Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> reported its 3Q2021 results on Monday (08th November) which saw total revenue increasing 3.0% YoY to RMB7,805m while adjusted OP for the quarter declined 46.7% YoY during the period to RMB671m. The reported revenue for the quarter was 40bps lower than consensus estimates of RMB7,835m, however, operating profit for the quarter was 27.0% below consensus estimates OP of RMB919m.<div>TME’s quarterly revenues reported the lowest YoY growth during the third quarter since 2017 while Social entertainment services segment reported a YoY decline in revenues for the first time during the period.</div><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/606/original/image_91330796321636446663772.png?1636446664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240606"></figure></div>

Tencent Music (TME US) reported its 3Q2021 results on Monday (08th November) which saw total revenue increasing 3.0% YoY to RMB7,805m while adjusted OP for the quarter declined 46.7% YoY during the period to RMB671m. The reported revenue for the quarter was 40bps lower than consensus estimates of RMB7,835m, however, operating profit for the quarter was 27.0% below consensus estimates OP of RMB919m.TME’s quarterly revenues reported the lowest YoY growth during the third quarter since 2017 while Social entertainment services segment reported a YoY decline in revenues for the first time during the period.

TME: Earnings Growth Slowing Down; Entertainment Under Pressure Due to Regulation and Competition

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>Social entertainment revenue decreased YoY for the first time since IPO.</li>
<li>TME failed to raise revenue growth by balancing the growth of users and revenue per user.</li>
<li>Music was not impacted by the new policy.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a downside of 5% for 2022.</li>
</ul>


Social entertainment revenue decreased YoY for the first time since IPO.
TME failed to raise revenue growth by balancing the growth of users and revenue per user.
Music was not impacted by the new policy.
We believe there will be a downside of 5% for 2022.


Tencent Music (TME): 3Q21, Entertainment Revenue Decreased for First Time

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> has had an exceptionally volatile 12 months of trading. Following a &gt;200% share price surge between October 2020 and March 2021, the share price has corrected 77%, wiping out nearly $24bn in market value. The significant sell-off, coupled with less severe earnings expectation downgrades (-18%) from the sell-side, has resulted in Vipshop de-rating from a peak forward PE ratio of 25.3x to only 6.9x, which is the cheapest the stock has ever been. 
In this insight, we take a closer look at the meaningful market events which have driven the sell-off in Vipshop as well as the short- and longer-term earnings outlook for the company. 
Going into their 3Q21 reporting period, Vipshop is facing an exceptionally high growth base set in the comparative period as well as macro-economic headwinds due to a slowing Chinese economy and retail spending, which could result in the continuation of the earnings downgrade cycle over the short- to medium-term. However, trading on an estimated 5.3x ex-cash forward PE ratio likely implies that the buy-side has factored most of this in and we are nearing the point of peak pessimism.

Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) has had an exceptionally volatile 12 months of trading. Following a &gt;200% share price surge between October 2020 and March 2021, the share price has corrected 77%, wiping out nearly $24bn in market value. The significant sell-off, coupled with less severe earnings expectation downgrades (-18%) from the sell-side, has resulted in Vipshop de-rating from a peak forward PE ratio of 25.3x to only 6.9x, which is the cheapest the stock has ever been. 
In this insight, we take a closer look at the meaningful market events which have driven the sell-off in Vipshop as well as the short- and longer-term earnings outlook for the company. 
Going into their 3Q21 reporting period, Vipshop is facing an exceptionally high growth base set in the comparative period as well as macro-economic headwinds due to a slowing Chinese economy and retail spending, which could result in the continuation of the earnings downgrade cycle over the short- to medium-term. However, trading on an estimated 5.3x ex-cash forward PE ratio likely implies that the buy-side has factored most of this in and we are nearing the point of peak pessimism.

Several news media outlets reported in September that ByteDance (1439927D CH) has made plans to launch a music streaming app in China later this year. The online music streaming market in China is long dominated by Tencent Music who previously held exclusive music licensing agreements with global music streaming giants Warner Music Group (WMG), Universal Music (UMG) and Sony Music in China. However, TME was ordered to give-up these exclusive music licensing agreements by the country’s market regulator SAMR (state Administration of Market Regulation) and the company announced in August that it has relinquished all of its exclusive music licensing agreements as per the order of the Chinese regulators.TME’s shares are currently trading at US$6.87 per ADR at its all-time low and the shares are down 77.4% compared to its peak of US$30.42 per ADR in mid-March.

TME: ByteDance’s Entry into Music Streaming to Further Threaten TME’s Dominance

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Being “Seriously Dealt” With: No sooner than Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] virtual call ended with a competitor dismissing new gaming restrictions did the mainland Chinese regulator haul in gaming industry executives for a complete dressing down. It’s probably fair to say, Tencent’s recent hubris was their Jack Ma moment. It kind of makes one wonder what the authorities have planned next for Tencent. As the screws continue to tighten, the question becomes whether or not Tencent can narrow the regulatory discount, or whether these issues will remain a persistent overhang?; *As We’ve Just Learned - Ignoring It, Doesn’t Make It Go Away: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets activities has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". There remains no doubt, in our view, that Tencent will follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in the formation of a financial holding company. It’s pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss this matter when financial services are the largest component of earnings and growth; and *Prior To The War On Gaming, Results Have Already Deteriorated: Tencent’s 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) linked quarter – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged.

*Being “Seriously Dealt” With: No sooner than Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] virtual call ended with a competitor dismissing new gaming restrictions did the mainland Chinese regulator haul in gaming industry executives for a complete dressing down. It’s probably fair to say, Tencent’s recent hubris was their Jack Ma moment. It kind of makes one wonder what the authorities have planned next for Tencent. As the screws continue to tighten, the question becomes whether or not Tencent can narrow the regulatory discount, or whether these issues will remain a persistent overhang?; *As We’ve Just Learned - Ignoring It, Doesn’t Make It Go Away: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets activities has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". There remains no doubt, in our view, that Tencent will follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in the formation of a financial holding company. It’s pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss this matter when financial services are the largest component of earnings and growth; and *Prior To The War On Gaming, Results Have Already Deteriorated: Tencent’s 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) linked quarter – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged.    

Tencent Holdings – Modern Day Opium War

China

Tencent Music Entertainment operates an online music entertainment platform in China. The Company offers platform that comprises of online music, recording, music-centric live streaming enabling users to discover, listen, sing, watch, perform, and socialize music.

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Tencent Music (TME US)

TME: Earnings Growth Slowing Down; Entertainment Under Pressure Due to Regulation and Competition

Total revenues for the quarter saw the lowest YoY growth since 2017 while Social entertainment services segment reported a YoY decline in revenues...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Tencent Music (TME): 3Q21, Entertainment Revenue Decreased for First Time

Social entertainment revenue decreased YoY for the first time since IPO. TME failed to raise revenue growth by balancing the growths of user and...

Ming Lu

Vipshop: Cheapest It Has Ever Been

In this insight, we take a closer look at the meaningful market events which have driven the sell-off in Vipshop as well as the short- and longer...

Wium Malan, CFA

TME: ByteDance’s Entry into Music Streaming to Further Threaten TME’s Dominance

ByteDance has made plans to launch a music streaming app in China later this year which is likely to further threaten TME's market dominance as it...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Tencent Holdings – Modern Day Opium War

TENCENT HOLDINGS: The mainland Chinese regulator hauled in gaming industry executives for a complete dressing down over the recent August gaming...

Thomas J. Monaco

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