Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Silicon Wafers & The Looming Leading Edge Supply Crisis

SUMCO Q1 FY2026. Largely As Expected. Share Price Correction Underway, Also As Expected.

Sumco Soars But Their Downturn Recovery Still Remains Very Much A Work In Progress

SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SUMCO has publicly tied new 300mm capacity to substantial price increases; every LTA in the current cohort expires 2027–28; consensus models zero uplift.</li>
<li>Management has publicly conditioned new capacity on substantial price increases; contracts expire 2027–28; consensus models zero pricing uplift — the LTA option costs nothing at the current price.</li>
<li>Initiating BULLISH, top pick in the group; fair value ¥4,200 (9.0x FY2028E EBITDA of ¥184bn); ¥44bn mechanical recovery is the floor — the pricing option is everything above it.</li>
</ul>


SUMCO has publicly tied new 300mm capacity to substantial price increases; every LTA in the current cohort expires 2027–28; consensus models zero uplift.
Management has publicly conditioned new capacity on substantial price increases; contracts expire 2027–28; consensus models zero pricing uplift — the LTA option costs nothing at the current price.
Initiating BULLISH, top pick in the group; fair value ¥4,200 (9.0x FY2028E EBITDA of ¥184bn); ¥44bn mechanical recovery is the floor — the pricing option is everything above it.


SUMCO (3436 JP): ¥44bn of Mechanical Earnings Recovery — Top Pick in the Wafer Group

SUMCO Corp

SUMCO (3436 JP): ¥44bn of Mechanical Earnings Recovery — Top Pick in the Wafer Group