Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst &amp; Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of inter-company loans, more liberal accounting policies, and the 30% purchase of a Sri Lankan company from a related party at a 120% market premium.* Among other items, an independent research report further alleged that Group Lease purposely misled investors, Ernst &amp; Young, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Our own research suggests that each…

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst &amp; Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of inter-company loans, more liberal accounting policies, and the 30% purchase of a Sri Lankan company from a related party at a 120% market premium.* Among other items, an independent research report further alleged that Group Lease purposely misled investors, Ernst &amp; Young, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Our own research suggests that each…

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Thanachart Capital shows explosive upside momentum after breaking higher out of well defined bull wedge formation and we see current weakness as a buying opportunity for a leg higher that shows increasing risk of overshooting out normalized target due largely to risk that the SET 50 sees a larger degree macro rise above 1,100 that has not been surpassed in many years. Our base case called for a pause at 1,100 followed by a pullback to SET 50 1,040-50 to re load for a second assault on 1,100. If…

Thanachart Capital shows explosive upside momentum after breaking higher out of well defined bull wedge formation and we see current weakness as a buying opportunity for a leg higher that shows increasing risk of overshooting out normalized target due largely to risk that the SET 50 sees a larger degree macro rise above 1,100 that has not been surpassed in many years. Our base case called for a pause at 1,100 followed by a pullback to SET 50 1,040-50 to re load for a second assault on 1,100. If…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Where understanding, forecasting credit metrics is more of an art than a science, we believe looking at a wide array of variables, including those that are less mainstream, can offer even greater insights. Newly released data on Thailand’s cheque clearing may be a positive indicator of the economy, or at least on spending. September data shows some of the lowest levels recorded in years on the value of returned cheques compared with total cleared cheques in Thailand’s provinces.  For Bangkok the…

Where understanding, forecasting credit metrics is more of an art than a science, we believe looking at a wide array of variables, including those that are less mainstream, can offer even greater insights. Newly released data on Thailand’s cheque clearing may be a positive indicator of the economy, or at least on spending. September data shows some of the lowest levels recorded in years on the value of returned cheques compared with total cleared cheques in Thailand’s provinces.  For Bangkok the…

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with reasonably populated financial data, there are 25 banks. We examine credit quality metrics ahead of upcoming results on 21 October, taking into account all Thai banks. Specifically, we look at some meaningful divergence in trends of bad loan growth, as well as bad loan ratios. The Islamic Bank of Thailand (IBT) stands out with the highest non-performing…

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with reasonably populated financial data, there are 25 banks. We examine credit quality metrics ahead of upcoming results on 21 October, taking into account all Thai banks. Specifically, we look at some meaningful divergence in trends of bad loan growth, as well as bad loan ratios. The Islamic Bank of Thailand (IBT) stands out with the highest non-performing…

A Broader View of Thai Bank Credit Quality

* TMB Bank’s (TMB.TB) run of improving fundamentals have come to an end; * The core niche SME loan segment hasn’t grown for several quarters, and TMB is now reliant on lower yielding      mortgage lending for growth; * The only offset to credit weakness and lower NIMs is TMB’s latest bancassurance deal; and* Readacross to other Thai commercial banks remains negative.  INVESTMENT SUMMARYAfter being the last bank to struggle with legacy Asian Financial Crisis problem assets, seven years of bank…

* TMB Bank’s (TMB.TB) run of improving fundamentals have come to an end; * The core niche SME loan segment hasn’t grown for several quarters, and TMB is now reliant on lower yielding      mortgage lending for growth; * The only offset to credit weakness and lower NIMs is TMB’s latest bancassurance deal; and* Readacross to other Thai commercial banks remains negative.  INVESTMENT SUMMARYAfter being the last bank to struggle with legacy Asian Financial Crisis problem assets, seven years of bank…

Thailand

Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited provides financial services including consumer, corporate and mortgage financing.  Additionally the Company provides securities underwriting and investment advisory services.  Thanachart Capital also provides insurance services through its subsidiaries.

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Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB)

Group Lease - Lessons from Icharus

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst & Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bull on Thanachart Capital

Thanachart Capital shows explosive upside momentum after breaking higher out of well defined bull wedge formation and we see current weakness as a...

Thomas Schroeder

Thailand's Returned Cheques

Where understanding, forecasting credit metrics is more of an art than a science, we believe looking at a wide array of variables, including those...

Daniel Tabbush

A Broader View of Thai Bank Credit Quality

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with...

Daniel Tabbush

TMB Bank - Going Nowhere…Fast

* TMB Bank’s (TMB.TB) run of improving fundamentals have come to an end; * The core niche SME loan segment hasn’t grown for several quarters, and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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