HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)'</a>s business has made some positive progress recently, including the launch of COVID-19 Vaccine for Inhalation, commercialization and development progress of MCV4/PCV13i, etc. </li>
<li>CanSino's technology platforms are very valuable and are above average level. Currently, there’re little potential domestic competitors, because CanSino’s products are newer, better and safer than domestic homogenized products.</li>
<li>Even based on conservative forecast, CanSino’s valuation in HKEX is “ridiculously low”. Considering the downside risk in HKEX, CanSino A-share could be better option before valuation in HKEX becomes reasonable.</li>
</ul>



CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)'s business has made some positive progress recently, including the launch of COVID-19 Vaccine for Inhalation, commercialization and development progress of MCV4/PCV13i, etc. 
CanSino's technology platforms are very valuable and are above average level. Currently, there’re little potential domestic competitors, because CanSino’s products are newer, better and safer than domestic homogenized products.
Even based on conservative forecast, CanSino’s valuation in HKEX is “ridiculously low”. Considering the downside risk in HKEX, CanSino A-share could be better option before valuation in HKEX becomes reasonable.


CanSino Biologics Inc (688185.CH/6185.HK) - Some Positive Progress in Business

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 130.2% as of Oct 14th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 5.3ppt weeok on week, led by information technology, real estate, materials and offset by communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC, GWM, CGS.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 130.2% as of Oct 14th.
The average A-H premium changed by 5.3ppt weeok on week, led by information technology, real estate, materials and offset by communication services, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC, GWM, CGS.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 14th): CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC, GWM, CGS

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>AIM needs to rely on both human rabies vaccine and HBV vaccine to contribute majority revenue,but the outlook is challenging. Their revenue would decline due to competition and product upgrading.</li>
<li>Most of AIM’s vaccine candidates are in early development stages. There’re many competing candidates in more advanced development stages.The pipeline lacks competitiveness and it's hard to generate forecasted profits.</li>
<li>Although the issue price is discounted significantly, AIM is still overvalued. Reducing the size of IPO to maintain a good share price doesn’t work. When investors exit,accumulated pressure will explode.</li>
</ul>


AIM needs to rely on both human rabies vaccine and HBV vaccine to contribute majority revenue,but the outlook is challenging. Their revenue would decline due to competition and product upgrading.
Most of AIM’s vaccine candidates are in early development stages. There’re many competing candidates in more advanced development stages.The pipeline lacks competitiveness and it's hard to generate forecasted profits.
Although the issue price is discounted significantly, AIM is still overvalued. Reducing the size of IPO to maintain a good share price doesn’t work. When investors exit,accumulated pressure will explode.


Pre-IPO AIM Vaccine - AIM Is Overvalued, with Uncompetitive Pipeline and Challenging Outlook

<ul>
<li>CanSino’s performance declined in 22H1 due to decreased demand of COVID-19 vaccine. Since we have analyzed our concerns on performance in prior insight, there should be psychological expectations for the decline.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 vaccine business brings CanSino rich cash flow and helps it establish commercial team. Together with MCV2/MCV4/mRNA/PCV13i, it's too early to be completely bearish on CanSino.</li>
<li>The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, it is a good time to bottom fish this stock.</li>
</ul>


CanSino’s performance declined in 22H1 due to decreased demand of COVID-19 vaccine. Since we have analyzed our concerns on performance in prior insight, there should be psychological expectations for the decline.
The COVID-19 vaccine business brings CanSino rich cash flow and helps it establish commercial team. Together with MCV2/MCV4/mRNA/PCV13i, it's too early to be completely bearish on CanSino.
The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, it is a good time to bottom fish this stock.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) 2022H1 - It's Too Early to Be Completely Bearish on CanSino

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 142 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>A-H premium declined by 0.6ppt wow, led by health care, communication services and real estate sector, and offset by the increase in consumer staple and consumer discretionary. </li>
<li>We highlight A-H premium changes for Zoomlion, Cansino, China Telecom, Tianqi Lithium, YOFC, Flat Glass, CSSC Offshore and Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 142 stocks over the last week.
A-H premium declined by 0.6ppt wow, led by health care, communication services and real estate sector, and offset by the increase in consumer staple and consumer discretionary. 
We highlight A-H premium changes for Zoomlion, Cansino, China Telecom, Tianqi Lithium, YOFC, Flat Glass, CSSC Offshore and Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 19th): Zoomlion, Cansino, China Telecom, Tianqi Lithium

China

CanSino Biologics Inc. develops and manufactures biological vaccine products. The Company discovers quadrivalence meningococcal conjugate, pneumococcal polysaccharide, and adenovirus vector-based tuberculosis vaccines for human use. CanSino Biologics serves customers worldwide.

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CanSino Biologics (6185 HK)

CanSino Biologics Inc (688185.CH/6185.HK) - Some Positive Progress in Business

Cansino has made positive progress in commercialization and R&D recently. We look forward to the performance of MCV4 in H2. Its valuation in HKEX...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 14th): CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC, GWM, CGS

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO AIM Vaccine - AIM Is Overvalued, with Uncompetitive Pipeline and Challenging Outlook

AIM's products/pipeline are lack of competitiveness due to fierce competition and product upgrading, with gloomy outlook. Although the issue price...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang