Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NVDA opening its AI ecosystem to the likes of Fujitsu and Qualcomm.</li>
<li>Intel's make-or-break 18A process Panther lake seems to be well received at first look.</li>
<li>Toyota announces Y3trn worth of loans for its Y6trn Industries acquisition, removing concerns for raise.</li>
</ul>


NVDA opening its AI ecosystem to the likes of Fujitsu and Qualcomm.
Intel's make-or-break 18A process Panther lake seems to be well received at first look.
Toyota announces Y3trn worth of loans for its Y6trn Industries acquisition, removing concerns for raise.


Japan Morning Connection: Computex Fails to Excite, but Dip Buyers Stepping in OTD

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. </li>
<li>Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.</li>
<li>China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. </li>
</ul>


More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. 
Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 


China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

<ul>
<li>Positive US-China talks and the de-escalation of tariffs signal a major softening by both sides.</li>
<li>Expect momentum favourites to continue climbing as risk-on greenlights CTA factor buying.</li>
<li>US Pharma rebounded with Trump executive order seen as toothless and vague.</li>
</ul>


Positive US-China talks and the de-escalation of tariffs signal a major softening by both sides.
Expect momentum favourites to continue climbing as risk-on greenlights CTA factor buying.
US Pharma rebounded with Trump executive order seen as toothless and vague.


Japan Morning Connection: Japan Tech and SPE to Continue Higher with Nasdaq100 Back in a Bull Mkt

<ul>
<li>SOX rallied +4% off its lows with a host of positive earnings including Qorvo, Western Digital and Seagate.</li>
<li>Bigger than expected capex plans for Meta positive for Japan SPE to start.</li>
<li>Tokyo Electron numbers yesterday were inline but show less reliance on China sales.</li>
</ul>


SOX rallied +4% off its lows with a host of positive earnings including Qorvo, Western Digital and Seagate.
Bigger than expected capex plans for Meta positive for Japan SPE to start.
Tokyo Electron numbers yesterday were inline but show less reliance on China sales.


Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Go Risk-On Shrugging off Earlier SMCI Weakness

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Japan Morning Connection: Computex Fails to Excite, but Dip Buyers Stepping in OTD

May be further upside for Fujitsu following NVDA NVLink announcement, Intel's new product recieves positive feedback, Toyota discussing loan for...

Andrew Jackson

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Tech and SPE to Continue Higher with Nasdaq100 Back in a Bull Mkt

US-China trade tensions ease as tariffs are de-escalated, resulting in risk-on buying across sectors. Should see improved sentiment for Japan...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Go Risk-On Shrugging off Earlier SMCI Weakness

SOX rallied with positive earnings from Qorvo, Western Digital, and Seagate. Japan SPE benefits from Meta's capex plans. Tokyo Electron shows less...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Computex Fails to Excite, but Dip Buyers Stepping in OTD

May be further upside for Fujitsu following NVDA NVLink announcement, Intel's new product recieves positive feedback, Toyota discussing loan for...

Andrew Jackson

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

​US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Tech and SPE to Continue Higher with Nasdaq100 Back in a Bull Mkt

​US-China trade tensions ease as tariffs are de-escalated, resulting in risk-on buying across sectors. Should see improved sentiment for Japan...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Go Risk-On Shrugging off Earlier SMCI Weakness

SOX rallied with positive earnings from Qorvo, Western Digital, and Seagate. Japan SPE benefits from Meta's capex plans. Tokyo Electron shows less...

Andrew Jackson

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

US-China trade tensions ease as tariffs are de-escalated, resulting in risk-on buying across sectors. Should see improved sentiment for Japan...