Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this note, we look in more detail at the impact of the latest round of home purchase restrictions (HPRs) imposed in various cities in China on the sales volumes of new homes (in gross floor area terms).

In this note, we look in more detail at the impact of the latest round of home purchase restrictions (HPRs) imposed in various cities in China on the sales volumes of new homes (in gross floor area terms).

China Property: Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on Sales Volumes

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth, sales volume growth and months-to-clear, land sales and new starts. We compare the latest November data with October, with national-level figures and a breakdown for Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 and others for select cities, depending on data availability.More clear signs of deceleration, especially for Tier-1 cities (driven by Shenzhen), though at an…

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth, sales volume growth and months-to-clear, land sales and new starts. We compare the latest November data with October, with national-level figures and a breakdown for Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 and others for select cities, depending on data availability.More clear signs of deceleration, especially for Tier-1 cities (driven by Shenzhen), though at an…

China Property Market Indicators Dashboard: November Vs October Data

Based on latest NBS data released this morning: In November, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 7.7% YoY and 24.5% YTD YoY, compared to 26% and 27% in October, according to the latest data published by NBS today, with further signs of slowdown in volume growth. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 6.2% on YoY basis (vs -0.1% in October) and declined by -4.3% on YTD YoY basis (vs -5.5% in October)…

Based on latest NBS data released this morning: In November, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 7.7% YoY and 24.5% YTD YoY, compared to 26% and 27% in October, according to the latest data published by NBS today, with further signs of slowdown in volume growth. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 6.2% on YoY basis (vs -0.1% in October) and declined by -4.3% on YTD YoY basis (vs -5.5% in October)…

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Slower But At Record Levels, Land Sales Still Very Low

Latest data from SouFun-CREIS released today shows the average house price in November increased 18.7% y-o-y, as measured by the 100 Cities Index, still faster than 18.2% in October but the pace of acceleration is slowing down.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/017/654/original/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-12%20at%2013.08.51.png?1481519367" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="17654"></figure>On an m-o-m basis, the index in November increased 0.88%, compared to 1.65% in October and 2.8% in September, and that figure is more indicative of a sequential slowdown in price growth.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/017/652/original/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-12%20at%2012.58.32.png?1481519009" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="17652"></figure>Source: Real Estate Foresight, based on data from SouFun-CREIS Prices in Shenzhen…

Latest data from SouFun-CREIS released today shows the average house price in November increased 18.7% y-o-y, as measured by the 100 Cities Index, still faster than 18.2% in October but the pace of acceleration is slowing down.On an m-o-m basis, the index in November increased 0.88%, compared to 1.65% in October and 2.8% in September, and that figure is more indicative of a sequential slowdown in price growth.Source: Real Estate Foresight, based on data from SouFun-CREIS Prices in Shenzhen…

China Property: New House Price Data Shows Policy Tightening Gradually Making Impact

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

We at Riedel Research are not China bears and do have never been believers in a 'hard landing' there - however, we have identified an disturbing development in real estate price expectations in China.The monthly MNI consumer sentiment survey asks respondents multiple questions about their outlook for asset prices and their own actions in terms of investing, saving and spending.RRG has developed a series of proprietary indicators from the monthly dataset (back to April 2007) which provide deep…

We at Riedel Research are not China bears and do have never been believers in a 'hard landing' there - however, we have identified an disturbing development in real estate price expectations in China.The monthly MNI consumer sentiment survey asks respondents multiple questions about their outlook for asset prices and their own actions in terms of investing, saving and spending.RRG has developed a series of proprietary indicators from the monthly dataset (back to April 2007) which provide deep…

Outlook for Chinese Real Estate: Maybe at a Tipping Point and Headed for Significant Fall

China

Shui On Land Limited engages principally in the development, sale, leasing, management and ownership of residential, office, retail, entertainment and cultural properties in the PRC.

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Shui On Land (272 HK)

China Property: Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on Sales Volumes

In this note, we look in more detail at the impact of the latest round of home purchase restrictions (HPRs) imposed in various cities in China on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Market Indicators Dashboard: November Vs October Data

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Slower But At Record Levels, Land Sales Still Very Low

Based on latest NBS data released this morning: In November, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 7.7% YoY and 24.5%...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: New House Price Data Shows Policy Tightening Gradually Making Impact

Latest data from SouFun-CREIS released today shows the average house price in November increased 18.7% y-o-y, as measured by the 100 Cities Index,...

Robert Ciemniak

Outlook for Chinese Real Estate: Maybe at a Tipping Point and Headed for Significant Fall

We at Riedel Research are not China bears and do have never been believers in a 'hard landing' there - however, we have identified an disturbing...

David Riedel

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