Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

China Shengmu Organic Milk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 30th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-modern-dairy-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6785:1" rel="noopener">China Modern Dairy (1117 HK)</a> (CMD) entered into a conditional SPA to acquire a 1.28% stake in raw milk producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a> (CSM). </li>
<li>CMD currently holds 29.99% in CSM. Should the SPA complete, CMD clears 30% and will be obligated to make an Offer for all shares not held. </li>
<li>The Offer Price will be A$0.35/share, a 14.75% premium to undisturbed. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. </li>
</ul>


On the 30th October, China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) (CMD) entered into a conditional SPA to acquire a 1.28% stake in raw milk producer China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK) (CSM). 
CMD currently holds 29.99% in CSM. Should the SPA complete, CMD clears 30% and will be obligated to make an Offer for all shares not held. 
The Offer Price will be A$0.35/share, a 14.75% premium to undisturbed. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. 


On China Shengmu (1432)'s Conditional MGO

<ul>
<li>First it was the Li family's, via <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.</li>
<li>Now the U.S.'s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” - i.e. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a> - from the US telecommunication network.</li>
<li>The FCC order cites HKT's affiliation with black-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW (8 HK)</a>, HKT's parent.  A stake it acquired twenty years ago.</li>
</ul>


First it was the Li family's, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
Now the U.S.'s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” - i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) - from the US telecommunication network.
The FCC order cites HKT's affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT's parent.  A stake it acquired twenty years ago.


The Li Family's Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, China Telecom, HKEx, Hua Hong Semiconductor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, China Telecom, HKEx, Hua Hong Semiconductor.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 26th): Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

Hong Kong

HKBN Ltd., provides telephone voice and data communications services. The Company offers wireless internet service, IDD and IPTV service, local telephony services, and other value-added services.

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HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

On China Shengmu (1432)'s Conditional MGO

Trading at a 6%/14% gross/annual. spread assuming payment in late April. I don't have a strong conviction on the back-end. There's a good chance...

David Blennerhassett

The Li Family's Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT

PCCW should not trade at a massive premium. Unless PCCW or HKT is next in the cross-hairs. However this latest FCC development is unlikely to spur...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 26th): Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba (9988 HK), Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK), Meituan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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