Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>INTC +16% on the potential for a breakup should see TEL, Lasertec and Ibiden higher.</li>
<li>Micron's new SSD' offering helping memory plays up, possibly lifting Micronics even more.</li>
<li>Kokusai Electric's short interest continues to grow despite the on going squeeze...now &gt;10 dtc.</li>
</ul>


INTC +16% on the potential for a breakup should see TEL, Lasertec and Ibiden higher.
Micron's new SSD' offering helping memory plays up, possibly lifting Micronics even more.
Kokusai Electric's short interest continues to grow despite the on going squeeze...now &gt;10 dtc.


Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment</li>
<li>For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.</li>
<li>WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI &amp; technology transition related increases </li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment
For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.
WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI &amp; technology transition related increases 


Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

<ul>
<li>Meta on a 20-day winning steak with humanoid robots into the mix.</li>
<li>Yakult's spike on Friday and subsequent drop may point to more upside given big shareholder returns.</li>
<li>Olympus facing a much harsher reality in China than management were initially suggesting.</li>
</ul>


Meta on a 20-day winning steak with humanoid robots into the mix.
Yakult's spike on Friday and subsequent drop may point to more upside given big shareholder returns.
Olympus facing a much harsher reality in China than management were initially suggesting.


Japan Morning Connection: AMAT Pricing in Friday Sets Soft Tone for JP SPE

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sumco to stop silicon wafer production at Miyazaki plant by 2026, impacting supply chain for semiconductor industry.</li><li>MediaTek experiences revenue spike in January due to tariff uncertainty and Chinese subsidies, indicating potential market volatility.</li><li>Pegatron maintains consistent performance in January amid transition period, highlighting company stability.</li></ul>

Sumco to stop silicon wafer production at Miyazaki plant by 2026, impacting supply chain for semiconductor industry.MediaTek experiences revenue spike in January due to tariff uncertainty and Chinese subsidies, indicating potential market volatility.Pegatron maintains consistent performance in January amid transition period, highlighting company stability.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Feb-2025): Sumco to cease Miyazaki plant's wafer production by 2026.

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

INTC +16% on potential for breakup should send JP suppliers higher, Micronics may get a further lift, Kokusai Electric short interest ontinues to...

Andrew Jackson

Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

Semi WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: AMAT Pricing in Friday Sets Soft Tone for JP SPE

Meta continues winning streak with announcment of AI humanoid robots, Yakult's might have room for upside, and Olympus faces a harsher reality in...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Feb-2025): Sumco to cease Miyazaki plant's wafer production by 2026.

Sumco to cease silicon wafer production in Miyazaki by 2026, MediaTek revenue up in January, Pegatron steady amid transition, Trump imposes steel...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

INTC +16% on potential for breakup should send JP suppliers higher, Micronics may get a further lift, Kokusai Electric short interest ontinues to...

Andrew Jackson

Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

Semi WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: AMAT Pricing in Friday Sets Soft Tone for JP SPE

​Meta continues winning streak with announcment of AI humanoid robots, Yakult's might have room for upside, and Olympus faces a harsher reality in...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Feb-2025): Sumco to cease Miyazaki plant's wafer production by 2026.

Sumco to cease silicon wafer production in Miyazaki by 2026, MediaTek revenue up in January, Pegatron steady amid transition, Trump imposes steel...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Meta continues winning streak with announcment of AI humanoid robots, Yakult's might have room for upside, and Olympus faces a harsher reality in...