External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect PICC P&amp;C, the P&amp;C forerunner, to meet both auto and non-auto combined ratio (CoR) guidance of 97%/100%, to land at 96.9%/99.8%, based on our forecast.</li><li>With a benign competitive landscape under tightened regulatory scrutiny and the industry self-discipline convention led by 8 top P&amp;C insurers in Nov 2023, we expect the insurer’s auto expense ratio to drop in 2H23, primarily in 4Q23, to 27.5%, flat vs FY22, whereas the loss ratio to rise to 69.4% (vs 68.1% in FY22), affected by increasing natural catastrophic (NAT CAT) claims in 3Q23.</li><li>In 2024E, we estimate the underwriting profit to rise ~12% YoY, driven by 7% total premium growth and a slight CoR improvement to 98.0% (-0.1pct from FY23E’s 98.1%), thanks to an optimized non-auto structure with risk clearance in some loss-making lines, i.e. liability and commercial property. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect PICC P&amp;C, the P&amp;C forerunner, to meet both auto and non-auto combined ratio (CoR) guidance of 97%/100%, to land at 96.9%/99.8%, based on our forecast.With a benign competitive landscape under tightened regulatory scrutiny and the industry self-discipline convention led by 8 top P&amp;C insurers in Nov 2023, we expect the insurer’s auto expense ratio to drop in 2H23, primarily in 4Q23, to 27.5%, flat vs FY22, whereas the loss ratio to rise to 69.4% (vs 68.1% in FY22), affected by increasing natural catastrophic (NAT CAT) claims in 3Q23.In 2024E, we estimate the underwriting profit to rise ~12% YoY, driven by 7% total premium growth and a slight CoR improvement to 98.0% (-0.1pct from FY23E’s 98.1%), thanks to an optimized non-auto structure with risk clearance in some loss-making lines, i.e. liability and commercial property. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - Expect FY23E CoR Guidance Met

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The earnings decline at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)</a> is well in place for the past three years and including the last 12 months and YTD. </li>
<li>A worsening China should see accelerated weakness at Ping An Insurance: bond mark downs, less product sales, lower bank contribution, falling investment returns as rates are cut.</li>
<li>Earnings risk perspective: profit RMB79bn in LTM against bond holdings of RMB2,622bn putting its bonds/profit at 33x. Bonds to capital is 2.9x: book value risk too.</li>
</ul>


The earnings decline at Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH) is well in place for the past three years and including the last 12 months and YTD. 
A worsening China should see accelerated weakness at Ping An Insurance: bond mark downs, less product sales, lower bank contribution, falling investment returns as rates are cut.
Earnings risk perspective: profit RMB79bn in LTM against bond holdings of RMB2,622bn putting its bonds/profit at 33x. Bonds to capital is 2.9x: book value risk too.


Ping An Insurance - Worsening Profit for Some Years, Can Accelerate with Corporate Bond Impairments

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 12th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight Hong Kong short weekly changes in Citic Sec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 12th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight Hong Kong short weekly changes in Citic Sec.


Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>PICC P&amp;C's Q3 underwriting profitability deteriorated due to typhoon/catastrophe-related losses in both motor and non-motor business.</li>
<li>Samsung Life's new business growth momentum continued in Q3'23; new business CSM margin slightly improved QoQ.</li>
<li>Prudential disclosed limited details in its Q3 results but we can see the growth trend of new business volume and profits continuing in the quarter.</li>
</ul>


PICC P&amp;C's Q3 underwriting profitability deteriorated due to typhoon/catastrophe-related losses in both motor and non-motor business.
Samsung Life's new business growth momentum continued in Q3'23; new business CSM margin slightly improved QoQ.
Prudential disclosed limited details in its Q3 results but we can see the growth trend of new business volume and profits continuing in the quarter.


APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 5th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, Petrochina, and China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 5th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Baba, Petrochina, and China Mobile.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Petrochina, China Mobile

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - Expect FY23E CoR Guidance Met

We expect PICC P&C, the P&C forerunner, to meet both auto and non-auto combined ratio (CoR) guidance of 97%/100%, to land at 96.9%/99.8%, based on...

CMB International

Ping An Insurance - Worsening Profit for Some Years, Can Accelerate with Corporate Bond Impairments

Ping An Insurance can see meaningful risk to profit and book value from mark downs in its corporate bonds with a weak China economy.

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: Citic Sec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 12th and highlight short interest changes in Citic Sec.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024

While we see limited upside in both PICC P&C and Samsung Life, we believe Prudential is the only one out of the three insurance stocks we...

Alec Tseung

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Petrochina, China Mobile

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 5th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Petrochina, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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