Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK)</a> will see its share of worsening exposures in oil &amp; gas, commodities, energy and shipping. With de-risking all the rage, we would also expect less strong trading income, which historically had been a reasonable revenue driver. HSBC’s profit declined sharply in the past three quarters, to a slight loss in 3Q16. Where its credit costs remained low in that period, we would not be surprised to see a rebound here; maybe not on par with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/114" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited</a>…

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) will see its share of worsening exposures in oil &amp; gas, commodities, energy and shipping. With de-risking all the rage, we would also expect less strong trading income, which historically had been a reasonable revenue driver. HSBC’s profit declined sharply in the past three quarters, to a slight loss in 3Q16. Where its credit costs remained low in that period, we would not be surprised to see a rebound here; maybe not on par with Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited…

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Despite the record highs for US indices, most EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades resume.
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<li>Even the Turkish Lira and Mexican Peso have found support since late January while speculative long USD positioning has reversed to levels last seen in October.</li>
<li>Corporate credit spreads have tightened further as retail funds flood into the sector YTD - EM high yield spreads are just 2.7% currently from over 5% a year ago.</li>
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That backdrop underpins the…</li>
</ul>



Despite the record highs for US indices, most EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades resume.

Even the Turkish Lira and Mexican Peso have found support since late January while speculative long USD positioning has reversed to levels last seen in October.
Corporate credit spreads have tightened further as retail funds flood into the sector YTD - EM high yield spreads are just 2.7% currently from over 5% a year ago.

That backdrop underpins the…


US Earnings Momentum Weak as Greek Saga Resumes

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

BAY, New King of Plastic. According to a new Poll by my engineering school alma mater Assumption University (2nd biggest campus pollster in Thailand after Dusit), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/136" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1">Bank Of Ayudhya Pcl (BAY TB)</a> has beaten KBANK for boasting rights of being Thailand's biggest credit card issuer. Note that the numbers will add up to more than 100%, since almost 70% of respondents have more than one credit card. Anyway, this is pretty surprising result, since KBANK creamed both previous market leaders, Citi and KTC…

BAY, New King of Plastic. According to a new Poll by my engineering school alma mater Assumption University (2nd biggest campus pollster in Thailand after Dusit), Bank Of Ayudhya Pcl (BAY TB) has beaten KBANK for boasting rights of being Thailand's biggest credit card issuer. Note that the numbers will add up to more than 100%, since almost 70% of respondents have more than one credit card. Anyway, this is pretty surprising result, since KBANK creamed both previous market leaders, Citi and KTC…

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

Money Matters: US Inflation & The Fed

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As...

Stewart Paterson

HSBC Results May Be Gruesome

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) will see its share of worsening exposures in oil & gas, commodities, energy and shipping. With de-risking all the...

Daniel Tabbush

US Earnings Momentum Weak as Greek Saga Resumes

Despite the record highs for US indices, most EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: I Mera Tis Marmotas

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of...

Stewart Paterson

Thailand's New Credit Card Honcho

BAY, New King of Plastic. According to a new Poll by my engineering school alma mater Assumption University (2nd biggest campus pollster in...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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