Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>In our previous notes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-kanzhun-full-truck-and-didi-regulators-sending-a-message" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - Kanzhun, Full Truck and Didi - Regulators Sending a Message </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-now-the-message-is-loud-and-getting-clearer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - Now the Message Is Loud and Getting Clearer, </a>we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms along with the general crackdown on overseas listings for Chinese companies. </p>
<p>The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) came out with draft cyber security review measures. </p>
</div><div><p>We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-sec-notice-instead-of-three-probably-have-four-years-till-2025-correction-overdone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone, </a> we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-a-new-act-aims-to-put-an-end-to-china-adr-ipos" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs</a>, we spoke about the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies.</li>
</ul></div>


In our previous notes China ADRs - Kanzhun, Full Truck and Didi - Regulators Sending a Message and China ADRs - Now the Message Is Loud and Getting Clearer, we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms along with the general crackdown on overseas listings for Chinese companies. 
The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) came out with draft cyber security review measures. 
We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:

China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 
In China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone,  we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. 
In China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs, we spoke about the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies.


China ADRs - Draft Cyber Security Review Measures - ADRs Listing Likely Shut, HK Might Face Delay

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a>  is a leading music streaming platform in China and the company is backed-by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17203:1" rel="noopener">NetEase Inc (NTES US)</a> , one of the largest games and entertainment company in China. The company has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) and according to news media outlets, the company plans to raise proceeds of about US$1bn.</p><p>Cloud Village generates revenues from online music services and social entertainment services (live streaming) and the competes with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a>  in China and the two companies operate similar business models and are backed by two large internet companies in China.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> has a large paid user base compared to Cloud Village and generates operating profits whereas Cloud Village has not yet been able to make gross margins though gross losses are declining. However, TME is currently probed by the State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) in China over its past deals. TME is formed by the acquisition of Kugou and Kuwo apps and the regulators have informed TME should expect to give up exclusive music rights and may even be forced to sell its previously acquired businesses of Kugou and Kuwo in 2016. Kugou and Kuwo account for about 64% of the total MAUs of TME’s online music streaming business and having to let go of these two businesses will wipe out a significant portion of TME’s users and revenues.</p><p>In this insight, we examine Cloud Village’s business model, its segments and financials. We plan to compare the company’s financials and KPIs against TME in a follow-up insight.</p>

Cloud Village (CLV HK)  is a leading music streaming platform in China and the company is backed-by NetEase Inc (NTES US) , one of the largest games and entertainment company in China. The company has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) and according to news media outlets, the company plans to raise proceeds of about US$1bn.Cloud Village generates revenues from online music services and social entertainment services (live streaming) and the competes with Tencent Music (TME US)  in China and the two companies operate similar business models and are backed by two large internet companies in China.Tencent Music (TME US) has a large paid user base compared to Cloud Village and generates operating profits whereas Cloud Village has not yet been able to make gross margins though gross losses are declining. However, TME is currently probed by the State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) in China over its past deals. TME is formed by the acquisition of Kugou and Kuwo apps and the regulators have informed TME should expect to give up exclusive music rights and may even be forced to sell its previously acquired businesses of Kugou and Kuwo in 2016. Kugou and Kuwo account for about 64% of the total MAUs of TME’s online music streaming business and having to let go of these two businesses will wipe out a significant portion of TME’s users and revenues.In this insight, we examine Cloud Village’s business model, its segments and financials. We plan to compare the company’s financials and KPIs against TME in a follow-up insight.

Cloud Village IPO: Improving Financials and Less Fear of Regulatory Crackdowns for Investors

<p>In our previous note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-kanzhun-full-truck-and-didi-regulators-sending-a-message" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - Kanzhun, Full Truck and Didi - Regulators Sending a Message,</a> we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme of a general crackdown on overseas listings for Chinese companies. </p>
<div>
<p>We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-sec-notice-instead-of-three-probably-have-four-years-till-2025-correction-overdone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone, </a> we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-a-new-act-aims-to-put-an-end-to-china-adr-ipos" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs</a>, we spoke about the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>In this note, we'll talk about the implications of the recent China regulatory announcements.</p>
</div>

In our previous note China ADRs - Kanzhun, Full Truck and Didi - Regulators Sending a Message, we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme of a general crackdown on overseas listings for Chinese companies. 

We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:




China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 
In China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone,  we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. 
In China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs, we spoke about the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. 



In this note, we'll talk about the implications of the recent China regulatory announcements.


China ADRs - Now the Message Is Loud and Getting Clearer

Event-Driven

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>, the world’s largest mobility technology platform, raised around US$4.4bn in its US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, along with other investors.</p>
<p>While the company has been at the receiving end of regulatory oversight before, the announcements over the past few days have come at unusual velocity. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates.</p>
</div><div><p>We have covered the deal background and financials overview in our previous notes<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-one-of-asia-s-largest-ipos-this-year-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-one-of-asia-s-largest-ipos-this-year-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - One of Asia’s Largest IPOs This Year - Tearsheet</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-has-a-principal-agent-problem-rumoured-target-valuation-is-a-stretch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Has a Principal Agent Problem, Rumoured Target Valuation Is a Stretch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-pre-ipo-competitive-in-car-hailing-uncompetitive-in-others-generally-valuable" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DIDI (滴滴) Pre-IPO: Competitive in Car Hailing, Uncompetitive In “Others”, Generally Valuable</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-bull-case-index-inclusion-uber-exit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Bull Case, Index Inclusion, Uber Exit</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-ipo-at-fair-value-with-partial-lock-up-and-index-inclusion-pulling-it-either-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing IPO - At Fair Value, with Partial Lock-Up and Index Inclusion Pulling It Either Way</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-ipo-trading-upsize-will-ensures-index-inclusion-lock-up-remains-a-wildcard" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing IPO Trading - Upsize Will Ensures Index Inclusion, Lock-Up Remains a Wildcard</a></li>
</ul></div>


DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), the world’s largest mobility technology platform, raised around US$4.4bn in its US listing. It is backed by Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Tencent (700 HK), along with other investors.
While the company has been at the receiving end of regulatory oversight before, the announcements over the past few days have come at unusual velocity. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates.
We have covered the deal background and financials overview in our previous notes:

DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - One of Asia’s Largest IPOs This Year - Tearsheet.
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Has a Principal Agent Problem, Rumoured Target Valuation Is a Stretch
DIDI (滴滴) Pre-IPO: Competitive in Car Hailing, Uncompetitive In “Others”, Generally Valuable
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Valuation
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Bull Case, Index Inclusion, Uber Exit
DiDi Chuxing IPO - At Fair Value, with Partial Lock-Up and Index Inclusion Pulling It Either Way
DiDi Chuxing IPO Trading - Upsize Will Ensures Index Inclusion, Lock-Up Remains a Wildcard


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soulgate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33304:1" rel="noopener">Soulgate (SSR US)</a> is an alternative social networking platform that lets users have virtual identities and aims to recommend to each user (referred to as a Souler) curated content and other Soulers with similar personalities, lifestyles and interests, enabling more in-depth interactions and more meaningful connections. Soulgate is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> (49.9% of outstanding shares, 25.7% of outstanding shares). </p></div><div>
<p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.0-15.00 per ADS, Soulgate will have a market cap of $1.7 billion. New investors Janus Henderson and Boyu Capital intend to purchase a total of $80 million worth of ADSs in the offering (43.3% of the deal). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds including the concurrent private placement are $257.3 million. </p>
<p>Soulgate will also raise an additional $89 million in a concurrent private placement with miHoYo. miHoYo was founded in 2012 by three Shanghai Jiaotong University graduate students. miHoYo is the creator of <em>Genshin Impact</em>, an open-world action role-playing game released in 2020, and one of the highest-grossing mobile games. It is not entirely clear if there are any near-term synergies through this investment. Currently, Soulgate's exposure to games is largely limited to its <em>Werewolf Rooms</em> (a subset of its <em>Animated Partyroom</em> app functionality) which enable users to play the popular board game <em>Werewolf</em>.</p>
</div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/soulgate-ipo-initiation-lost-soul" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51651" rel="noopener">Soulgate IPO Initiation: Lost Soul,</a> we opined at first glance, Soulgate is well-positioned to benefit from a sizeable China’s mobile social networking market. The strong growth in users, fast-paced revenue growth and ongoing revenue diversification suggest that Soulgate is heading in the right direction. However, the high S&amp;M expenses which exceeded revenue in each of the last three quarters, suggests that Soulgate is aggressively chasing user growth without paying much heed to monetisation and payback periods. This modus operandi is highly reflective of growth at all costs strategy. Overall, we think that the negatives in the Soulgate story warrant a pass.  </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range fairly values Soulgate for its forecasted growth. Overall, as we remain unconvinced that Soulgate's growth at all costs strategy will generate shareholder value, we are inclined to give this IPO a pass. </p></div>
</div></div>

Soulgate (SSR US) is an alternative social networking platform that lets users have virtual identities and aims to recommend to each user (referred to as a Souler) curated content and other Soulers with similar personalities, lifestyles and interests, enabling more in-depth interactions and more meaningful connections. Soulgate is backed by Tencent (700 HK) (49.9% of outstanding shares, 25.7% of outstanding shares). 
At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.0-15.00 per ADS, Soulgate will have a market cap of $1.7 billion. New investors Janus Henderson and Boyu Capital intend to purchase a total of $80 million worth of ADSs in the offering (43.3% of the deal). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds including the concurrent private placement are $257.3 million. 
Soulgate will also raise an additional $89 million in a concurrent private placement with miHoYo. miHoYo was founded in 2012 by three Shanghai Jiaotong University graduate students. miHoYo is the creator of Genshin Impact, an open-world action role-playing game released in 2020, and one of the highest-grossing mobile games. It is not entirely clear if there are any near-term synergies through this investment. Currently, Soulgate's exposure to games is largely limited to its Werewolf Rooms (a subset of its Animated Partyroom app functionality) which enable users to play the popular board game Werewolf.

In Soulgate IPO Initiation: Lost Soul, we opined at first glance, Soulgate is well-positioned to benefit from a sizeable China’s mobile social networking market. The strong growth in users, fast-paced revenue growth and ongoing revenue diversification suggest that Soulgate is heading in the right direction. However, the high S&amp;M expenses which exceeded revenue in each of the last three quarters, suggests that Soulgate is aggressively chasing user growth without paying much heed to monetisation and payback periods. This modus operandi is highly reflective of growth at all costs strategy. Overall, we think that the negatives in the Soulgate story warrant a pass.  
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range fairly values Soulgate for its forecasted growth. Overall, as we remain unconvinced that Soulgate's growth at all costs strategy will generate shareholder value, we are inclined to give this IPO a pass. 


China

Tencent Music Entertainment operates an online music entertainment platform in China. The Company offers platform that comprises of online music, recording, music-centric live streaming enabling users to discover, listen, sing, watch, perform, and socialize music.

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Tencent Music (TME US)

China ADRs - Draft Cyber Security Review Measures - ADRs Listing Likely Shut, HK Might Face Delay

In our previous notes we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) recently came...

Sumeet Singh

Cloud Village IPO: Improving Financials and Less Fear of Regulatory Crackdowns for Investors

Cloud Village competes with TME who is currently probed by the SAMR over its past deals involving the acquisition of Kugou and Kuwo who account for...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

China ADRs - Now the Message Is Loud and Getting Clearer

In our previous note we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme...

Sumeet Singh

DiDi Chuxing - Double Regulatory Whammy

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), the world’s largest mobility technology platform, raised around US$4.4bn in its US listing. The company has been at the...

Sumeet Singh

Soulgate IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range fairly values Soulgate for its forecasted growth. However, as we remain unconvinced that Soulgate's strategy will generate...

Arun George

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