Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI sees 4 names out, 4 names in. The ADDs are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The DELETEs are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>One way volume is just under 4.7% with all the name changes, FAF changes, and capping flows.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI sees 4 names out, 4 names in. The ADDs are PetroChina (857 HK), Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK). 
The DELETEs are Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), China Gas Holdings (384 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), and Bilibili (9626 HK). 
One way volume is just under 4.7% with all the name changes, FAF changes, and capping flows.


HSCEI Dec 2022 Rebalance - 4 IN, 4 OUT, 3% One-Way Flow

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 adds and 4 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance. The only surprises are some non-adds and non-deletes.</li>
<li>Using prices from the close on 18 November, estimated one-way turnover is 4.64% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,612m at the close on 2 December.</li>
<li>Short interest is larger on the deletes than the adds. However, at 17 days of ADV to cover and 11.7% of float, short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group</a> is huge.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 adds and 4 deletes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance. The only surprises are some non-adds and non-deletes.
Using prices from the close on 18 November, estimated one-way turnover is 4.64% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,612m at the close on 2 December.
Short interest is larger on the deletes than the adds. However, at 17 days of ADV to cover and 11.7% of float, short interest on Zhongsheng Group is huge.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Four Sets of Changes; And Some Close Calls

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 20th National Congress highlighted the importance of autonomy and controllability of key supply chains. So, the most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution.</li>
<li>For the investment logic of import substitution, we’re more inclined to focus on medical devices sector rather than pharmaceutical sector due to more obvious policy catalysts and higher certainty.</li>
<li>We analyzed our top picks (both medical device sector and others in 2023). After a challenging year, we think that China healthcare in 2023 would be very promising.</li>
</ul>


The 20th National Congress highlighted the importance of autonomy and controllability of key supply chains. So, the most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution.
For the investment logic of import substitution, we’re more inclined to focus on medical devices sector rather than pharmaceutical sector due to more obvious policy catalysts and higher certainty.
We analyzed our top picks (both medical device sector and others in 2023). After a challenging year, we think that China healthcare in 2023 would be very promising.


2023 High Conviction - China Healthcare: Recognize the Direction and Follow the Trend

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong Weigao.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong Weigao.


HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong Weigao.

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>’s share price had some rebounds last week, which could be related to some positive progress on business and the picking-up market sentiment in healthcare sector. </li>
<li>We increased overall sales forecast for Innovent by including the two new products from Sanofi. But it’s still far from the management's target of RMB20 billion sales in 5 years.</li>
<li>Innovent’s current commercialization capability is like a "semi-finished product", and has long way to go. It lacks the second big product except PD-1 to “pave the way” for next-stage development.</li>
</ul>



Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)’s share price had some rebounds last week, which could be related to some positive progress on business and the picking-up market sentiment in healthcare sector. 
We increased overall sales forecast for Innovent by including the two new products from Sanofi. But it’s still far from the management's target of RMB20 billion sales in 5 years.
Innovent’s current commercialization capability is like a "semi-finished product", and has long way to go. It lacks the second big product except PD-1 to “pave the way” for next-stage development.


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - The Concerns and the Outlook

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

HSCEI Dec 2022 Rebalance - 4 IN, 4 OUT, 3% One-Way Flow

The HSCEI Index has seen significant pain year-to date and there is less to trade than before, but one-way turnover is ~4.7% and a bare minimum of...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Four Sets of Changes; And Some Close Calls

There are 4 sets of changes for the HSCEI. Some stocks are notable non-adds/non-deletes. one-way turnover is 4.6%. Haier Smart Home is a double...

Brian Freitas

2023 High Conviction - China Healthcare: Recognize the Direction and Follow the Trend

The most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution,based on which companies in medical device sector are expected to have good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong Weigao.

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of {} and highlight short interest changes in BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - The Concerns and the Outlook

Even with Sanofi's products,Innovent's sales forecast is still far from management's goal.Its commercialization capability has a long way to go.A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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