Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Debt Capital Markets

We believe the trade war improvement is temporary and we see this as a selling opportunity for cyclical credits in general. The trade war will make sure we have slowing growth which is translated into low rates. Low rates and low growth mean money inflow into the bond market (from the equity market) which we believe will favour high yield rather than high-grade bonds. However, slow growth could also mean rising defaults. As a result, we prefer to remain within "BB-" to "BBB-" sector and avoid lower credit quality part of the credit curve. Credit research is key and will create alpha in this environment, in our view.

We believe the trade war improvement is temporary and we see this as a selling opportunity for cyclical credits in general. The trade war will make sure we have slowing growth which is translated into low rates. Low rates and low growth mean money inflow into the bond market (from the equity market) which we believe will favour high yield rather than high-grade bonds. However, slow growth could also mean rising defaults. As a result, we prefer to remain within "BB-" to "BBB-" sector and avoid lower credit quality part of the credit curve. Credit research is key and will create alpha in this environment, in our view. 

Bondcritic Market Monitor (18-Nov-19): Credit Homework, Slowing China, & Volatility

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href="#lucror-entity-20744" target="_blank" rel="noopener">361 degrees international</a></li><li><a href="#lucror-entity-20720" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Binhai Investment</a></li><li><a href="#lucror-entity-8205" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China South City</a></li><li><a href="#lucror-entity-20001" target="_blank" rel="noopener">International Container Term Services</a></li><li><a href="#lucror-entity-216" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href="#lucror-entity-14152" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yanlord Land</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.361 degrees internationalBinhai InvestmentChina South CityInternational Container Term ServicesTata Motors LtdYanlord Land

Morning Views Asia: 361 degrees international, Binhai Investment, China South City

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/361-degrees-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20744:1" rel="noopener">361 degrees international (1361 HK)</a> (361)’s 1H’19 results confirm management’s intention to repurchase the bonds and reduce the company’s finance cost. The bond’s underperformance since the results came out on 26-Aug led us to review our recommendation.
S&amp;P and Fitch downgraded 361’s senior unsecured debt rating to BB- from BB in March on weakening operating cashflow and competitive position in China’s sport footwear and apparel industry. 1H’19 results and the bond repurchase show us management has the intention to improve the company’s credit ratings.
Together with DEGREE 6/21’s attractive value at 19.5% yield to worst (YTW), 1.5 year in the remaining year to maturity, and ample liquidity to repurchase the bonds, we revise our recommendation on the bonds to OVERWEIGHT from UNDERWEIGHT.

361 degrees international (1361 HK) (361)’s 1H’19 results confirm management’s intention to repurchase the bonds and reduce the company’s finance cost. The bond’s underperformance since the results came out on 26-Aug led us to review our recommendation.
S&amp;P and Fitch downgraded 361’s senior unsecured debt rating to BB- from BB in March on weakening operating cashflow and competitive position in China’s sport footwear and apparel industry. 1H’19 results and the bond repurchase show us management has the intention to improve the company’s credit ratings.
Together with DEGREE 6/21’s attractive value at 19.5% yield to worst (YTW), 1.5 year in the remaining year to maturity, and ample liquidity to repurchase the bonds, we revise our recommendation on the bonds to OVERWEIGHT from UNDERWEIGHT.

361 Degrees International: Too Liquid to Quit

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - October 2019 - Lucror Analytics

China

361 Degrees International Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes sportswear products, including athletic footwear, apparel and accessories.

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361 Degrees International (1361 HK)

Bondcritic Market Monitor (18-Nov-19): Credit Homework, Slowing China, & Volatility

We believe the trade war improvement is temporary and we see this as a selling opportunity for cyclical credits in general. The trade war will make...

Bondcritic

Morning Views Asia: 361 degrees international, Binhai Investment, China South City

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

361 Degrees International: Too Liquid to Quit

361 degrees international (1361 HK) (361)’s 1H’19 results confirm management’s intention to repurchase the bonds and reduce the company’s finance...

Bondcritic

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - October 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

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