Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TTB reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt5.3bn (+0.5% YoY, +5.9% QoQ), 8% above our and the market’s estimates, supported by stronger fee income and lower provisions.</li><li>Non-NII rose 23% YoY and 7% QoQ, beating forecasts, driven by robust fee income from mutual funds and the consolidation of TNS (Thanachart Securities).</li><li>We switch to Neutral (from Underperform) with a new 12M TP of Bt2.00 (from Bt1.80), implying an upside of around 9%, consistent with the view that downside risk is now limited from a tactical perspective.</li></ul>

TTB reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt5.3bn (+0.5% YoY, +5.9% QoQ), 8% above our and the market’s estimates, supported by stronger fee income and lower provisions.Non-NII rose 23% YoY and 7% QoQ, beating forecasts, driven by robust fee income from mutual funds and the consolidation of TNS (Thanachart Securities).We switch to Neutral (from Underperform) with a new 12M TP of Bt2.00 (from Bt1.80), implying an upside of around 9%, consistent with the view that downside risk is now limited from a tactical perspective.

TTB: Upbeat Earnings On Solid Non-NII And Lower Provisions

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>The PBV and PE valuations for TMB Thanachart, which are close to those of SCBx, seem stretched; TMB Thanachart’s return trends are well below those of SCBx</li>
<li>On the weighted metrics applied to our proprietary scorecard, TMB Thanachart is the new bottom marker in the scorecard among its Thai bank peers</li>
<li>Krung Thai was our core buy-rated Thai bank; we downgrade it to a hold, as its valuation discounts to its own history and its peer SCBx are no longer compelling</li>
</ul>


The PBV and PE valuations for TMB Thanachart, which are close to those of SCBx, seem stretched; TMB Thanachart’s return trends are well below those of SCBx
On the weighted metrics applied to our proprietary scorecard, TMB Thanachart is the new bottom marker in the scorecard among its Thai bank peers
Krung Thai was our core buy-rated Thai bank; we downgrade it to a hold, as its valuation discounts to its own history and its peer SCBx are no longer compelling


Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

<ul><li>We maintain an Underperform rating with a target price of Bt1.84, based on a PBV of 0.71x (derived from a regression model).</li><li>The long-term growth outlook is weaker than the industry average, with profit growth expected to mark a negative CAGR of -5.1% during 2025-27E due to the expiration of tax benefits.</li><li>From a tactical perspective, the risk is viewed as neutral.</li></ul>

We maintain an Underperform rating with a target price of Bt1.84, based on a PBV of 0.71x (derived from a regression model).The long-term growth outlook is weaker than the industry average, with profit growth expected to mark a negative CAGR of -5.1% during 2025-27E due to the expiration of tax benefits.From a tactical perspective, the risk is viewed as neutral.

TMBTHANACHART BANK Plc - Better Asset Quality; Lower Provisions and NPLs

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt2.33, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 10.1%.</li><li>Given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and volatility in financial markets, we are in the process of reviewing and revising the valuation method for the banking sector.</li><li>TTB reported a net profit of Bt5.1bn in 1Q25, down 5.2% YoY but up 2.1% QoQ. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt2.33, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 10.1%.Given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and volatility in financial markets, we are in the process of reviewing and revising the valuation method for the banking sector.TTB reported a net profit of Bt5.1bn in 1Q25, down 5.2% YoY but up 2.1% QoQ. 

Tmbthanachart Bank - Downbeat 1Q25 Earnings

<ul><li>We downgrade to a Neutral rating (from Outperform) after the stock price increased by 5.0% over the past month (compared to the SET’s -0.8%).</li><li>As a result, the tactical outlook has been adjusted to limited upside risk from the previous neutral.</li><li>Our new 12-month fair value (12M FV) is Bt2.37 (previously Bt2.25), based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 9.8% (previously 10.2%).</li></ul>

We downgrade to a Neutral rating (from Outperform) after the stock price increased by 5.0% over the past month (compared to the SET’s -0.8%).As a result, the tactical outlook has been adjusted to limited upside risk from the previous neutral.Our new 12-month fair value (12M FV) is Bt2.37 (previously Bt2.25), based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 9.8% (previously 10.2%).

Tmbthanachart Bank - Provisions to Decline; Cautious Growth Approach Maintained

Thailand

TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services. The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, and investment banking services to its customers throughout Thailand.  It also has branches in Hong Kong, Laos, and Cayman Island.

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TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB)

TTB: Upbeat Earnings On Solid Non-NII And Lower Provisions

TTB reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt5.3bn (+0.5% YoY, +5.9% QoQ), 8% above our and the market’s estimates, supported by stronger fee income and lower...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...

Victor Galliano

TMBTHANACHART BANK Plc - Better Asset Quality; Lower Provisions and NPLs

The long-term growth outlook is weaker than the industry average, with profit growth expected to mark a negative CAGR of -5.1% during 2025-27E due...

Krungthai XSpring

Tmbthanachart Bank - Downbeat 1Q25 Earnings

We maintain a Neutral rating with a 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt2.33, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 10.1%.

Krungthai XSpring

Tmbthanachart Bank - Provisions to Decline; Cautious Growth Approach Maintained

We downgrade to a Neutral rating (from Outperform) after the stock price increased by 5.0% over the past month (compared to the SET’s -0.8%).

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

TTB: Upbeat Earnings On Solid Non-NII And Lower Provisions

TTB reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt5.3bn (+0.5% YoY, +5.9% QoQ), 8% above our and the market’s estimates, supported by stronger fee income and lower...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

​Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...

Victor Galliano

TMBTHANACHART BANK Plc - Better Asset Quality; Lower Provisions and NPLs

The long-term growth outlook is weaker than the industry average, with profit growth expected to mark a negative CAGR of -5.1% during 2025-27E due...

Krungthai XSpring

Tmbthanachart Bank - Downbeat 1Q25 Earnings

We maintain a Neutral rating with a 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt2.33, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 10.1%.

Krungthai XSpring

Tmbthanachart Bank - Provisions to Decline; Cautious Growth Approach Maintained

We downgrade to a Neutral rating (from Outperform) after the stock price increased by 5.0% over the past month (compared to the SET’s -0.8%).

Krungthai XSpring

Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...