Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintained Outperform with a 12M fair value of Bt212.90, based on PBV of 0.85x.</li><li>KBANK reported 1Q26 core profit of Bt13.4bn (-3% YoY, +30% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 24% and 18%, respectively.</li><li>Non-interest income came in above expectations (+28.4% YoY, +17.6% QoQ), including a one-off compensation gain of Bt1,455mn.</li></ul>

We maintained Outperform with a 12M fair value of Bt212.90, based on PBV of 0.85x.KBANK reported 1Q26 core profit of Bt13.4bn (-3% YoY, +30% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 24% and 18%, respectively.Non-interest income came in above expectations (+28.4% YoY, +17.6% QoQ), including a one-off compensation gain of Bt1,455mn.

KBANK: Non-NII And Cost Control Were Key Highlights This Quarter

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating and slightly raise 12M FWD fair value to Bt212.90 (from Bt210.00), based on PBV of 0.85x, reflecting revised macro assumptions with an upward-sloping yield curve and 10Y yield at 1.83% (from 1.23%).</li><li>Earnings face pressure from declining interest rates, but the rate cycle likely bottomed. KBANK’s proactive capital management—share buybacks and high dividends—should limit downside, with a 2H25 DPS of Bt12 (6.2% yield; XD on April 21, 2026).</li><li>We expect KBANK’s 1Q26E profit at Bt10.7bn, down 21.6% YoY but up 5.1% QoQ.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating and slightly raise 12M FWD fair value to Bt212.90 (from Bt210.00), based on PBV of 0.85x, reflecting revised macro assumptions with an upward-sloping yield curve and 10Y yield at 1.83% (from 1.23%).Earnings face pressure from declining interest rates, but the rate cycle likely bottomed. KBANK’s proactive capital management—share buybacks and high dividends—should limit downside, with a 2H25 DPS of Bt12 (6.2% yield; XD on April 21, 2026).We expect KBANK’s 1Q26E profit at Bt10.7bn, down 21.6% YoY but up 5.1% QoQ.

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): 1Q26E Earnings Likely Pressured By NIM

<ul><li>KBANK reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt10.3bn (-4.5% YoY, -20.1% QoQ), ~11% below our estimate.</li><li>Expenses was higher than expected (+3.2% YoY, +9.8% QoQ), lifting the cost-to-income ratio to 48.1% due to IT investments to expand service channels.</li><li>Loan book edged down -0.3% YoY (+2.5% QoQ), while NIM contracted (-42 bps YoY, -18 bps QoQ).</li></ul>

KBANK reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt10.3bn (-4.5% YoY, -20.1% QoQ), ~11% below our estimate.Expenses was higher than expected (+3.2% YoY, +9.8% QoQ), lifting the cost-to-income ratio to 48.1% due to IT investments to expand service channels.Loan book edged down -0.3% YoY (+2.5% QoQ), while NIM contracted (-42 bps YoY, -18 bps QoQ).

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): Earnings Miss on Higher Costs

<ul><li>We maintain a “Neutral” rating with a new 12M FV of Bt181.50, based on 0.73x PBV (from Bt171.50, 0.69x), using a multiple regression model (R² = 80%) under new macro assumptions of Rf 1.04% and MRP 5.79% (from 1.45% and 5.26%).</li><li>KBANK reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.0bn (+6% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating estimates on stronger Non-NII (+23% YoY, +8% QoQ) from fund management fees and FVTPL gains.</li><li>NII fell (–7% YoY, –1% QoQ) on flat loans and weaker NIM, but cost control kept PPOP flat YoY (+2% QoQ).</li></ul>

We maintain a “Neutral” rating with a new 12M FV of Bt181.50, based on 0.73x PBV (from Bt171.50, 0.69x), using a multiple regression model (R² = 80%) under new macro assumptions of Rf 1.04% and MRP 5.79% (from 1.45% and 5.26%).KBANK reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.0bn (+6% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating estimates on stronger Non-NII (+23% YoY, +8% QoQ) from fund management fees and FVTPL gains.NII fell (–7% YoY, –1% QoQ) on flat loans and weaker NIM, but cost control kept PPOP flat YoY (+2% QoQ).

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): Upbeat Earnings Driven By Stronger Non-NII

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The banking sector’s 1Q26 results came in broadly better than market expectations, supported by strong non-NII growth and effective cost control, despite NIM pressure weighing on interest income.</li><li>Provisions increased to cushion uncertainties, while asset quality remained stable to slightly improved.</li><li>Sector-wide strategies remain aligned, focusing on quality growth, cost discipline, and proactive provisioning to navigate uncertainties.</li></ul>

The banking sector’s 1Q26 results came in broadly better than market expectations, supported by strong non-NII growth and effective cost control, despite NIM pressure weighing on interest income.Provisions increased to cushion uncertainties, while asset quality remained stable to slightly improved.Sector-wide strategies remain aligned, focusing on quality growth, cost discipline, and proactive provisioning to navigate uncertainties.

Banking: Thai Banks Under Pressure: Prioritizing Quality, Tightening Risk Control...

Thailand

Kasikornbank is a leading Thai banking group providing comprehensive commercial and retail banking services, alongside securities and other related financial businesses. The bank offers a wide array of products including deposit accounts, debit and credit cards, long-term and syndicated loans, cash management, and investment products. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was established on June 8, 1945.

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Kasikornbank (KBANK TB)

KBANK: Non-NII And Cost Control Were Key Highlights This Quarter

KBANK reported 1Q26 core profit of Bt13.4bn (-3% YoY, +30% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 24% and 18%, respectively.

Krungthai XSpring

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): 1Q26E Earnings Likely Pressured By NIM

Earnings face pressure from declining interest rates, but the rate cycle likely bottomed. KBANK’s proactive capital management—share buybacks and...

Krungthai XSpring

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): Earnings Miss on Higher Costs

Expenses was higher than expected (+3.2% YoY, +9.8% QoQ), lifting the cost-to-income ratio to 48.1% due to IT investments to expand service channels.

Krungthai XSpring

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): Upbeat Earnings Driven By Stronger Non-NII

KBANK reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.0bn (+6% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating estimates on stronger Non-NII (+23% YoY, +8% QoQ) from fund management fees...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: Thai Banks Under Pressure: Prioritizing Quality, Tightening Risk Control...

The banking sector’s 1Q26 results came in broadly better than market expectations, supported by strong non-NII growth and effective cost control...

Krungthai XSpring

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