Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324</li>
<li>But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction</li>
<li>We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform</li>
</ul>


Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform


Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

<ul>
<li>Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)</li>
<li>Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted</li>
</ul>


Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics
Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)
Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

<ul>
<li>Two years after most Covid restrictions ended, pace of travel recovery has slowed, naturally</li>
<li>Gov't estimates ahead of LNY travel period seem tepid, actual growth could exceed them</li>
<li>Trip.com has been stellar performer in segment, but in recent months airlines outperformed</li>
</ul>


Two years after most Covid restrictions ended, pace of travel recovery has slowed, naturally
Gov't estimates ahead of LNY travel period seem tepid, actual growth could exceed them
Trip.com has been stellar performer in segment, but in recent months airlines outperformed


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Dec & Q424 Numbers | Airlines Outperform Trip.com (January 2025)

<ul>
<li>In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns</li>
<li>In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business</li>
<li>In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing</li>
</ul>


In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns
In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business
In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing


Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

<ul>
<li>In this insight we chart the progress of China's tourism recovery vs pre-pandemic levels</li>
<li>In October 2024, Chinese <em>outbound</em> (international) demand finally reached pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>The recovery in <em>domestic</em> activity was completed earlier and more quickly than outbound</li>
</ul>


In this insight we chart the progress of China's tourism recovery vs pre-pandemic levels
In October 2024, Chinese outbound (international) demand finally reached pre-Covid levels
The recovery in domestic activity was completed earlier and more quickly than outbound


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Five Easy Charts Showing China's Tourism Recovery To Date

China

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

January and Lunar New Year travel activity data seem OK, but not spectacular. Chinese tourists seem eager to travel, but there are few signs they...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Dec & Q424 Numbers | Airlines Outperform Trip.com (January 2025)

December 2024 travel growth moderated, as the post-pandemic recovery has by now largely run its course. After a stellar 2023-24 run, shares of...

Tracking Traffic

Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

In this insight we outline the important 2025 themes & events facing the three sectors we cover in our monthly Tracking Traffic series: Container...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Five Easy Charts Showing China's Tourism Recovery To Date

In this insight we illustrate the trajectory of China's ongoing recovery in outbound and domestic travel activity in five easy charts.

Tracking Traffic

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