Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD406,502m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, ZHEJIANG XINAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIAL, GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, OMNIVISOIN INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BOE.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD406,502m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, ZHEJIANG XINAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIAL, GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, OMNIVISOIN INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BOE.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 3rd): TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, BOE

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 189 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Jul 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, health care, energy and offset by utilities, consumer discretionary, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, Psbc, Cicc, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Midea, Ceb Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 189 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Jul 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, health care, energy and offset by utilities, consumer discretionary, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, Psbc, Cicc, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Midea, Ceb Bank.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 3rd): China Longyuan, Psbc, Cicc, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Midea

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 185 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.6% as of Jun 26th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 5.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, information technology, utilities and offset by communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Midea, Cmoc, Htsc, China Longyuan, Times Electric, Innocare.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 185 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.6% as of Jun 26th.
The average A-H premium changed by 5.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, information technology, utilities and offset by communication services, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Midea, Cmoc, Htsc, China Longyuan, Times Electric, Innocare.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 26th): Midea, Cmoc, Htsc, China Longyuan, Times Electric, Innocare

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 184 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 76.8% as of May 29th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 4.3ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, utilities, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking, Datang Power, Haier Smart Home, Huaneng Power Intl.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 184 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 76.8% as of May 29th.
The average A-H premium changed by 4.3ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, utilities, consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking, Datang Power, Haier Smart Home, Huaneng Power Intl.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 29th): Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking

China

CSC Financial Co., Ltd. provides investment management services. The Company offers investment banking, wealth management, and trading and institutional client services. CSC Financial conducts its business in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CSC Financial (601066 CH)

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 3rd): China Longyuan, Psbc, Cicc, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Midea

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan, Psbc, Cicc, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 26th): Midea, Cmoc, Htsc, China Longyuan, Times Electric, Innocare

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Midea, Cmoc, Htsc, China Longyuan, Times Electric, Innocare.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (May 29th): Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 3rd): TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, BOE

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY (000766 CH),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 3rd): China Longyuan, Psbc, Cicc, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Midea

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan, Psbc, Cicc, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 26th): Midea, Cmoc, Htsc, China Longyuan, Times Electric, Innocare

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Midea, Cmoc, Htsc, China Longyuan, Times Electric, Innocare.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (May 29th): Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM