Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Thailand’s 1Q25 GDP grew by +0.7% QoQ and +3.1% YoY, exceeding the consensus estimate of +0.6% QoQ and +2.9% YoY.</li><li>Despite the stronger- than-expected figure, KTX views the economic outlook for the remainder of the year as still challenging due to trade-related risks and expects the main driver of growth to come from government stimulus.</li><li>We recommend speculating on domestic demand-related stocks, such as CPALL and MTC, while also watching for potential new measures from the government following the afternoon meeting of the Economic Stimulus Committee yesterday. </li></ul>

Thailand’s 1Q25 GDP grew by +0.7% QoQ and +3.1% YoY, exceeding the consensus estimate of +0.6% QoQ and +2.9% YoY.Despite the stronger- than-expected figure, KTX views the economic outlook for the remainder of the year as still challenging due to trade-related risks and expects the main driver of growth to come from government stimulus.We recommend speculating on domestic demand-related stocks, such as CPALL and MTC, while also watching for potential new measures from the government following the afternoon meeting of the Economic Stimulus Committee yesterday. 

Economic Update: 1Q25 GDP Growth - May 21, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,200/1,192 points and the resistance at 1,215/1,219 points (75-day EMA).</li><li>In the short term, the market is still waiting for confirmation of where the peak of Wave 1 (of the 5-wave upward structure in the Elliott Wave theory) will form before entering a correction phase.</li><li>Wave 2 is expected to retrace around 50–61.8% of Wave 1’s length. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,200/1,192 points and the resistance at 1,215/1,219 points (75-day EMA).In the short term, the market is still waiting for confirmation of where the peak of Wave 1 (of the 5-wave upward structure in the Elliott Wave theory) will form before entering a correction phase.Wave 2 is expected to retrace around 50–61.8% of Wave 1’s length. 

KTX Zoom: China’s Trade Balance - MAY 9, 2025

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to remain volatile, with the resistance levels at 1,220/1,250 points and the support at 1,170/1,150 points.</li><li>Positive factors include a return of buying in risk assets, particularly if Trump eases tariff measures — such as delaying tariffs on specific sectors like automobiles and semiconductors, and signaling a reduction in reciprocal tariffs for US trading partners making progress in negotiations (e.g., South Korea, Japan); and if China announces details of a new economic stimulus package.</li><li>On the domestic front, key factors to watch include the successful launch of the TESG Extra Fund, expected to generate Bt15-20bn in new capital inflows, and progress in Thailand’s negotiations on reciprocal tariffs with the US, along with the government’s gradual rollout of economic stimulus measures to offset trade war impacts (notably, the IMF has cut its 2025E global GDP growth forecast from 2.9% to 1.8%).</li></ul>

KTX expects the index to remain volatile, with the resistance levels at 1,220/1,250 points and the support at 1,170/1,150 points.Positive factors include a return of buying in risk assets, particularly if Trump eases tariff measures — such as delaying tariffs on specific sectors like automobiles and semiconductors, and signaling a reduction in reciprocal tariffs for US trading partners making progress in negotiations (e.g., South Korea, Japan); and if China announces details of a new economic stimulus package.On the domestic front, key factors to watch include the successful launch of the TESG Extra Fund, expected to generate Bt15-20bn in new capital inflows, and progress in Thailand’s negotiations on reciprocal tariffs with the US, along with the government’s gradual rollout of economic stimulus measures to offset trade war impacts (notably, the IMF has cut its 2025E global GDP growth forecast from 2.9% to 1.8%).

<ul><li>KTX has compiled the views of major US banks following US President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on “Liberation Day.”</li><li>Overall, banks expressed a moderate level of concern. Asset quality remains stable, but some banks have begun setting aside provisions in advance, based on more negative assumptions.</li><li>Thai banks, however, are unlikely to escape the impact. </li></ul>

KTX has compiled the views of major US banks following US President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on “Liberation Day.”Overall, banks expressed a moderate level of concern. Asset quality remains stable, but some banks have begun setting aside provisions in advance, based on more negative assumptions.Thai banks, however, are unlikely to escape the impact. 

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,208/1,200 points and the resistance at 1,230/1,235 points.</li><li>In the short term, the market is still awaiting confirmation of the peak of Wave 1 (of the 5-wave uptrend in the Elliott Wave theory) before entering a correction phase.</li><li>Wave 2 typically retraces around 50-61.8% of Wave 1’s length.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,208/1,200 points and the resistance at 1,230/1,235 points.In the short term, the market is still awaiting confirmation of the peak of Wave 1 (of the 5-wave uptrend in the Elliott Wave theory) before entering a correction phase.Wave 2 typically retraces around 50-61.8% of Wave 1’s length.

KTX Zoom: BoE Expected to Cut Interest Rates Further - MAY 8, 2025

Thailand

Kasikornbank is a leading Thai banking group providing comprehensive commercial and retail banking services, alongside securities and other related financial businesses. The bank offers a wide array of products including deposit accounts, debit and credit cards, long-term and syndicated loans, cash management, and investment products. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was established on June 8, 1945.

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Kasikornbank (KBANK TB)

Economic Update: 1Q25 GDP Growth - May 21, 2025

Thailand’s 1Q25 GDP expanded better than expected, with fiscal policy anticipated to play a key role in driving growth going forward.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: China’s Trade Balance - MAY 9, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,200/1,192 points and the resistance at 1,215/1,219...

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: May 2025

Positive factors include a return of buying in risk assets, particularly if Trump eases tariff measures — such as delaying tariffs on specific...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: Banking - MAY 8, 2025

KTX has compiled the views of major US banks following US President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on “Liberation Day.”

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: BoE Expected to Cut Interest Rates Further - MAY 8, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,208/1,200 points and the resistance at 1,230/1,235 points.

Krungthai XSpring

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