Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, about 5% better than forecasted, up 5% QoQ but down ~10% YoY.</li>
<li>Q124 revenues forecasted to decline 17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. Not surprisingly, EBITDA will also decline 33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion.</li>
<li>On a brighter note, demand growth driven by generative AI will roughly double wafer demand for servers (AI+General) by 2027</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, about 5% better than forecasted, up 5% QoQ but down ~10% YoY.
Q124 revenues forecasted to decline 17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. Not surprisingly, EBITDA will also decline 33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion.
On a brighter note, demand growth driven by generative AI will roughly double wafer demand for servers (AI+General) by 2027


SUMCO's Sobering Outlook For Silicon Wafers

<ul>
<li>Global silicon wafer area shipments declined 10% QoQ in Q323 but customer inventory remains at historical highs and is showing no signs of declining</li>
<li>SUMCO's Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423 </li>
<li>The company vowed to make "substantial" production cuts in a bid to bring their inventory situation under control. </li>
</ul>


Global silicon wafer area shipments declined 10% QoQ in Q323 but customer inventory remains at historical highs and is showing no signs of declining
SUMCO's Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423 
The company vowed to make "substantial" production cuts in a bid to bring their inventory situation under control. 


Silicon Wafers. SUMCO Sounds The Alarm As Inventory Continues To Climb

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.</li>
<li>Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided</li>
<li>There's a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment...</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.
Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided
There's a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment...


SUMCO Q1’23 Revenues of ¥109.9 Billion, -6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

<ul>
<li>Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023</li>
<li>Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period</li>
<li>We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments</li>
</ul>


Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023
Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period
We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments


Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)

SUMCO's Sobering Outlook For Silicon Wafers

Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, +5% QoQ but -10% YoY. Q124 revenues -17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. EBITDA -33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion. AI demand will...

William Keating

Silicon Wafers. SUMCO Sounds The Alarm As Inventory Continues To Climb

SUMCO's Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423. The company vowed to make "substantial" production cuts in a bid to bring...

William Keating

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

SUMCO Q1’23 Revenues of ¥109.9 Billion, -6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023...

William Keating

Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Silicon wafers area shipments declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023 while revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion. Q124 revenues will be down ~20%...

William Keating