Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.</li>
<li>Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.</li>
<li>What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.</li>
</ul>


What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.
Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.
What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.


VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shandong Gold Mining   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a> aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.</li>
<li>The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Shandong Gold Mining Placement - H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 54.6% as of Aug 15th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -4.2ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 54.6% as of Aug 15th.
The average A-H premium changed by -4.2ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 15th): MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH premia down, bouncing back. "Beautiful Skew" continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile - often the sign of significant distribution changes.</li>
<li>The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH premia down, bouncing back. "Beautiful Skew" continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile - often the sign of significant distribution changes.
The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025):  Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

China

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. operates gold mining and production businesses. The Company provides gold exploration, processing, and outsourcing gold smelting services. Shandong Gold Mining also conducts gold jewelry purification and non-ferrous metal production businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 15th): MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

Hs generally outperformed their As last week in volatile fashion. Super-liquid Hs trading at a premium to As lost. Second good week in a row for...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

​VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Shandong Gold Mining Placement - H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares

Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 15th): MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

Hs generally outperformed their As last week in volatile fashion. Super-liquid Hs trading at a premium to As lost. Second good week in a row for...

Travis Lundy

VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.