HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The growth of Innovent’s product revenue is always commendable. Based on strong growth momentum, product revenue in 2025 would be above RMB10 billion. Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 2025 is expected.</li>
<li>Innovent’s peak sales would reach the level of RMB20 billion in 2027. RMB100 billion is the valuation bottom line in the short term. In mid-to-long term, the highlight is IBI363.</li>
<li>Current valuation has basically priced in favorable factors for fundamentals for the next three years.Investors can wait patiently for a pullback and buy the stock at a more cost-effective valuation.</li>
</ul>


The growth of Innovent’s product revenue is always commendable. Based on strong growth momentum, product revenue in 2025 would be above RMB10 billion. Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 2025 is expected.
Innovent’s peak sales would reach the level of RMB20 billion in 2027. RMB100 billion is the valuation bottom line in the short term. In mid-to-long term, the highlight is IBI363.
Current valuation has basically priced in favorable factors for fundamentals for the next three years.Investors can wait patiently for a pullback and buy the stock at a more cost-effective valuation.


2026 High Conviction - China Healthcare: High-Certainty Investment Opportunity Has Emerged

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> has announced 1H25 result, with total revenue increasing 51% YoY. The company recorded its maiden net profit of RMB834M on a reported basis.</li>
<li>Despite an overcrowded PD-1 inhibitor market in China, core oncology product, Tyvyt maintained good growth momentum. Tyvyt is under NDA review for its ninth and tenth indications.</li>
<li>In June, Innovent received approval for mazdutide, first-in-class chronic weight management drug in China. In 2H25, mazdutide is expected to receive approval for a second indication in type 2 diabetes.</li>
</ul>



Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) has announced 1H25 result, with total revenue increasing 51% YoY. The company recorded its maiden net profit of RMB834M on a reported basis.
Despite an overcrowded PD-1 inhibitor market in China, core oncology product, Tyvyt maintained good growth momentum. Tyvyt is under NDA review for its ninth and tenth indications.
In June, Innovent received approval for mazdutide, first-in-class chronic weight management drug in China. In 2H25, mazdutide is expected to receive approval for a second indication in type 2 diabetes.


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK): Dual Engine Growth Strategy Is Yielding Result

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following two periods of profitability, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

<ul>
<li>Whether it is big pharmaceutical company or Biopharma that currently generates revenue/profits mainly through one or two products, they may not be able to "defend" successfully in long term.</li>
<li>The logic for innovative medical device is similar to innovative drugs - It takes 1-2 years from the turning point of policies to the turning point of fundamentals.</li>
<li>The Innovent-Takeda deal is logical. However, stock price performance of Innovent was disappointing, which is due to the “turning point” of HK biotech sector.The current decline is far from over.</li>
</ul>


Whether it is big pharmaceutical company or Biopharma that currently generates revenue/profits mainly through one or two products, they may not be able to "defend" successfully in long term.
The logic for innovative medical device is similar to innovative drugs - It takes 1-2 years from the turning point of policies to the turning point of fundamentals.
The Innovent-Takeda deal is logical. However, stock price performance of Innovent was disappointing, which is due to the “turning point” of HK biotech sector.The current decline is far from over.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.26) - Turning Point of Medical Device, Innovent-Takeda Deal Makes Sense

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

<ul>
<li>Innovent Biologics published strong results that were ahead of expectations.</li>
<li>Despite the upgrades, Innovent’s plus 300 PE multiple will only unwind to 53 at the end of 2027.</li>
<li>Gauging from the disappointing results and poor share price performance from the two GLP-1 majors, the outlook for GLP-1s has deteriorated.</li>
</ul>


Innovent Biologics published strong results that were ahead of expectations.
Despite the upgrades, Innovent’s plus 300 PE multiple will only unwind to 53 at the end of 2027.
Gauging from the disappointing results and poor share price performance from the two GLP-1 majors, the outlook for GLP-1s has deteriorated.


Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) – Time to Take Profits (Bearish)

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

2026 High Conviction - China Healthcare: High-Certainty Investment Opportunity Has Emerged

Innovent's impressive growth trajectory is projected to continue, with product revenue expected to reach RMB20bn by 2027. Investors advised to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang