HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies is about to burst as some founders/shareholders have started to reduce their holdings and cash out. We recommend investors to be rational.</li>
<li>Domestic innovative drugs market size would be about RMB600 billion by 2035. It is estimated the whole innovative drug industry's CAGR would be about 15% for the next decade.</li>
<li>Innovent announced Placement with the Placing price of HK$78.36/share. However, valuation is clearly at a high level. A more suitable option is to take profits rather than buy.</li>
</ul>


The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies is about to burst as some founders/shareholders have started to reduce their holdings and cash out. We recommend investors to be rational.
Domestic innovative drugs market size would be about RMB600 billion by 2035. It is estimated the whole innovative drug industry's CAGR would be about 15% for the next decade.
Innovent announced Placement with the Placing price of HK$78.36/share. However, valuation is clearly at a high level. A more suitable option is to take profits rather than buy.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) - Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent's Placement

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After years of falling valuations and stalled IPO activity, China’s innovative drug industry is showing early signs of a comeback.</li>
<li>A spate of large-scale cross-border licensing deals is rekindling global interest and lifting stock prices, suggesting a possible shift in momentum for the sector.</li>
<li>Yet despite headline-grabbing transactions and the buoyant market response, industry veterans warn the rebound may be selective, with persistent challenges still clouding the sector’s long-term outlook.</li>
</ul>


After years of falling valuations and stalled IPO activity, China’s innovative drug industry is showing early signs of a comeback.
A spate of large-scale cross-border licensing deals is rekindling global interest and lifting stock prices, suggesting a possible shift in momentum for the sector.
Yet despite headline-grabbing transactions and the buoyant market response, industry veterans warn the rebound may be selective, with persistent challenges still clouding the sector’s long-term outlook.


Chinese Biotech Innovators Push Overseas as Sector Faces Reckoning 

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 13th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 13th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Drugs / Cover Story: Chinese biotech is having a ‘deepseek moment’</li><li>Hong Kong /: Hong Kong bets on stablecoins and AI to future-proof its financial edge</li><li>Home appliances /Analysis: New U.S. tariffs mean tough times ahead for appliance-makers</li></ul>

Drugs / Cover Story: Chinese biotech is having a ‘deepseek moment’Hong Kong /: Hong Kong bets on stablecoins and AI to future-proof its financial edgeHome appliances /Analysis: New U.S. tariffs mean tough times ahead for appliance-makers

CX Daily: Chinese Biotech Is Having a ‘DeepSeek Moment’ 

Newtrend Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Summit's chances of being sold have decreased significantly. Since Summit does not have enough funds to promote multiple large-scale Phase III trials, the outlook of Summit/Akeso will become increasingly passive.</li>
<li>The public statements of Zhao Yan from Bloomage have raised doubts in the market about the prospects of collagen and Giant Biogene. Below, we shared some differentiated views on this.</li>
<li>The IPO pricing of Newtrend is HK$18.9-20.9/share. We think Newtrend is overvalued considering the "price war" and oversupply issue. Reasonable valuation should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-jinhe-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4296:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Jinhe Industrial (002597 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Summit's chances of being sold have decreased significantly. Since Summit does not have enough funds to promote multiple large-scale Phase III trials, the outlook of Summit/Akeso will become increasingly passive.
The public statements of Zhao Yan from Bloomage have raised doubts in the market about the prospects of collagen and Giant Biogene. Below, we shared some differentiated views on this.
The IPO pricing of Newtrend is HK$18.9-20.9/share. We think Newtrend is overvalued considering the "price war" and oversupply issue. Reasonable valuation should be lower than Anhui Jinhe Industrial (002597 CH).


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso, Giant Biogene's Trouble, Views on Newtrend IPO Pricing

China

3SBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company located in China. The Company focuses on mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals in the biotechnology industry. 3SBio also develops, manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products globally.

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3SBio Inc (1530 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) - Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent's Placement

The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies may burst soon, with some founders/shareholders already cashing out. Innovent's Placing Price of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chinese Biotech Innovators Push Overseas as Sector Faces Reckoning

After years of falling valuations and stalled IPO activity, China’s innovative drug industry is showing early signs of a comeback. A spate of...

Caixin Global

HK Short Interest Weekly: Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 13th and highlight short interest changes in Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CX Daily: Chinese Biotech Is Having a ‘DeepSeek Moment’

Drugs / Cover Story: Chinese biotech is having a ‘deepseek moment’ Hong Kong /: Hong Kong bets on stablecoins and AI to future-proof its financial...

Caixin Global

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso, Giant Biogene's Trouble, Views on Newtrend IPO Pricing

Summit's chances of being sold decrease largely, so the outlook of Summit/Akeso is passive. Doubts raised about Giant Biogene's outlook after Zhao...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) - Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent's Placement

The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies may burst soon, with some founders/shareholders already cashing out. Innovent's Placing Price of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chinese Biotech Innovators Push Overseas as Sector Faces Reckoning

After years of falling valuations and stalled IPO activity, China’s innovative drug industry is showing early signs of a comeback. A spate of...

Caixin Global

HK Short Interest Weekly: Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 13th and highlight short interest changes in Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CX Daily: Chinese Biotech Is Having a ‘DeepSeek Moment’

Drugs / Cover Story: Chinese biotech is having a ‘deepseek moment’ Hong Kong /: Hong Kong bets on stablecoins and AI to future-proof its financial...

Caixin Global

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso, Giant Biogene's Trouble, Views on Newtrend IPO Pricing

​Summit's chances of being sold decrease largely, so the outlook of Summit/Akeso is passive. Doubts raised about Giant Biogene's outlook after Zhao...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Summit's chances of being sold decrease largely, so the outlook of Summit/Akeso is passive. Doubts raised about Giant Biogene's outlook after Zhao...