Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US market is weakening again as an interday reversal after Nvidia results foreshadows continued selling in the AI theme.  Market breadth is weakening and stocks at 52-week lows surging.</li>
<li>Volatility has reached levels last seen during the tariff tantrum in April. Insider sales of Nvidia have surged since June. Private credit and private equity markets are showing stress.</li>
<li>US consumption has narrowed and is highly dependent on stock market gains. Household debt levels are at new highs, and consumer sentiment is lower than during the GFC in 2008/09.</li>
</ul>


The US market is weakening again as an interday reversal after Nvidia results foreshadows continued selling in the AI theme.  Market breadth is weakening and stocks at 52-week lows surging.
Volatility has reached levels last seen during the tariff tantrum in April. Insider sales of Nvidia have surged since June. Private credit and private equity markets are showing stress.
US consumption has narrowed and is highly dependent on stock market gains. Household debt levels are at new highs, and consumer sentiment is lower than during the GFC in 2008/09.


US Market: WALK TO THE EXIT NOW BEFORE EVERYONE STARTS RUNNING!

Independent in-depth research from Finimize, Finimize

Finimize Research

Independent in-depth research from Finimize

Finimize

Finimize is the #1 information platform for modern investors. We empower people to become smarter investors with bitesize insights from world-class analysts. 1 million+ strong community, 250 partners.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The US economy’s resilience hasn’t come from the many – it’s come from the top 10% as the “wealth effect” from rising asset prices has boosted spending.</li>
<li>But it works in reverse too.  Since the richest make up nearly half of America’s consumer spending, that could lead to a serious economic fallout.</li>
<li>It’s worth considering protecting your portfolio. I’ve pulled together one list of companies that should do well and another that could suffer from the change in climate.</li>
</ul>


The US economy’s resilience hasn’t come from the many – it’s come from the top 10% as the “wealth effect” from rising asset prices has boosted spending.
But it works in reverse too.  Since the richest make up nearly half of America’s consumer spending, that could lead to a serious economic fallout.
It’s worth considering protecting your portfolio. I’ve pulled together one list of companies that should do well and another that could suffer from the change in climate.


A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-acquisitions/esr-bidders-said-to-weigh-bringing-in-more-investors-for-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-amc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45499:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Prudential AMC</a> is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and valuations.</li>
</ul>



ICICI Prudential AMC is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and valuations.


ICICI Pru AMC IPO - Doesn’t Need to Trade at a Discount

ICICI Prudential AMC / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-amc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45499:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Prudential AMC</a> is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.</li>
</ul>



ICICI Prudential AMC is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.


ICICI Pru AMC Pre-IPO - Ticking All the Right Boxes

United States

Blackstone Inc. operates as an investment company. The Company focuses on real estate, hedge funds, private equity, leveraged lending, senior debts, and rescue financing. Blackstone serves customers worldwide.

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Blackstone (BX US)

US Market: WALK TO THE EXIT NOW BEFORE EVERYONE STARTS RUNNING!

The US market is weakening again as an interday reversal after Nvidia results foreshadows continued selling in the AI theme. Market breadth is...

David Mudd

A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal

The top 10% account for around 50% of consumer spending in the US. This insight looks at the sectors and companies that could win and lose from the...

Finimize Research

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

The probability of an offer remains high, and the latest Bloomberg reports suggest progress towards a binding proposal. Our best guess is that an...

Arun George

ICICI Pru AMC IPO - Doesn’t Need to Trade at a Discount

ICICI Prudential AMC is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and valuations.

Sumeet Singh

ICICI Pru AMC Pre-IPO - Ticking All the Right Boxes

ICICI Prudential AMC is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we look at the company's past performance.

Sumeet Singh

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