the market fell hard - both in HK and the mainland.
Remarkable this past week was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Feb 2024); Net Selling (Much Tech), Net SOE Buying, Still

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited provides telecommunication services. The Company offers wireline voice, broadband, roaming, and other related services. China Mobile serves customers in Hong Kong.

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China Mobile (941 HK)

CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...

Rikki Malik

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Narrow AH Premia Wider

The Quiddity H/A Monitor: Both Hs and As were up - As outperformed their Hs over the four-day week. Only Telecom Hs did well. One week off of A/H...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue

I estimate one-way flow to be US$235mn which translates to a turnover of ~2%. However, these estimates are based on the low-conviction assumption...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

SOUTHBOUND saw net buying on this shortened week pre-CNY as stocks rebounded from the previous week's dramatic selloff. High Div SOEs were bought...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Feb 2024); Net Selling (Much Tech), Net SOE Buying, Still

SOUTHBOUND Connect saw net outflows every day and ended the week at -9.4bn HKD. Lots of tech selling. Lots of momentum-action (selling what was...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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P/E

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CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

​China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...

Rikki Malik

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Narrow AH Premia Wider

The Quiddity H/A Monitor: Both Hs and As were up - As outperformed their Hs over the four-day week. Only Telecom Hs did well. One week off of A/H...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue

I estimate one-way flow to be US$235mn which translates to a turnover of ~2%. However, these estimates are based on the low-conviction assumption...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

SOUTHBOUND saw net buying on this shortened week pre-CNY as stocks rebounded from the previous week's dramatic selloff. High Div SOEs were bought...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Feb 2024); Net Selling (Much Tech), Net SOE Buying, Still

SOUTHBOUND Connect saw net outflows every day and ended the week at -9.4bn HKD. Lots of tech selling. Lots of momentum-action (selling what was...

Travis Lundy

China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...