Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a> has seen investors run for the hills over the last year. The halving of the stock price could mean deletion from passive portfolios.</li>
<li>Other Hong Kong listed brewers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> have been beaten down too and have underperformed their Asian peers.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios could provide a buying opportunity in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a> at the end of February (or earlier if the stock drops due to positioning).</li>
</ul>



Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) has seen investors run for the hills over the last year. The halving of the stock price could mean deletion from passive portfolios.
Other Hong Kong listed brewers, China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) have been beaten down too and have underperformed their Asian peers.
The deletion from passive portfolios could provide a buying opportunity in Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) at the end of February (or earlier if the stock drops due to positioning).


Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage</a> is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains a Minnow in Other Markets

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.</li>
<li>The largest shorts have been built on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (1398)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.
The largest shorts have been built on BYD (1211), XPeng (9868), ICBC (1398), Xiaomi (1810), Link REIT (823), JD.com (9618), Wharf Holdings (4) and New World Development (17). 


Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.
The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.
Huge inflows to CSI 300 Index trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Budweiser Brewing  APAC  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With shares trading near its all-time low since its listing on HKEX in 3Q19, we think it could be worthwhile taking another look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>’s valuation.</li>
<li>China's beer industry and regional markets are expected to sustain growth momentum in Q3, driven by tourism's impact on increased beer consumption.</li>
<li>We think it’s worth keeping an eye on Budweiser APAC, as we suspect that it could start to break out from the current downtrend in the near term.</li>
</ul>


With shares trading near its all-time low since its listing on HKEX in 3Q19, we think it could be worthwhile taking another look at Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)’s valuation.
China's beer industry and regional markets are expected to sustain growth momentum in Q3, driven by tourism's impact on increased beer consumption.
We think it’s worth keeping an eye on Budweiser APAC, as we suspect that it could start to break out from the current downtrend in the near term.


Budweiser APAC: Chinese Beer Makers Poised for a Breakout

China

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited is a company principally engaged in the brewing and distribution of beer. The Company produces, imports, markets, distributes over 50 brands including Budweiser, Stella Artois, Corona, Hoegaarden, Cass, and Harbin. The principal markets include China, South Korea, India and Vietnam.

Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)

Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang

Bud APAC is up since the Insight was published and is near the upper end of the downward sloping channel. With Hong Kong closed Monday and Tuesday...

Brian Freitas

China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains a Minnow in Other Markets

China Resources Beverage is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the...

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

HK Short notional HK$335bn and has been falling over the last year due to a drop in the market. There are stocks where shorts have risen over the...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Budweiser APAC: Chinese Beer Makers Poised for a Breakout

The Asia Pacific beer industry, boosted by tourism, may drive a breakout for Budweiser APAC, whose shares are near all-time lows.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri