Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>US-based National Beverage has an atypical management culture that emphasizes long-term value creation;</li>
<li>The business outperforms its publicly-traded peers across many dimensions;</li>
<li>At the current level, the risk-reward ratio looks quite favorable for the company's long-term shareholders.</li>
</ul>


US-based National Beverage has an atypical management culture that emphasizes long-term value creation;
The business outperforms its publicly-traded peers across many dimensions;
At the current level, the risk-reward ratio looks quite favorable for the company's long-term shareholders.


This Atypically-Cultured Beverage Business Can Be Interesting!

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 August. The IFA considers the HK$3.75 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>Sector sentiment has modestly weakened. This looks done. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.6% and 34.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)'s scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 August. The IFA considers the HK$3.75 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. 
Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
Sector sentiment has modestly weakened. This looks done. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.6% and 34.8%, respectively.


Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a> disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from the founder at HK$3.75 per share, a 37.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$2.72 on 20 June).</li>
<li>Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from the founder at HK$3.75 per share, a 37.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$2.72 on 20 June).
Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal. 


Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Privatisation Offer at HK$3.75

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1" rel="noopener">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a> was shunned by investors last year as its products were taken off the shelves in China, causing its revenue from China to plummet. </li>
<li>Recently announced a substantial increase in net profit vs last year.  </li>
<li>Despite the recent uptick, Vitasoy's share price is still trading at 50% PBR vs 5 years ago. </li>
</ul>



Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK) was shunned by investors last year as its products were taken off the shelves in China, causing its revenue from China to plummet. 
Recently announced a substantial increase in net profit vs last year.  
Despite the recent uptick, Vitasoy's share price is still trading at 50% PBR vs 5 years ago. 


Hong Kong

Vitasoy International Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes food and beverages.

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Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)

This Atypically-Cultured Beverage Business Can Be Interesting!

An emphasis on long-term value creation, brand-based moat, massive runway, and fair share price could make National Beverage attractive to alpha...

Steven Chen

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August

Sector sentiment has modestly weakened, helping the YES vote. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the annualised spread is 34.8%....

Arun George

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Privatisation Offer at HK$3.75

The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal.

Arun George

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

Vitasoy (345): Time to Bounce

Vitasoy's business has recovered mainly to today's cessation of the boycott in China and also the reopening of the economy.

Henry Soediarko

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