HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fruquintinib US sales continue to be the main performance driver. License-out expectations for surufatinib is low.Highlight for savolitinib is the combination with osimertinib for NSCLC, which would bring high growth.</li>
<li>Future playbook of HUTCHMED is “continued sharp reduction of expenses + milestones from Takeda based on fruquintinib overseas sales = rapid narrowng of losses”.2024 overseas market sales may exceed US$300m.</li>
<li>There is not much problem with HUTCHMED completing its performance guidance for the year 2024. Reasonable market value range for HUTCHMED is US$1.75-3.75 billion. Breakeven is expected in 2025.</li>
</ul>


Fruquintinib US sales continue to be the main performance driver. License-out expectations for surufatinib is low.Highlight for savolitinib is the combination with osimertinib for NSCLC, which would bring high growth.
Future playbook of HUTCHMED is “continued sharp reduction of expenses + milestones from Takeda based on fruquintinib overseas sales = rapid narrowng of losses”.2024 overseas market sales may exceed US$300m.
There is not much problem with HUTCHMED completing its performance guidance for the year 2024. Reasonable market value range for HUTCHMED is US$1.75-3.75 billion. Breakeven is expected in 2025.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) 24H1 - Fruquintinib's US Sales Beat; Break-Even Is Within Reach

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace, and we have quickly moved onto the development of a triple agonist drug.</li>
<li>First mover advantage is expected to lose steam as more effective GLP-1s are launched.</li>
<li>Scary side effects; challenged patents and strong competition will favour the cost-effective producers.</li>
</ul>


The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace, and we have quickly moved onto the development of a triple agonist drug.
First mover advantage is expected to lose steam as more effective GLP-1s are launched.
Scary side effects; challenged patents and strong competition will favour the cost-effective producers.


Equity Capital Markets

Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Elpiscience is incubated by LAV from the very beginning.The Company has strong capital operation capabilities, but the story of "founding team's decent background + star cornerstone investors" doesn't work anymore.</li>
<li>Elpiscience’s pipelines are still in early stage. However, investors are rational. They will no longer believe in those "good stories", but focus more on cash flow and drug sales revenue.</li>
<li>Elpiscience’s business model has raised concerns about its future product sales scale and profits.The market may not recognize the post-investment valuation of US$599 million if check the valuation of peers.</li>
</ul>


Elpiscience is incubated by LAV from the very beginning.The Company has strong capital operation capabilities, but the story of "founding team's decent background + star cornerstone investors" doesn't work anymore.
Elpiscience’s pipelines are still in early stage. However, investors are rational. They will no longer believe in those "good stories", but focus more on cash flow and drug sales revenue.
Elpiscience’s business model has raised concerns about its future product sales scale and profits.The market may not recognize the post-investment valuation of US$599 million if check the valuation of peers.


Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals - Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fosun's preferred arrangement for Henlius is to list the Company in A-shares.Since IPO in A-shares failed and Henlius has begun to generate profits, Fosun finally feels the need for privatization.</li>
<li>Due to its "flaws", undervaluation of Henlius in the Hong Kong stock market is difficult to fundamentally change. So, for conservative/cautious investors, Fosun's one-time acquisition at a 30% premium is attractive.</li>
<li>The Potential Share Alternative Offer seems a good option, but it is uncertain whether investors are still willing to believe in Fosun's "good story" - the future re-listing is uncertain.</li>
</ul>


Fosun's preferred arrangement for Henlius is to list the Company in A-shares.Since IPO in A-shares failed and Henlius has begun to generate profits, Fosun finally feels the need for privatization.
Due to its "flaws", undervaluation of Henlius in the Hong Kong stock market is difficult to fundamentally change. So, for conservative/cautious investors, Fosun's one-time acquisition at a 30% premium is attractive.
The Potential Share Alternative Offer seems a good option, but it is uncertain whether investors are still willing to believe in Fosun's "good story" - the future re-listing is uncertain.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) - The Story Behind Privatization

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kelun-biotech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36801:1" rel="noopener">Kelun Biotech</a> (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.
KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) 24H1 - Fruquintinib's US Sales Beat; Break-Even Is Within Reach

HUTCHMED's fruquintinib US sales and savolitinib combination with osimertinib for NSCLC will drive future growth. Breakeven in 2025 is expected...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

GLP-1s - Update 1

The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace and strong competition, patent challenges, and pressure to solve the obesity epidemic will favour the...

daaimon

Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals - Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?

Elpiscience's strong capital operation capabilities are no longer enough as investors shift focus to cash flow and drug sales revenue. We have...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) - The Story Behind Privatization

Henlius has met the pre-condition for a potential Share Alternative Offer. Since HK$24.60 Offer Price (50% lower than HK$49.6/share IPO price) is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) 24H1 - Fruquintinib's US Sales Beat; Break-Even Is Within Reach

​HUTCHMED's fruquintinib US sales and savolitinib combination with osimertinib for NSCLC will drive future growth. Breakeven in 2025 is expected...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

GLP-1s - Update 1

The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace and strong competition, patent challenges, and pressure to solve the obesity epidemic will favour the...

daaimon

Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals - Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?

​Elpiscience's strong capital operation capabilities are no longer enough as investors shift focus to cash flow and drug sales revenue. We have...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) - The Story Behind Privatization

Henlius has met the pre-condition for a potential Share Alternative Offer. Since HK$24.60 Offer Price (50% lower than HK$49.6/share IPO price) is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) 24H1 - Fruquintinib's US Sales Beat; Break-Even Is Within Reach

HUTCHMED's fruquintinib US sales and savolitinib combination with osimertinib for NSCLC will drive future growth. Breakeven in 2025 is expected...

Elpiscience's strong capital operation capabilities are no longer enough as investors shift focus to cash flow and drug sales revenue. We have...