IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased since 18 October. The widening spread is due to the unfortunate fallout from the China TCM deal break. </li>
<li>We assess the widening spreads of HK's merger arb situations on several factors. Deal risk of the HK merger arb situations is evaluated by allocating 15 points across each factor.</li>
<li>In descending order, the companies with the lowest deal risk are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, and Canvest.</li>
</ul>


The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased since 18 October. The widening spread is due to the unfortunate fallout from the China TCM deal break. 
We assess the widening spreads of HK's merger arb situations on several factors. Deal risk of the HK merger arb situations is evaluated by allocating 15 points across each factor.
In descending order, the companies with the lowest deal risk are Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), and Canvest.


HK Merger Arb: Evaluating the Post China TCM Widening Spreads

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-grand-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18241:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/platinum-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:914:1" rel="noopener">Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-gaia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8339:1" rel="noopener">T Gaia Corp (3738 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elematec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2866:1" rel="noopener">Elematec Corp (2715 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK). 

Lowest spreads: Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU), Silverlake Axis (SILV SP), Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), T Gaia Corp (3738 JP), Elematec Corp (2715 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (04 Nov) - Haitong, Canvest, Capital Grand, Capitol, Fuji Soft, NESIC, Elematec

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 10th national VBP has started. Kelun Pharma, Fosun Pharma and CSPC are expected to be the big pharmaceutical companies that get hit most in this VBP.</li>
<li>For biopharmaceutical companies, rather than R&amp;D technology, revenue scale is the most important moat. Accordingly, we recommend to invest medium and large biotech that are currently scaling up.</li>
<li>Xingqi’s share price decline is related to the potential lower-than-expected performance in 24Q3. Sales expansion of 0.01% atropine eye drops takes time considering the difficulty of new drug hospital admission.</li>
</ul>


The 10th national VBP has started. Kelun Pharma, Fosun Pharma and CSPC are expected to be the big pharmaceutical companies that get hit most in this VBP.
For biopharmaceutical companies, rather than R&amp;D technology, revenue scale is the most important moat. Accordingly, we recommend to invest medium and large biotech that are currently scaling up.
Xingqi’s share price decline is related to the potential lower-than-expected performance in 24Q3. Sales expansion of 0.01% atropine eye drops takes time considering the difficulty of new drug hospital admission.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trancom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13043:1" rel="noopener">Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-gaia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8339:1" rel="noopener">T Gaia Corp (3738 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raysum-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6084:1" rel="noopener">Raysum Co Ltd (8890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP). 

Lowest spreads: Silverlake Axis (SILV SP), Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP), T Gaia Corp (3738 JP), Auswide Bank (ABA AU), Raysum Co Ltd (8890 JP), Descente Ltd (8114 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (28 Oct) - Henlius, Canvest, CPMC, Seven & I, Shinko, Capitol, Auswide

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

HK Merger Arb: Evaluating the Post China TCM Widening Spreads

The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased since 18 October, the China TCM deal break date. We assess the spreads of HK's...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (04 Nov) - Haitong, Canvest, Capital Grand, Capitol, Fuji Soft, NESIC, Elematec

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (28.8%), Capital Grand (18.1%), Henlius (13.1%), Canvest (12.4%), GA Pack (10.0%), Shinko...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Oct) - Henlius, Canvest, CPMC, Seven & I, Shinko, Capitol, Auswide

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (22.3%), Henlius (13.9%), Canvest (11.1%), GA Pack (10.9%), Shinko Electric (9.9%), Haitong...

Arun George

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HK Merger Arb: Evaluating the Post China TCM Widening Spreads

The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased since 18 October, the China TCM deal break date. We assess the spreads of HK's...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (04 Nov) - Haitong, Canvest, Capital Grand, Capitol, Fuji Soft, NESIC, Elematec

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (28.8%), Capital Grand (18.1%), Henlius (13.1%), Canvest (12.4%), GA Pack (10.0%), Shinko...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

​10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Oct) - Henlius, Canvest, CPMC, Seven & I, Shinko, Capitol, Auswide

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (22.3%), Henlius (13.9%), Canvest (11.1%), GA Pack (10.9%), Shinko Electric (9.9%), Haitong...

Arun George

10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...