Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.</li><li>The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.</li><li>The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. </li></ul>

The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. 

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.</li><li>However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.</li><li>This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. </li></ul>

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. 

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.</li><li>There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.</li><li>A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

<ul><li>Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.</li><li>We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).</li><li>However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. </li></ul>

Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. 

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray</li>
<li>Ince inception, it has gained 112% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 24%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray
Ince inception, it has gained 112% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 24%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 46

Thailand

Amata Corporation Public Company Limited develops industrial estates primarily served for manufacturing plants and factories. The Company acquires land and develops essential infrastructure and facilities ready for industrialized operations. Ameta also has overseas investments in Vietnam.

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Amata Corp Public (AMATA TB)

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to...

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of...

Krungthai XSpring

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

The current valuation indicates downside of approximately -11% alongside very limited upside tactically. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating.

Krungthai XSpring

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 46

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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