HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weight loss drug business has indeed significantly alleviated concerns about overcapacity issue in those leading CDMOs, but they do not have such a strong driving force on CROs.</li>
<li>The last straw that hits an industry is often not due to the disappearance of demographic dividends/declining demand/poor financial performance of companies, etc., but rather to policy-guided capital flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3d-medicines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33790:1" rel="noopener">3D Medicines (1244 HK)</a> can be said a typical negative example in biopharmaceutical industry, and it is easy to be “manipulated”. We recommend investors stay away from such high-risk company.</li>
</ul>


Weight loss drug business has indeed significantly alleviated concerns about overcapacity issue in those leading CDMOs, but they do not have such a strong driving force on CROs.
The last straw that hits an industry is often not due to the disappearance of demographic dividends/declining demand/poor financial performance of companies, etc., but rather to policy-guided capital flows.

3D Medicines (1244 HK) can be said a typical negative example in biopharmaceutical industry, and it is easy to be “manipulated”. We recommend investors stay away from such high-risk company.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.6) - Weight Loss Drug CXO, Policy-Guided Capital Flows, 3D Medicines

<ul>
<li>The pricing of core product Envafolimab doesn’t have an advantage over competitors. Its market opportunities and profit margins are very limited if seen from both production side and sales side.</li>
<li>3DMed clearly faces financial pressure, and may not smoothly promote other pipelines. Under current market environment, it’s almost impossible to achieve substantial refinancing. The survival of 3DMed cannot be guaranteed.</li>
<li>The fundamentals of 3DMed are not strong enough to justify high valuation. Current share price is clearly overvalued.Eventually the market will return to rationality. We recommend investors offload in time.</li>
</ul>


The pricing of core product Envafolimab doesn’t have an advantage over competitors. Its market opportunities and profit margins are very limited if seen from both production side and sales side.
3DMed clearly faces financial pressure, and may not smoothly promote other pipelines. Under current market environment, it’s almost impossible to achieve substantial refinancing. The survival of 3DMed cannot be guaranteed.
The fundamentals of 3DMed are not strong enough to justify high valuation. Current share price is clearly overvalued.Eventually the market will return to rationality. We recommend investors offload in time.


3D Medicines (1244.HK) - The Bubble Will Eventually Burst

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Unlike ADC, there're still doubts on the outlook of whole bispecific antibody mechanism. Alphamab Oncology doesn't actively promote related head-to-head trials, which makes people doubt the competitiveness of its products.</li>
<li>Investors' trust in Alphamab Oncology continues to decline, mainly because the Company often missed the guidance/milestones it announced before. This will greatly affect the credibility of Alphamab Oncology.</li>
<li>The current valuation is expensive and has basically priced in all the positive factors. The Company is more suitable for short-term trading to capture the rebound rather than long-term holding.</li>
</ul>


Unlike ADC, there're still doubts on the outlook of whole bispecific antibody mechanism. Alphamab Oncology doesn't actively promote related head-to-head trials, which makes people doubt the competitiveness of its products.
Investors' trust in Alphamab Oncology continues to decline, mainly because the Company often missed the guidance/milestones it announced before. This will greatly affect the credibility of Alphamab Oncology.
The current valuation is expensive and has basically priced in all the positive factors. The Company is more suitable for short-term trading to capture the rebound rather than long-term holding.


Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) - Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

China

3D Medicines Inc. operates as a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on the development of differentiated immuno-oncology drugs. 3D Medicines conducts businesses in China.

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3D Medicines (1244 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.6) - Weight Loss Drug CXO, Policy-Guided Capital Flows, 3D Medicines

Weight loss drug business would indeed bring opportunity to CDMO, but not CRO. Investors may need to pay attention to policy-guided capital...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang