External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Full-year guidance cut amid 1H25 miss. HCM’s oncology/immunology product revenue reached US$144mn in 1H25 (-15% YoY), only 36% of our prior full-year estimate.</li><li>The miss was driven by declines in HCM’s China revenue of key products: fruquintinib (-27%), savolitinib (-32%), and surufatinib (-50%), impacted by regorafenib and TAS-102 generic competition, regorafenib VBP, the launch of new NRDL-listed MET TKIs, and internal sales team transitions.</li><li>Although fruquintinib's overseas in-market sales grew 25% YoY to US$163mn, HCM recognized US$43mn revenue from fruquintinib, nearly flat YoY. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Full-year guidance cut amid 1H25 miss. HCM’s oncology/immunology product revenue reached US$144mn in 1H25 (-15% YoY), only 36% of our prior full-year estimate.The miss was driven by declines in HCM’s China revenue of key products: fruquintinib (-27%), savolitinib (-32%), and surufatinib (-50%), impacted by regorafenib and TAS-102 generic competition, regorafenib VBP, the launch of new NRDL-listed MET TKIs, and internal sales team transitions.Although fruquintinib's overseas in-market sales grew 25% YoY to US$163mn, HCM recognized US$43mn revenue from fruquintinib, nearly flat YoY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hutchmed (13 HK) - China Product Sales Under Pressure Amid Competition

<ul><li>Strong fruquintinib overseas sales drove top-line beat. HCM delivered a strong FY24 financial performance, marked by a top-line beat fueled by robust fruquintinib sales internationally.</li><li>Oncology/immunology product revenue grew by 65% YoY to US$272mn, exceeding the previous guidance of 30-50% growth.</li><li>FRUZAQLA (fruquintinib) generated total overseas sales of US$291mn in its first full year on the market, with US$111mn recognized as HCM’s revenue. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong fruquintinib overseas sales drove top-line beat. HCM delivered a strong FY24 financial performance, marked by a top-line beat fueled by robust fruquintinib sales internationally.Oncology/immunology product revenue grew by 65% YoY to US$272mn, exceeding the previous guidance of 30-50% growth.FRUZAQLA (fruquintinib) generated total overseas sales of US$291mn in its first full year on the market, with US$111mn recognized as HCM’s revenue. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hutchmed (13 HK) - Expecting Sustainable Profitability

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Hutchmed China Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED announced the disposal of 45% equity interest in SHPL for US$608 million, including selling 35% equity interest to GP Health Service Capital and 10% equity interest to Shanghai Pharma.</li>
<li>There’re synergies between SHPL and Shanghai Pharma regarding TCM business. It's necessary for HUTCHMED to sell non-core JV to reserve cash flow in advance to focus on innovative drug business.</li>
<li>The entire valuation of SHPL reaches RMB10 billion, or about 15x P/E. If HUTCHMED’s innovative drug business can bear fruit, its valuation has more room to grow in the future.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED announced the disposal of 45% equity interest in SHPL for US$608 million, including selling 35% equity interest to GP Health Service Capital and 10% equity interest to Shanghai Pharma.
There’re synergies between SHPL and Shanghai Pharma regarding TCM business. It's necessary for HUTCHMED to sell non-core JV to reserve cash flow in advance to focus on innovative drug business.
The entire valuation of SHPL reaches RMB10 billion, or about 15x P/E. If HUTCHMED’s innovative drug business can bear fruit, its valuation has more room to grow in the future.


HUTCHMED to Divest 45% Stake in Non-Core Joint Venture with Shanghai Pharma

Hutchison China MediTech Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED’s 23H1 results were in line with expectation. We updated our forecast for the three core products. Its 2023 total revenue would achieve a high double-digit growth. HUTCHMED is undervalued. </li>
<li>Performance prospects for 2024 and beyond largely depend on whether fruquintinib can smoothly obtain FDA approval in 2023, which means significant progress in internationalization and possibility of breakeven in 2025.</li>
<li>Based on the performance so far, we think the clarity of HUTCHMED’s performance is high and the guidance given by management is reliable. The Company deserves more attention from investors.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED’s 23H1 results were in line with expectation. We updated our forecast for the three core products. Its 2023 total revenue would achieve a high double-digit growth. HUTCHMED is undervalued. 
Performance prospects for 2024 and beyond largely depend on whether fruquintinib can smoothly obtain FDA approval in 2023, which means significant progress in internationalization and possibility of breakeven in 2025.
Based on the performance so far, we think the clarity of HUTCHMED’s performance is high and the guidance given by management is reliable. The Company deserves more attention from investors.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​HCM.US) 23H1 - This Company Is Becoming More Attractive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US)</a> at the close of trading on 19 December.</li>
<li>Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> add at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The HA premiums for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a> dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.


FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

Hong Kong

HUTCHMED (China) Limited develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company offers drugs for oncology and autoimmune diseases treatment. HUTCHMED (China) markets its products worldwide.

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Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)

Hutchmed (13 HK) - China Product Sales Under Pressure Amid Competition

Full-year guidance cut amid 1H25 miss. HCM’s oncology/immunology product revenue reached US$144mn in 1H25 (-15% YoY), only 36% of our prior full...

CMB International

Hutchmed (13 HK) - Expecting Sustainable Profitability

Strong fruquintinib overseas sales drove top-line beat. HCM delivered a strong FY24 financial performance, marked by a top-line beat fueled by...

CMB International

HUTCHMED to Divest 45% Stake in Non-Core Joint Venture with Shanghai Pharma

HUTCHMED sells 45% stake in SHPL for US$608 million to focus on innovative drug business, which is a right strategic move. If innovative drug...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang