Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.</li>
<li>The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.</li>
<li>The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.
The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.
The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.


TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

Co-Founder & CEO, Newmark Risk

Nicholas Pezolano

Co-Founder & CEO

Option analytics for institutional investors

Newmark Risk

Fin-tech company focused on providing option derived analytics for institutional investors.

We handle the complexity of options data so you don't have to.

- Data and Analytics available all in one place so you can focus on Strategy Development
- Custom Solutions for your data and/or portfolio needs
- Advisory services to lend our expertise

Knowledge is something that was meant to be shared and we provide insights to our clients and to the community via posting about our research findings.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Box Spreads have become an increasingly popular strategy utilized in the US markets, so we explore this strategy in Japan.</li>
<li>Opportunities exist for traders to lock in JPY margin rates lower than their brokerage.</li>
<li>A historical analysis of the strategy showcases the favorable opportunities for investors</li>
</ul>


Box Spreads have become an increasingly popular strategy utilized in the US markets, so we explore this strategy in Japan.
Opportunities exist for traders to lock in JPY margin rates lower than their brokerage.
A historical analysis of the strategy showcases the favorable opportunities for investors


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.</li>
<li>How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.</li>
<li>Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.</li>
</ul>


We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.
How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.
Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.


China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan is widely owned but lightly held: 88% of global funds now hold Japan—well ahead of Asian peers—yet average weights remain near 15-year lows and structurally underweight vs. ACWI.</li>
<li>Allocations are shallow and skewed: 75% of global funds hold less than 6.3% in Japan; exposures above 10% are rare and concentrated in Value and Yield strategies.</li>
<li>Tech &amp; Industrials dominate; ownership is fragmented: Japan exposure is concentrated in Tech/Industrials, with few consensus stocks beyond Sony and Keyence, and a long tail of lightly held names.</li>
</ul>


Japan is widely owned but lightly held: 88% of global funds now hold Japan—well ahead of Asian peers—yet average weights remain near 15-year lows and structurally underweight vs. ACWI.
Allocations are shallow and skewed: 75% of global funds hold less than 6.3% in Japan; exposures above 10% are rare and concentrated in Value and Yield strategies.
Tech &amp; Industrials dominate; ownership is fragmented: Japan exposure is concentrated in Tech/Industrials, with few consensus stocks beyond Sony and Keyence, and a long tail of lightly held names.


Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Kioxia set for inclusion in the Nikkei Semiconductor Index next week, alongside JX Advanced Metals, less than one day's average daily volume in passive inflow at the close.</li>
<li>Kioxia's Q2 2025 results show an accelerating QoQ recovery and solid Q3 2025 forecasts, driven by high demand from data center and smart device products, confirming effective business structure reform.</li>
<li>Stock is fairly valued after 2025 rally, potential weaknesses being value metrics such as P/E alongside execution of margin and product pipeline targets.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia set for inclusion in the Nikkei Semiconductor Index next week, alongside JX Advanced Metals, less than one day's average daily volume in passive inflow at the close.
Kioxia's Q2 2025 results show an accelerating QoQ recovery and solid Q3 2025 forecasts, driven by high demand from data center and smart device products, confirming effective business structure reform.
Stock is fairly valued after 2025 rally, potential weaknesses being value metrics such as P/E alongside execution of margin and product pipeline targets.


The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

TSMC sees further inventory correction, I see earnings disappointments. ASML has a quandary if the entire ecosystem is trying to use EUV.

Fabricated Knowledge

EQD | Are Box Spreads Viable in Japan?

Box spreads may be an effective strategy for Japanese investors to lock in margin rates lower than their prime brokerage with minimal risk and...

Nicholas Pezolano

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan: Cautious Reengagment

Global ownership of Japan is rising, but conviction remains weak. Allocations sit near historic lows, with Value funds leading a cautious rotation...

Steven Holden

The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge

Kioxia to be added to Nikkei Semiconductor Index after positive Q2 results and optimistic Q3 forecasts, but potential concerns over valuation and...

Jay Cameron

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

TSMC sees further inventory correction, I see earnings disappointments. ASML has a quandary if the entire ecosystem is trying to use EUV.

Fabricated Knowledge

EQD | Are Box Spreads Viable in Japan?

Box spreads may be an effective strategy for Japanese investors to lock in margin rates lower than their prime brokerage with minimal risk and...

Nicholas Pezolano

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan: Cautious Reengagment

Global ownership of Japan is rising, but conviction remains weak. Allocations sit near historic lows, with Value funds leading a cautious rotation...

Steven Holden

The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge

​Kioxia to be added to Nikkei Semiconductor Index after positive Q2 results and optimistic Q3 forecasts, but potential concerns over valuation and...

Jay Cameron

Kioxia to be added to Nikkei Semiconductor Index after positive Q2 results and optimistic Q3 forecasts, but potential concerns over valuation and...