Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We estimate Vision Fund portfolio companies lost $2.1bn in value in Q3 as upside from new listings was not enough to offset valuation losses from the current portfolio.</li>
<li>A strong debut for SenseTime boosted Q3 gains by $2.3bn and +$1.7bn this week. That takes the sting out of weak Didi Q3 results but China remains a challenge. </li>
<li>Shares trade at a 49% discount to NAV because investment losses both lower NAV and boost balance sheet concerns. </li>
</ul>


We estimate Vision Fund portfolio companies lost $2.1bn in value in Q3 as upside from new listings was not enough to offset valuation losses from the current portfolio.
A strong debut for SenseTime boosted Q3 gains by $2.3bn and +$1.7bn this week. That takes the sting out of weak Didi Q3 results but China remains a challenge. 
Shares trade at a 49% discount to NAV because investment losses both lower NAV and boost balance sheet concerns. 


Softbank Group - SenseTime Rally Offsets Some of China Weakness but Q3 Vision Fund in the Red

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Didi reported its first post-IPO results on 29th December. China Mobility segment’s revenue declined both YoY as well as QoQ following removal of its app in July.</li>
<li>On 4th July, Didi was ordered to remove its app from app stores for violating users’ personal data and the app is not yet available for new users.</li>
<li>The board of directors has authorised the delisting of Didi’s shares from the US and to pursue a listing on the main board of HKEx.</li>
</ul>


Didi reported its first post-IPO results on 29th December. China Mobility segment’s revenue declined both YoY as well as QoQ following removal of its app in July.
On 4th July, Didi was ordered to remove its app from app stores for violating users’ personal data and the app is not yet available for new users.
The board of directors has authorised the delisting of Didi’s shares from the US and to pursue a listing on the main board of HKEx.


Didi: China Mobility Top Line Falls and Losses Widen as App Ban Hits Hard

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s share price is very close to its four year low due to the Tech fallout and regulatory concerns about the Chinese government; nonetheless, much bad news is now discounted</li>
<li>The share price weakness also reflects investor concerns about BABA’s potential NYSE delisting, following Didi’s NYSE delisting announcement last month under pressure from the Chinese authorities</li>
<li>Alibaba is very close to a long term PEG ratio of 1x based on consensus estimates, and trades on very modest earnings and EBITDA multiples given its continued growth potential</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s share price is very close to its four year low due to the Tech fallout and regulatory concerns about the Chinese government; nonetheless, much bad news is now discounted
The share price weakness also reflects investor concerns about BABA’s potential NYSE delisting, following Didi’s NYSE delisting announcement last month under pressure from the Chinese authorities
Alibaba is very close to a long term PEG ratio of 1x based on consensus estimates, and trades on very modest earnings and EBITDA multiples given its continued growth potential


Alibaba (BABA US): Looking to a Better ‘22

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the 2021 futures expiring in 2 weeks, the focus now shifts to the HSCEI dividend futures expiring in 2022 where we see a fair value of 240.76 DIPS.</li>
<li>The current market is trading very close to our fair value for 2022 but there are a lot of potential catalysts that could result in a big move lower.</li>
<li>There are fewer catalysts for the 2022 futures to move higher. The regulatory changes in China plus the HFCAA could lead to the 2023 futures trading cheaper to 2022.</li>
</ul>


With the 2021 futures expiring in 2 weeks, the focus now shifts to the HSCEI dividend futures expiring in 2022 where we see a fair value of 240.76 DIPS.
The current market is trading very close to our fair value for 2022 but there are a lot of potential catalysts that could result in a big move lower.
There are fewer catalysts for the 2022 futures to move higher. The regulatory changes in China plus the HFCAA could lead to the 2023 futures trading cheaper to 2022.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Close to Fair; Sell 22/23 Steepener

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Paytm raised around US$2.2bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its IPO.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes links to which are below.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming anchor book lock-up expiry and look at how past IPOs have done around this time period.</li>
</ul>


Paytm raised around US$2.2bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its IPO.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes links to which are below.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming anchor book lock-up expiry and look at how past IPOs have done around this time period.


Paytm (One 97) - Large Anchor Book Expiry, Prior Listings Have Corrected a Few Days Ahead

China

DiDi Chuxing Inc operates passenger transportation platforms. The Company provides mobility solutions, cloud computing, and other application based services. DiDi Chuxing serves customers worldwide.

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DiDi Global (DIDIY US)

Softbank Group - SenseTime Rally Offsets Some of China Weakness but Q3 Vision Fund in the Red

A strong public debut for SenseTime boosted Vision Fund performance after Didi released dismal results but the portfolio is likely in the red for...

Kirk Boodry

Didi: China Mobility Top Line Falls and Losses Widen as App Ban Hits Hard

Didi reported its first post-IPO results. China Mobility segment's revenues declined both QoQ and YoY in 3Q2021 due to removal of its app from app...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Alibaba (BABA US): Looking to a Better ‘22

Alibaba's big discounts on valuations to its Tech peers, and reduced short interest, indicate that regulatory concerns and the risk of NYSE...

Victor Galliano

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Close to Fair; Sell 22/23 Steepener

The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading close to fair but there are a lot more negative catalysts that will have a bigger impact than positive...

Brian Freitas

Paytm (One 97) - Large Anchor Book Expiry, Prior Listings Have Corrected a Few Days Ahead

Paytm raised around US$2.2bn in its IPO. In this note, we look at the upcoming anchor book lock-up expiry and how other IPOs have done around that...

Sumeet Singh

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