Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?</li>
<li>The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?
The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk


Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tech rebound into NVDA print, which came in slightly ahead of estimates. Server related up on SMCI gains.</li>
<li>Expect this to be enough to spark dip buying for Japan SPE plays such as TEL, Disco, as well as likes of Fujikura and MHI.</li>
<li>Hoya has bottomed in the last 2-days and looks primed for more upside after excessive weakness.</li>
</ul>


Tech rebound into NVDA print, which came in slightly ahead of estimates. Server related up on SMCI gains.
Expect this to be enough to spark dip buying for Japan SPE plays such as TEL, Disco, as well as likes of Fujikura and MHI.
Hoya has bottomed in the last 2-days and looks primed for more upside after excessive weakness.


Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Results Enough to Quell Concerns over AI Slowdown

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Trump Adminstration Gearing Up to Further Restrict China's Access to Chip Technology -- Could Restrict Servicing of Existing Equipment</li>
<li>Foxconn and Honda: Could This Be a New Alliance in EV Manufacturing?</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes... </li>
</ul>


Trump Adminstration Gearing Up to Further Restrict China's Access to Chip Technology -- Could Restrict Servicing of Existing Equipment
Foxconn and Honda: Could This Be a New Alliance in EV Manufacturing?
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes... 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump's New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel

<ul>
<li>INTC +16% on the potential for a breakup should see TEL, Lasertec and Ibiden higher.</li>
<li>Micron's new SSD' offering helping memory plays up, possibly lifting Micronics even more.</li>
<li>Kokusai Electric's short interest continues to grow despite the on going squeeze...now &gt;10 dtc.</li>
</ul>


INTC +16% on the potential for a breakup should see TEL, Lasertec and Ibiden higher.
Micron's new SSD' offering helping memory plays up, possibly lifting Micronics even more.
Kokusai Electric's short interest continues to grow despite the on going squeeze...now &gt;10 dtc.


Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment</li>
<li>For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.</li>
<li>WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI &amp; technology transition related increases </li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment
For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.
WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI &amp; technology transition related increases 


Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Results Enough to Quell Concerns over AI Slowdown

Tech rebound into NVDA print slightly ahead of estimates may spark dip buying for Japan SPE. Hoya has bottomed in the last 2 days but looks primed...

Andrew Jackson

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump's New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel

Trump Admin preparing to further limit China's chip access; Foxconn and Honda potentially teaming up for EVs; TSMC considering Intel foundry...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

INTC +16% on potential for breakup should send JP suppliers higher, Micronics may get a further lift, Kokusai Electric short interest ontinues to...

Andrew Jackson

Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

Semi WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering...

William Keating

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Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Results Enough to Quell Concerns over AI Slowdown

​Tech rebound into NVDA print slightly ahead of estimates may spark dip buying for Japan SPE. Hoya has bottomed in the last 2 days but looks primed...

Andrew Jackson

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump's New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel

​Trump Admin preparing to further limit China's chip access; Foxconn and Honda potentially teaming up for EVs; TSMC considering Intel foundry...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

INTC +16% on potential for breakup should send JP suppliers higher, Micronics may get a further lift, Kokusai Electric short interest ontinues to...

Andrew Jackson

Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

Semi WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering...

William Keating

Tech rebound into NVDA print slightly ahead of estimates may spark dip buying for Japan SPE. Hoya has bottomed in the last 2 days but looks primed...

Trump Admin preparing to further limit China's chip access; Foxconn and Honda potentially teaming up for EVs; TSMC considering Intel foundry...