Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Boqi Environmental Hol / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 23rd October, flue gas treatment play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-boqi-environmental-hol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26771:1" rel="noopener">China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK)</a> announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>The Offer Doc was dispatched on the<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1128/2024112800878.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 28th November</a>, and the Offer <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0103/2025010302020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">closed</a> on the 3rd January.</li>
<li>304.6mn shares tendered against the buyback of 150.858mn shares, or a pro-ration of 49.53%. However, how the public shareholders tendered may provide a gauge for future Hong Kong Partial Offers. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 23rd October, flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
The Offer Doc was dispatched on the 28th November, and the Offer closed on the 3rd January.
304.6mn shares tendered against the buyback of 150.858mn shares, or a pro-ration of 49.53%. However, how the public shareholders tendered may provide a gauge for future Hong Kong Partial Offers. 


Boqi Env (2377 HK): Takeaways From The Partial Offer

<ul>
<li>Last month, wealth manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>  <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241213/pdf/06clql94x0mq9g.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> - and subsequently <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241218/pdf/06csc82ywrpv6c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$4.00/share non-binding and indicative proposal from PE outfit Bain Capital.</li>
<li>The question was whether Bain returned to the well, in a space where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal (RPL AU)</a> recently binned its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/platinum-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:914:1" rel="noopener">Platinum (PTM AU)</a> tie-in; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual (PPT AU)</a>'s carve-out has hit a snag. </li>
<li>Roughly two weeks after that Bain rejection, US-based asset investment manager CC Capital Partners has now tabled a A$4.30/share, in cash, non-binding Offer. That's probably enough for Insignia to engage. </li>
</ul>


Last month, wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU)  announced - and subsequently rejected - a A$4.00/share non-binding and indicative proposal from PE outfit Bain Capital.
The question was whether Bain returned to the well, in a space where Regal (RPL AU) recently binned its Platinum (PTM AU) tie-in; and Perpetual (PPT AU)'s carve-out has hit a snag. 
Roughly two weeks after that Bain rejection, US-based asset investment manager CC Capital Partners has now tabled a A$4.30/share, in cash, non-binding Offer. That's probably enough for Insignia to engage. 


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital Wades In With A $4.30/Share NBIO

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK),  Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), ESR Group (1821 HK), Goldlion Holdings (533 HK). 
Lowest spreads: Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (06 Jan) - Vesync, Canvest, Get Nice, Fosun Tourism, GAPack, HKBN, Seven & I

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> may merge quicker than expected. Meaning a one-year "guess the price" ratio. Expect Tsuruha to gain against Welcia from here.</li>
<li>PUSUs exist in Hong Kong. In its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>, XJF should sound out the SFC to put Bi/Hong on notice. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)</a> effectively ticks off another pre-con. This transaction continues to trade too wide to terms. </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha (3391 JP) and Welcia (3141 JP) may merge quicker than expected. Meaning a one-year "guess the price" ratio. Expect Tsuruha to gain against Welcia from here.
PUSUs exist in Hong Kong. In its bid for GAPack (468 HK), XJF should sound out the SFC to put Bi/Hong on notice. 

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK) effectively ticks off another pre-con. This transaction continues to trade too wide to terms. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

Hong Kong

HKBN Ltd., provides telephone voice and data communications services. The Company offers wireless internet service, IDD and IPTV service, local telephony services, and other value-added services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Boqi Env (2377 HK): Takeaways From The Partial Offer

~45% of the public shareholders tendering has been a useful benchmark in past Hong Kong Partial Offers, and so it was again for Boqi.

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (06 Jan) - Vesync, Canvest, Get Nice, Fosun Tourism, GAPack, HKBN, Seven & I

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (15.0%), Get Nice Financial (11.6%), Arcadium Lithium (11.0%), ESR (8.9%), Goldlion (7.3%),...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Boqi Env (2377 HK): Takeaways From The Partial Offer

~45% of the public shareholders tendering has been a useful benchmark in past Hong Kong Partial Offers, and so it was again for Boqi.

David Blennerhassett

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital Wades In With A $4.30/Share NBIO

Terms are non-binding. I think IFL should engage here. However, I'm not confident Tanarra is willing to kick out at a 7.5% premium to Bain's terms.

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (06 Jan) - Vesync, Canvest, Get Nice, Fosun Tourism, GAPack, HKBN, Seven & I

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (15.0%), Get Nice Financial (11.6%), Arcadium Lithium (11.0%), ESR (8.9%), Goldlion (7.3%),...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett