Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>China Tower released its 1H25 earnings. Revenue went up by 2.8%/0.2% YoY/HoH to RMB49.6bn (vs. BBG consensus: RMB49.7bn).</li><li>NP went up by 8.0%/6.6% YoY/HoH to RMB5.8bn (vs. BBG consensus: RMB5.7bn). NPM slightly improved to 11.6%, 0.6ppt higher than 1H24/FY24.</li><li>1H25 revenue/NP accounted for 49%/50% of our FY25 projections, similar to 1H24. 1H25 EBITDA increased by 3.6% YoY to RMB34.2bn; while EBITDA margin was 69.0% (vs. 68.5% in 1H24). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Tower released its 1H25 earnings. Revenue went up by 2.8%/0.2% YoY/HoH to RMB49.6bn (vs. BBG consensus: RMB49.7bn).NP went up by 8.0%/6.6% YoY/HoH to RMB5.8bn (vs. BBG consensus: RMB5.7bn). NPM slightly improved to 11.6%, 0.6ppt higher than 1H24/FY24.1H25 revenue/NP accounted for 49%/50% of our FY25 projections, similar to 1H24. 1H25 EBITDA increased by 3.6% YoY to RMB34.2bn; while EBITDA margin was 69.0% (vs. 68.5% in 1H24). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Tower (788 HK) - 1H25 Results In-Line; Maintain HOLD

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

Incorporated in Beijing in July 2014, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> is a state-owned telecommunications company that provides telecommunications tower construction, tower maintenance, ancillary facilities management and related services in China. 
As at 31 December 2020, China Tower operated and managed 2.023 million tower sites and its total assets were RMB337.4 billion, and it was therefore commonly known as the world's largest telecommunications tower infrastructure service provider. 
Amid aggressive 5G rollout in China in 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> was initially poised to be a key beneficiary of the 5G secular growth story. Instead, its share price performance has significantly underperformed both the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and its telecommunication tower infrastructure peers listed internationally over the past 12 to 18 months. 
This was attributed to <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/5G-networks/Chinese-telecom-operators-cut-back-5G-network-construction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weaker</a> than expected 5G-related demand for new towers, which was in turn due to a combination of factors, such as:
<ol>
<li>slower than expected 5G adoption;</li>
<li>China telecom operators, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and new entrant China Broadcast Network, striking partnerships to share network frequency bands; and </li>
<li>where possible, China telecom operators opting for co-location of base stations to save tower deployment capital expenditures. </li>
</ol>
In this Insight, we discuss if China Tower is past its trough and whether the upcoming tower lease negotiations in 2022 will become an overhang. Further, we address potential corporate governance concerns given that its major shareholders - that is, the Big 3 China telecom operators - are also its largest customers and therefore have considerable influence on China Tower's business decisions.

Incorporated in Beijing in July 2014, China Tower (788 HK) is a state-owned telecommunications company that provides telecommunications tower construction, tower maintenance, ancillary facilities management and related services in China. 
As at 31 December 2020, China Tower operated and managed 2.023 million tower sites and its total assets were RMB337.4 billion, and it was therefore commonly known as the world's largest telecommunications tower infrastructure service provider. 
Amid aggressive 5G rollout in China in 2020, China Tower (788 HK) was initially poised to be a key beneficiary of the 5G secular growth story. Instead, its share price performance has significantly underperformed both the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and its telecommunication tower infrastructure peers listed internationally over the past 12 to 18 months. 
This was attributed to weaker than expected 5G-related demand for new towers, which was in turn due to a combination of factors, such as:

slower than expected 5G adoption;
China telecom operators, namely China Telecom (H) (728 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK), China Mobile (941 HK) and new entrant China Broadcast Network, striking partnerships to share network frequency bands; and 
where possible, China telecom operators opting for co-location of base stations to save tower deployment capital expenditures. 

In this Insight, we discuss if China Tower is past its trough and whether the upcoming tower lease negotiations in 2022 will become an overhang. Further, we address potential corporate governance concerns given that its major shareholders - that is, the Big 3 China telecom operators - are also its largest customers and therefore have considerable influence on China Tower's business decisions. 

China Tower (788 HK) - Deep Value, Though Lease Negotiation Overhang Persists

<ul><li>China Tower released its FY24 results. Revenue went up by 4.0% YoY to RMB97.8bn, in-line with our estimate and Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>Net profit went up by 10.0% to RMB10.7bn, 1.8% above our estimate but 2.2% below Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>By segment, Tower revenue (77% of total revenue) was RMB75.7bn, up 0.9% YoY, while DAS (9%) and Two Wings (14%) business continued to grow at double-digits, reaching RMB8.4bn (18% YoY) and RMB13.4bn (16% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Tower released its FY24 results. Revenue went up by 4.0% YoY to RMB97.8bn, in-line with our estimate and Bloomberg consensus.Net profit went up by 10.0% to RMB10.7bn, 1.8% above our estimate but 2.2% below Bloomberg consensus.By segment, Tower revenue (77% of total revenue) was RMB75.7bn, up 0.9% YoY, while DAS (9%) and Two Wings (14%) business continued to grow at double-digits, reaching RMB8.4bn (18% YoY) and RMB13.4bn (16% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Tower (788 HK) - 2024 Results In-Line with Expectations; Maintain HOLD

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Box trades are gaining popularity on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These arbitrage strategies exploit price discrepancies in options markets for near risk-free profits.</li>
<li>Long box trades involve simultaneously buying bull call spreads and bear put spreads with identical strikes and expiration dates, creating a fixed payoff regardless of the underlying asset's price movement.</li>
<li>Box trades require careful execution consideration of spreads, commissions, margins, and fees, with risks primarily in execution and operations rather than market exposure.</li>
</ul>


Box trades are gaining popularity on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These arbitrage strategies exploit price discrepancies in options markets for near risk-free profits.
Long box trades involve simultaneously buying bull call spreads and bear put spreads with identical strikes and expiration dates, creating a fixed payoff regardless of the underlying asset's price movement.
Box trades require careful execution consideration of spreads, commissions, margins, and fees, with risks primarily in execution and operations rather than market exposure.


Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

China

China Tower Corporation Limited operates as a telecommunication company. The Company provides telecommunication towers construction, towers maintenance, ancillary facilities management, and other services. China Tower provides its services throughout China.

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China Tower (788 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

We made small changes to the HK Alpha portfolio mid-month. At the close on 12/12 we sold all of First Pacific (142 HK) and added 2% to our...

David Mudd