Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength</li>
<li>CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital</li>
<li>Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating</li>
</ul>


There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength
CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital
Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating


US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>'Buy' calls for Genting Singapore; DBS keeps 'hold' rating.</li><li>Lim &amp; Tan starts 'buy' on Zixin Group, targeting a price of 6.6 cents.</li><li>Maybank raises Sanli Environmental's target price after $205M PUB project win.</li></ul>

'Buy' calls for Genting Singapore; DBS keeps 'hold' rating.Lim &amp; Tan starts 'buy' on Zixin Group, targeting a price of 6.6 cents.Maybank raises Sanli Environmental's target price after $205M PUB project win.

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Nov-2025): Genting Singapore: Buy rating; DBS maintains Hold.

<ul><li>CGSI raises DBS target price above $60, joining Citi and Maybank.</li><li>RHB raises OCBC's target price by 7% but remains ‘neutral’ post 3QFY2025 results.</li><li>RHB maintains DBS as 'buy' and UOB as 'neutral' after 3QFY2025 results.</li></ul>

CGSI raises DBS target price above $60, joining Citi and Maybank.RHB raises OCBC's target price by 7% but remains ‘neutral’ post 3QFY2025 results.RHB maintains DBS as 'buy' and UOB as 'neutral' after 3QFY2025 results.

Singapore Market Roundup (10-Nov-2025): CGSI boosts DBS target price above $60, following Citi,

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active Global funds averaged +15.5% YTD, trailing the SPDR ACWI ETF’s +18.8%, with 73% underperforming the benchmark.</li>
<li>Value strategies led performance; Aggressive Growth funds lagged sharply, averaging just +10.15%.</li>
<li>Underweights in US Tech names like NVIDIA and Palantir, plus 2.4% cash holdings, drove relative losses.</li>
</ul>


Active Global funds averaged +15.5% YTD, trailing the SPDR ACWI ETF’s +18.8%, with 73% underperforming the benchmark.
Value strategies led performance; Aggressive Growth funds lagged sharply, averaging just +10.15%.
Underweights in US Tech names like NVIDIA and Palantir, plus 2.4% cash holdings, drove relative losses.


Global Active Funds Struggle to Close the Gap in 2025

<ul>
<li>Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns</li>
<li>The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign</li>
<li>Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns
The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign
Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters


US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

High frequency data from Fed on commercial paper and balance sheets is positive. Loans are accelerating to 5% YoY and CP is at 19% YoY, with LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Nov-2025): Genting Singapore: Buy rating; DBS maintains Hold.

Genting Singapore gets 'buy' calls; DBS holds 'hold' rating. Lim & Tan starts 'buy' on Zixin Group at 6.6 cents. Maybank raises Sanli...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (10-Nov-2025): CGSI boosts DBS target price above $60, following Citi,

CGSI raises DBS target price above $60, joining Citi and Maybank. RHB lifts OCBC's target by 7% but stays ‘neutral’; maintains DBS as 'buy' and UOB...

Singapore Market Roundup

Global Active Funds Struggle to Close the Gap in 2025

Global active funds face another uphill year—Value shines, but benchmark dominance, missed US Tech winners, and high cash weights keep most...

Steven Holden

US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

Fed quarterly data on NCO and delinquencies, does not suggest any systemic malaise in credit markets. Will be interesting to see how data changes...

Daniel Tabbush

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