Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (688185 CH)</a> generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.</li>
<li>This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.</li>
<li>CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.</li>
</ul>


In 2023, CanSino Biologics (688185 CH) generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.
This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.
CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.


CanSino Biologics (688185 CH): Limited Downside Is Seen; Meningococcal Vaccines to Drive Growth

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<p>Given the global COVID-19 situation is still not yet optimistic, the vaccine is widely recognized the best solution to end the pandemic. Recently, the inhaled COVID-19 vaccine of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a> (or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a>) is applying for emergency use in China, which is currently in phase II clinical trial. At present, the R&amp;D of nasal spray/inhaled COVID-19 vaccines of different companies are actively in process, and CanSino is expected to take the lead in this field and realize the corner overtaking, which worth the attention of investors.</p>

Given the global COVID-19 situation is still not yet optimistic, the vaccine is widely recognized the best solution to end the pandemic. Recently, the inhaled COVID-19 vaccine of CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH) (or CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)) is applying for emergency use in China, which is currently in phase II clinical trial. At present, the R&amp;D of nasal spray/inhaled COVID-19 vaccines of different companies are actively in process, and CanSino is expected to take the lead in this field and realize the corner overtaking, which worth the attention of investors.

CanSino Biologics (688185.CH/6185.HK) - Time for Corner Overtaking?

<ul>
<li>We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 - Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses would show a declining trend.</li>
<li>Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.</li>
<li>CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.</li>
</ul>


We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 - Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses would show a declining trend.
Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.
CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - 2024 Is the Best Time to Bottom-Fish This Stock

<ul>
<li>WuXi XDC remains our top pick in China healthcare. We're optimistic about its share price performance. Cansino is stronger than imagined, and we recommend investors to be patient with it.</li>
<li>The future competitive landscape of GLP-1s would present very different situation from traditional drugs. Innovent’s Mazdutide could be a "dark horse" if the head-to-head trial against Semaglutide is successful.</li>
<li>For GLP-1s, it will be difficult to shake the first-mover position of the first two giants (Semaglutide and Tirzepatide) unless latecomers are able to show higher marginal benefits.</li>
</ul>


WuXi XDC remains our top pick in China healthcare. We're optimistic about its share price performance. Cansino is stronger than imagined, and we recommend investors to be patient with it.
The future competitive landscape of GLP-1s would present very different situation from traditional drugs. Innovent’s Mazdutide could be a "dark horse" if the head-to-head trial against Semaglutide is successful.
For GLP-1s, it will be difficult to shake the first-mover position of the first two giants (Semaglutide and Tirzepatide) unless latecomers are able to show higher marginal benefits.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.5) - WuXi XDC, GLP-1s New Game Rule, Innovent, Cansino, A-Share Outlook

<ul>
<li>Based on the current situation, sales of MCV4 in 2023 could still be unsatisfactory. We think MCV4 is hard to become the second growth curve of CanSino in post-COVID era.</li>
<li>Whether CanSino’s zoster vaccine is able to become Best-In-Class would largely determine whether this product would truly become the next blockbuster vaccine to turn the situation around for CanSino. </li>
<li>CanSino's commercialized products cannot contribute large-scale revenue in time to prevent continuous deterioration of performance. Results in 2023 could be lower than expected, and investors are losing confidence in CanSino.</li>
</ul>


Based on the current situation, sales of MCV4 in 2023 could still be unsatisfactory. We think MCV4 is hard to become the second growth curve of CanSino in post-COVID era.
Whether CanSino’s zoster vaccine is able to become Best-In-Class would largely determine whether this product would truly become the next blockbuster vaccine to turn the situation around for CanSino. 
CanSino's commercialized products cannot contribute large-scale revenue in time to prevent continuous deterioration of performance. Results in 2023 could be lower than expected, and investors are losing confidence in CanSino.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/​688185.CH) - The Story Has Changed

China

CanSino Biologics Inc. develops and manufactures biological vaccine products. The Company discovers quadrivalence meningococcal conjugate, pneumococcal polysaccharide, and adenovirus vector-based tuberculosis vaccines for human use. CanSino Biologics serves customers worldwide.

CanSino Biologics (688185 CH)