Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/screen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5563:1" rel="noopener">SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a>price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/screen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5563:1" rel="noopener">SCREEN (7735 JP)</a> targets a 7% return.</li>
<li>
WhyRead: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP) vs. Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

 Highlight: Going long Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and short SCREEN (7735 JP) targets a 7% return.

WhyRead: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) Vs SCREEN (7735 JP): 7% Return Target Pair Trade Ahead of Same-Day Earnings

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nvidia's B200, one of the chips behind today's AI boom, is designed in California but built by dozens of companies in at least five countries.</li><li>Some of those suppliers could be swapped out in months.</li><li>Others would take years, because a replacement needs new factories or years of testing before anyone trusts it.</li></ul>

Nvidia's B200, one of the chips behind today's AI boom, is designed in California but built by dozens of companies in at least five countries.Some of those suppliers could be swapped out in months.Others would take years, because a replacement needs new factories or years of testing before anyone trusts it.

Nobody makes an Nvidia B200 alone, and the weak links are measured in years

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Record Q1 sales ¥732bn (+33% YoY) at a 28.9% operating margin; EPS beat consensus but revenue missed 3.7%. Profitability, not the top line, drove the print.</li>
<li>Management raised H1 sales to ¥1,620bn and lifted the WFE market view to $150B+/$190B+ for CY26/27, with H2 guided stronger; full-year guidance still withheld to Q2.</li>
<li>We upgrade to BULISH (from NEUTRAL). PT ¥75,000 = 48x FY2027E EPS ¥1,560, ~35% upside — the premium multiple justified by AI-led WFE re-acceleration and TEL's leading-edge mix.</li>
</ul>


Record Q1 sales ¥732bn (+33% YoY) at a 28.9% operating margin; EPS beat consensus but revenue missed 3.7%. Profitability, not the top line, drove the print.
Management raised H1 sales to ¥1,620bn and lifted the WFE market view to $150B+/$190B+ for CY26/27, with H2 guided stronger; full-year guidance still withheld to Q2.
We upgrade to BULISH (from NEUTRAL). PT ¥75,000 = 48x FY2027E EPS ¥1,560, ~35% upside — the premium multiple justified by AI-led WFE re-acceleration and TEL's leading-edge mix.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): The Correction Did Our Work — Upgrade to BULLISH on the AI Re-Acceleration

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)