Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>I think most (value) investors go through four stages: Stage 0: Buy stuff that goes up. Especially when a lot of people around you get rich from doing it.</li>
<li>Stage 1: Invest in the future! Buy into some fancy exciting new technology that will become big some day! The Cathie Wood stage. Usually stage 1 and stage 0 go hand in hand.</li>
<li>Stage 2: Buy at low PE multiples. Some are smart and skip the first two. This stage is not bad, it should lead to slight outperformance. Can be dangerous without wide diversification as a lot of them are value traps.</li>
</ul>


I think most (value) investors go through four stages: Stage 0: Buy stuff that goes up. Especially when a lot of people around you get rich from doing it.
Stage 1: Invest in the future! Buy into some fancy exciting new technology that will become big some day! The Cathie Wood stage. Usually stage 1 and stage 0 go hand in hand.
Stage 2: Buy at low PE multiples. Some are smart and skip the first two. This stage is not bad, it should lead to slight outperformance. Can be dangerous without wide diversification as a lot of them are value traps.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jan 28 based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were 3Sbio Inc. (1530 HK), China Gas (384 HK), Hygeia Healthcare (6078 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), 3Sbio (1530 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jan 28 based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were 3Sbio Inc. (1530 HK), China Gas (384 HK), Hygeia Healthcare (6078 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), 3Sbio (1530 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks: 3SBio, China Gas, Hygeia

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.</li>
<li>The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.</li>
<li>In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.</li>
</ul>


Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.
The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.
In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

Sino Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the business performance and short-term catalyst for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK),</a> and investors could decide whether to take advantage of it or not.</li>
<li>We also analyzed the concerns about the Company as well as our insights on the valuation of biopharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>Based on our analysis, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the business performance and short-term catalyst for Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK), and investors could decide whether to take advantage of it or not.
We also analyzed the concerns about the Company as well as our insights on the valuation of biopharmaceutical companies.
Based on our analysis, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.


Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) - The Business, The Concerns, The Insights on Biopharma Valuation

<p>On June 25, 2021, “something strange” happened to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a>. Its share price fell 16.61% in one day, closing at HK$10.14/share, and the market value decreased about HK$5 billion. On Monday, June 28, 2021, its share price continued to decline to HK$9.79/share. No matter which institutions reduced holdings, in fact, 3SBio's future performance still depends on the Company's fundamentals and business outlook. So, this insight mainly analyzed the important products, the pipeline and the concerns of 3SBio.</p>

On June 25, 2021, “something strange” happened to 3SBio Inc (1530 HK). Its share price fell 16.61% in one day, closing at HK$10.14/share, and the market value decreased about HK$5 billion. On Monday, June 28, 2021, its share price continued to decline to HK$9.79/share. No matter which institutions reduced holdings, in fact, 3SBio's future performance still depends on the Company's fundamentals and business outlook. So, this insight mainly analyzed the important products, the pipeline and the concerns of 3SBio.

3SBio Inc (1530.HK) - The Concerns and the Outlook

China

3SBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company located in China. The Company focuses on mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals in the biotechnology industry. 3SBio also develops, manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products globally.

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3SBio Inc (1530 HK)

Investing in HK Stocks

If you invest in Western markets this would be enough, but not in Asian markets where the trust factor is a lot lower, and where ownership is more...

Turtles all the way down

Hong Kong Buybacks: 3SBio, China Gas, Hygeia

We highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares in HK last week were 3Sbio Inc. (1530 HK), China Gas (384 HK), Hygeia Healthcare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

The insight mainly analyzed the relationship of drug spending with GDP growth, different logic behind China/US biotech companies and related risks...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) - The Business, The Concerns, The Insights on Biopharma Valuation

This article analyzed Sino Biopharmaceutical in terms of the business performance, short-term catalyst, concerns about the outlook, and insights on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

3SBio Inc (1530.HK) - The Concerns and the Outlook

This insight mainly analyzed the potential reasons behind the decline in 3SBio Group's share price, the important products, the pipeline, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)