Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024</li>
<li>This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023</li>
<li>Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.</li>
</ul>


The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.


2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

On Semiconductor / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on ON Semiconductor Corporation, a well-known provider of intelligent sensing and power solutions.</li><li>The management has streamlined their product line by eliminating price-sensitive products in favour of fiercely competitive Intelligent Power and Sensing Solutions.</li><li>Because of the solutions' strong performance, the depth of their intelligent power and sensor portfolio, and end-to-end manufacturing capabilities, their clients select ON Semiconductors as a strategic partner to support their long-term technology roadmaps.</li></ul>

This is our first report on ON Semiconductor Corporation, a well-known provider of intelligent sensing and power solutions.The management has streamlined their product line by eliminating price-sensitive products in favour of fiercely competitive Intelligent Power and Sensing Solutions.Because of the solutions' strong performance, the depth of their intelligent power and sensor portfolio, and end-to-end manufacturing capabilities, their clients select ON Semiconductors as a strategic partner to support their long-term technology roadmaps.

ON Semiconductor Corporation- Initiation of Coverage – Capacity Expansion & Other Drivers

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Overearning Short Candidates: Alpha Metall, MarineMx, ON Semi, Kulicke & Soffa, Pool Co, Century Com

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few changes for stocks across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>, MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.</li>
<li>There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keurig-dr-pepper-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15411:1" rel="noopener">Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vici-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28786:1" rel="noopener">VICI Properties Inc (VICI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are quite a few changes for stocks across the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX), MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.
There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and VICI Properties Inc (VICI US). 


S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 3 June 2022, the S&amp;P DJI Global Index team announced changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P Midcap 400, and S&amp;P SmallCap 600 indices (and a number of other smaller indices).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vici-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28786:1" rel="noopener"></a>VICI Properties (VICI) will replace Cerner (CERN) in S&amp;P500 at close of 7 June. Keurig DrPepper and ON Semiconductor will replace UnderArmour and IPG Photonics at close 17 June.</li>
<li>This set of rebalances is particularly interesting in terms of non-offsetting flows, unlike many rebals which are just a game of musical shares between the three top indices.</li>
</ul>


On 3 June 2022, the S&amp;P DJI Global Index team announced changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P Midcap 400, and S&amp;P SmallCap 600 indices (and a number of other smaller indices).

VICI Properties (VICI) will replace Cerner (CERN) in S&amp;P500 at close of 7 June. Keurig DrPepper and ON Semiconductor will replace UnderArmour and IPG Photonics at close 17 June.
This set of rebalances is particularly interesting in terms of non-offsetting flows, unlike many rebals which are just a game of musical shares between the three top indices.


S&P500, S&PMid400, and S&PSmall600 Index Changes for June 2022 - More Interesting Than Usual

United States

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

On Semiconductor (ON US)

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

What's happening in semiconductors? When will the downturn end? What does this mean to chip stock prices? This Insight provides some concrete...

Jim Handy

ON Semiconductor Corporation- Initiation of Coverage – Capacity Expansion & Other Drivers

This is our first report on ON Semiconductor Corporation, a well-known provider of intelligent sensing and power solutions. The management has...

Baptista Research

Overearning Short Candidates: Alpha Metall, MarineMx, ON Semi, Kulicke & Soffa, Pool Co, Century Com

Over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the margin increases are either unsustainable or fraudulent. This week: Alpha Metall,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

There are 3 changes for the S&P500, plus more changes for the MidCap and SmallCap indices. We estimate a one-way trade of US$30bn across the...

Brian Freitas

S&P500, S&PMid400, and S&PSmall600 Index Changes for June 2022 - More Interesting Than Usual

The June 2022 S&P500, S&P Midcap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 Rebalance was announced on 3 June 2022. VICI will replace CERN at the close of 7 June,...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)