Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Capital Markets

Uber Technologies  / Equity Capital Markets

In publishing this piece we hope to achieve four broad objectives:
<ol>
<li>To define and estimate the size and potential medium-term growth of the on-demand food delivery (FD) sector in the US.</li>
<li>To identify and describe the main players in the US on-demand FD sector and to understand each player’s business model (and the financial results each model generates).</li>
<li>To point out some of the challenges facing incumbents and new market entrants like Uber Eats.</li>
<li>Finally, to show interested readers how Uber Eats fits into parent Uber Technologies, and how it may contribute to the parent company's valuation.</li>
</ol>
This is the second note in a series about the expected 2019 IPO of global ride-hailing giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/430" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1">Uber Technologies (0084207D US)</a>. If you have not done so already, please check out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:803">Valerie Law, CFA</a>'s overview, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/uber-ipo-preview-its-sprawling-empire-and-battle-lines-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25201">Uber IPO Preview: Its Sprawling Empire and Battle Lines (Part 1)</a>.

In publishing this piece we hope to achieve four broad objectives:

To define and estimate the size and potential medium-term growth of the on-demand food delivery (FD) sector in the US.
To identify and describe the main players in the US on-demand FD sector and to understand each player’s business model (and the financial results each model generates).
To point out some of the challenges facing incumbents and new market entrants like Uber Eats.
Finally, to show interested readers how Uber Eats fits into parent Uber Technologies, and how it may contribute to the parent company's valuation.

This is the second note in a series about the expected 2019 IPO of global ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies (0084207D US). If you have not done so already, please check out Valerie Law, CFA's overview, Uber IPO Preview: Its Sprawling Empire and Battle Lines (Part 1). 

Uber IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Uber Eats Has Become a Material Part of Uber (Part 2)

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

Research From Beijing

We try to provide our clients with on the ground research of what is really going on here in China.

Our business goal and focus are to provide on the ground research This will give our clients an early look at changes about to happen in China and to give them an edge.

To have the ability to go out and check a car dealer or visit a hospital or go see any new launches in the market. We have regular products such as our steel monthly, a visit to the traders and discuss with them what they see. The steel trader visit gives a great early proxy to spending by the government. We do weekly car dealer visits to see how the car companies are doing but this is also a proxy to the consumer and how is the consumer thinking these days. We visit school and hospitals and attend events to find out what people are really thinking.

Our primary method of research is fundamental research starting with a neutral view, analyzing the financials and building the case for the company. We rarely look at the news as we have found the views to be incomplete lacking the understanding of Chinese thinking. We strive for a fresh differential view on the Chinese stocks. Most Chinese research is made by analysts reading the news and reading other Chinese analysts giving clients the same old view. We also try to give you a better understanding of how the Chinese look at issues. The English media tends to focus on examining issues from the western view giving investors often an incomplete view.

If you want your research done by professionals on the ground who are able to give you early feedback instead of most research taking a long distance view driven by the media. This is our value proposition: focused on the ground research to limited clients. We think this is the best way to give you the best chance to generate alpha for your funds.

Equity Bottom-Up

This strength in consumer spending is counter to the views of most Chinese foreign-based analysts. Consumption is much stronger than consensus is expecting. We have just written a 31 page NON-CONSESNUS report on China’s debt and the state of the economy, let me know if you are interested in this report.

This strength in consumer spending is counter to the views of most Chinese foreign-based analysts. Consumption is much stronger than consensus is expecting. We have just written a 31 page NON-CONSESNUS report on China’s debt and the state of the economy, let me know if you are interested in this report.

China Singles Day – Consensus Is Wrong on Chinese Consumers and Consumption

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Below is a recap of the key IPO and event-driven research produced by the Global Equity Research team.  This week we update on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> 's pending mobile unit IPO amidst price cuts announced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> . In addition, we assess the relationship between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27363" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1">Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (1629482D CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.Com International (Adr) (CTRP US)</a> -  investors may find this work prescient given the latter's recent struggles. Finally, we provide an update on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27044" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> after a step-up in competition and preview the IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27756:1">360 Finance, Inc. (QFIN US)</a>Quote of the week<blockquote>
"Your Value partner"
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/623" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> 2018 Annual report 
</blockquote>All of our recent IPO and fundamental research are listed below.Best of luck for the new week - Arun, Venkat and Rickin

Below is a recap of the key IPO and event-driven research produced by the Global Equity Research team.  This week we update on Softbank Group (9984 JP) 's pending mobile unit IPO amidst price cuts announced by NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) . In addition, we assess the relationship between Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (1629482D CH) and Ctrip.Com International (Adr) (CTRP US) -  investors may find this work prescient given the latter's recent struggles. Finally, we provide an update on Haidilao (6862 HK) after a step-up in competition and preview the IPO of 360 Finance, Inc. (QFIN US)Quote of the week
"Your Value partner"
NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) 2018 Annual report 
All of our recent IPO and fundamental research are listed below.Best of luck for the new week - Arun, Venkat and Rickin

Last Week in GER Research: Softbank, Haidilao, Tongcheng-Elong, Ctrip and 360 Finance

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<blockquote>'Analysis of factor exposures, risk contribution by position, hit ratios and correlations has never been easier and more widely practiced across the buyside. On the basis of the dismal performance of leading quant funds YTD (and indeed over recent years), this ‘scientific’ analysis is often implemented with unrepresentative sample periods, insufficient history, unstable correlations and poor signal to noise ratios. The bottom line is that macro investing is often more art than science… even relying on market implied probabilities embedded in futures markets can prove hugely misleading’</blockquote><div class="content-remarks">Weekly Insight, Sept 28th 2018</div><blockquote>‘We’re in a hell of a mess in every direction. Respect for government, respect for the Supreme Court, respect for the president, it’s all gone. Even respect for the Federal Reserve. And it’s really bad. At least the military still has all the respect. But I don’t know, how can you run a democracy when nobody believes in the leadership of the country?’</blockquote><div class="content-remarks">Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/23/business/dealbook/paul-volcker-federal-reserve.html" target="_blank">interviewed in the NYT</a></div>

'Analysis of factor exposures, risk contribution by position, hit ratios and correlations has never been easier and more widely practiced across the buyside. On the basis of the dismal performance of leading quant funds YTD (and indeed over recent years), this ‘scientific’ analysis is often implemented with unrepresentative sample periods, insufficient history, unstable correlations and poor signal to noise ratios. The bottom line is that macro investing is often more art than science… even relying on market implied probabilities embedded in futures markets can prove hugely misleading’Weekly Insight, Sept 28th 2018‘We’re in a hell of a mess in every direction. Respect for government, respect for the Supreme Court, respect for the president, it’s all gone. Even respect for the Federal Reserve. And it’s really bad. At least the military still has all the respect. But I don’t know, how can you run a democracy when nobody believes in the leadership of the country?’Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, interviewed in the NYT

Quants Blow Up, as Turkey Leads EM FX Rebound…

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

2018 has been another excellent year for the nascent eSports market, with growth of around 35~40% from 2017. With some big end-of-year tournaments yet to come, the 2018 prize pool looks to be up 28~30% at US$148~150mil, while sponsorship has grown even more quickly. With two months left in 2018, it seems highly likely that Dota 2 will continue to be the largest eSport by prize money, but the rise in Fortnite from nowhere at the start of the year to 2nd place suggests that Dota 2 is likely to be dethroned in 2019. Fortnite, though, is primarily a US phenomenon and elsewhere games like PUBG and ShadowVerse may have more of an impact as eSports, reflecting regional tastes. Overall, though, those companies investing in eSports - be it in facilities, tournaments, teams and leagues - should get rewarded.

2018 has been another excellent year for the nascent eSports market, with growth of around 35~40% from 2017. With some big end-of-year tournaments yet to come, the 2018 prize pool looks to be up 28~30% at US$148~150mil, while sponsorship has grown even more quickly. With two months left in 2018, it seems highly likely that Dota 2 will continue to be the largest eSport by prize money, but the rise in Fortnite from nowhere at the start of the year to 2nd place suggests that Dota 2 is likely to be dethroned in 2019. Fortnite, though, is primarily a US phenomenon and elsewhere games like PUBG and ShadowVerse may have more of an impact as eSports, reflecting regional tastes. Overall, though, those companies investing in eSports - be it in facilities, tournaments, teams and leagues - should get rewarded.

ESports - 2018 Provides a Great Platform for 2019

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Uber IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Uber Eats Has Become a Material Part of Uber (Part 2)

In publishing this piece we hope to achieve four broad objectives: To define and estimate the size and potential medium-term growth of the...

Daniel Hellberg

China Singles Day – Consensus Is Wrong on Chinese Consumers and Consumption

This strength in consumer spending is counter to the views of most Chinese foreign-based analysts. Consumption is much stronger than consensus is...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

Last Week in GER Research: Softbank, Haidilao, Tongcheng-Elong, Ctrip and 360 Finance

Below is a recap of the key IPO and event-driven research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week we update on Softbank Group (9984...

Rickin Thakrar

Quants Blow Up, as Turkey Leads EM FX Rebound…

'Analysis of factor exposures, risk contribution by position, hit ratios and correlations has never been easier and more widely practiced across...

Sean Maher

ESports - 2018 Provides a Great Platform for 2019

2018 has been another excellent year for the nascent eSports market, with growth of around 35~40% from 2017. With some big end-of-year tournaments...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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