Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Softbank Corp. posted a solid Q2 helped by Internet upside, a one-time gain from how it accounts for handset instalment plans and solid upside in enterprise sales as telework/WFH trends boost sales. The company kept FY guidance intact despite H1 outperformance as there could be headwinds from mobile pricing changes and higher spending at Z Holdings but management confidence on the analyst call was high.  Importantly, the company also provided reassurance on the dividend and reduced regulatory exposure.

Softbank Corp. posted a solid Q2 helped by Internet upside, a one-time gain from how it accounts for handset instalment plans and solid upside in enterprise sales as telework/WFH trends boost sales. The company kept FY guidance intact despite H1 outperformance as there could be headwinds from mobile pricing changes and higher spending at Z Holdings but management confidence on the analyst call was high.  Importantly, the company also provided reassurance on the dividend and reduced regulatory exposure. 

Softbank Corp - Q2 20 Results: Positive Financial Report and Dividend Reassurance

Rakuten provided an update on the mobile business today including the long-awaited introduction of eKYC (know your customer) and further reductions in fees but network coverage remains its largest challenge and this is unlikely to change in the near- to mid-term. The company also announced that 5G services would not be priced at a premium, in-line with campaign pricing from the incumbents and further evidence that the tech cycle upgrade is not going to generate consumer revenue growth.

Rakuten provided an update on the mobile business today including the long-awaited introduction of eKYC (know your customer) and further reductions in fees but network coverage remains its largest challenge and this is unlikely to change in the near- to mid-term. The company also announced that 5G services would not be priced at a premium, in-line with campaign pricing from the incumbents and further evidence that the tech cycle upgrade is not going to generate consumer revenue growth.   

Rakuten - Mobile Update: E-KYC Enables Faster Migration but Network Coverage Challenging

This was an interesting (and busy) report. KDDI addressed recent industry trends like new revenue streams (Toyota agreement), regulatory change (a new, eSIM focused MVNO), and new technology (all 5G handset lineup). Meanwhile, confirmation it will buy back shares (c. ¥150bn net) boosts its shareholder return profile vs NTT and signals regulatory pressure is easing. As with DoCoMo, user churn was near record lows highlighting the relatively soft impact from Rakuten’s network launch on the incumbents.

This was an interesting (and busy) report. KDDI addressed recent industry trends like new revenue streams (Toyota agreement), regulatory change (a new, eSIM focused MVNO), and new technology (all 5G handset lineup). Meanwhile, confirmation it will buy back shares (c. ¥150bn net) boosts its shareholder return profile vs NTT and signals regulatory pressure is easing. As with DoCoMo, user churn was near record lows highlighting the relatively soft impact from Rakuten’s network launch on the incumbents.  

KDDI - Q2 20 Results: Embracing the Industry’s New Look

NTT DoCoMo posted results ahead of consensus expectations boosted by steady improvement in mobile service revenue and record profits in its non-telco Smart Life business. The solid quarter provides some relief for parent NTT which is buying in minority shareholders at a premium although concerns on whether DoCoMo will need to aggressively respond to pressure for price reductions will linger.  Continued low churn rates read positively across to fellow incumbents Softbank and KDDI but less so for Rakuten whose impact on the industry has been muted so far.

NTT DoCoMo posted results ahead of consensus expectations boosted by steady improvement in mobile service revenue and record profits in its non-telco Smart Life business. The solid quarter provides some relief for parent NTT which is buying in minority shareholders at a premium although concerns on whether DoCoMo will need to aggressively respond to pressure for price reductions will linger.  Continued low churn rates read positively across to fellow incumbents Softbank and KDDI but less so for Rakuten whose impact on the industry has been muted so far.  

NTT DoCoMo Q2 20 Results: Last Public Report Ends on a Relative High Note

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

The stock price of the tiny, embattled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/towa-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18283:1" rel="noopener">Towa Bank (8558 JP)</a>, a small Japanese secondary regional bank from Gunma Prefecture just north of Tokyo, at one point jumped 13.5% on Friday on 17x normal trading volume after the bank confirmed it was in “co-operative discussions” with online financial specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a>.Financial media have suggested the bank is considering a tie-up with SBI through a small mutual shareholding (1% of Towa Bank stock  -  worth roughly ¥275 million  -  for up to ¥200 million in SBI shares) and the establishment of  a jointly-managed fund to support local businesses.  Towa Bank has stated that nothing has been decided as yet.  If media reports are correct, this would be the fifth such investment by financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao in Japan’s struggling regional banking sector.  However, there are some important differences with this tie-up.Towa Bank has a long and unenviable history of poor credit decisions and consequent hefty losses, prompting a taxpayer-funded bail-out in FY3/2010.  The current president has been working hard to turn the bank’s fortunes around, managing to repay ¥20.0 billion in public funds in FY3/2019.  Even so, Towa Bank still has ¥15.0 billion (US$143 million) in public funds to repay, and profits have been shrinking rapidly.While this may be seen as another ‘stepping-stone’ for SBI Group’s president and financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao in his bid to create a “fourth megabank”, investors should bear in mind that the net risk investment amount is little more than chump change for an enterprise like SBI.  Moreover, the apparent emphasis on support for local industry, rather than support for Towa Bank itself, suggests that this tie-up is not a ‘rescue’ of Towa Bank by a ‘white knight’, but an opportunity for a financial entrepreneur to gain valuable access to Towa Bank’s retail client base for a very modest cash outlay.  As such, foreign investors would be well advised to steer clear of Towa Bank stock, as valuations are already demanding.  Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to foreign investors considering investing in the Japanese banking sector in CY2020.

The stock price of the tiny, embattled Towa Bank (8558 JP), a small Japanese secondary regional bank from Gunma Prefecture just north of Tokyo, at one point jumped 13.5% on Friday on 17x normal trading volume after the bank confirmed it was in “co-operative discussions” with online financial specialist Sbi Holdings (8473 JP).Financial media have suggested the bank is considering a tie-up with SBI through a small mutual shareholding (1% of Towa Bank stock  -  worth roughly ¥275 million  -  for up to ¥200 million in SBI shares) and the establishment of  a jointly-managed fund to support local businesses.  Towa Bank has stated that nothing has been decided as yet.  If media reports are correct, this would be the fifth such investment by financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao in Japan’s struggling regional banking sector.  However, there are some important differences with this tie-up.Towa Bank has a long and unenviable history of poor credit decisions and consequent hefty losses, prompting a taxpayer-funded bail-out in FY3/2010.  The current president has been working hard to turn the bank’s fortunes around, managing to repay ¥20.0 billion in public funds in FY3/2019.  Even so, Towa Bank still has ¥15.0 billion (US$143 million) in public funds to repay, and profits have been shrinking rapidly.While this may be seen as another ‘stepping-stone’ for SBI Group’s president and financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao in his bid to create a “fourth megabank”, investors should bear in mind that the net risk investment amount is little more than chump change for an enterprise like SBI.  Moreover, the apparent emphasis on support for local industry, rather than support for Towa Bank itself, suggests that this tie-up is not a ‘rescue’ of Towa Bank by a ‘white knight’, but an opportunity for a financial entrepreneur to gain valuable access to Towa Bank’s retail client base for a very modest cash outlay.  As such, foreign investors would be well advised to steer clear of Towa Bank stock, as valuations are already demanding.  Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to foreign investors considering investing in the Japanese banking sector in CY2020.

Towa Bank (8558 JP):  Another Notch in the Bedpost

Japan

Softbank Corporation provides mobile phone telecommunication and networking services. The Company offers mobile communication opening, short messaging function opening, video function opening, and other services. Softbank also provides mobile phones.

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Softbank Corp (9434 JP)

Softbank Corp - Q2 20 Results: Positive Financial Report and Dividend Reassurance

For Q2 20, Softbank beat financial expectations, reassured on the dividend and highlighted how diversification has lowered regulatory exposure.

Kirk Boodry

Rakuten - Mobile Update: E-KYC Enables Faster Migration but Network Coverage Challenging

Rakuten provided an update on the mobile business including the launch of eKYC functionality but comments on network coverage clearly show this...

Kirk Boodry

KDDI - Q2 20 Results: Embracing the Industry’s New Look

At Q2 results, KDDI addressed recent industry trends like new revenue streams, regulatory change, and new technology. A share buyback boosts...

Kirk Boodry

NTT DoCoMo Q2 20 Results: Last Public Report Ends on a Relative High Note

DoCoMo results were ahead of expectations in its last report as a public company. That's good for NTT and there is a positive read across to...

Kirk Boodry

Towa Bank (8558 JP): Another Notch in the Bedpost

The evidence suggests that this is not a 'white knight' riding to the rescue, but another opportunity for Yoshitaka Kitao to gain access to a...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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