Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD102.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, Realtek Semi, TSMC, Lite-On Tech, Asmedia Tech, Asustek Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD102.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, Realtek Semi, TSMC, Lite-On Tech, Asmedia Tech, Asustek Computer.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, Realtek Semi, TSMC, Lite-On Tech

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 14th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,617.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,436mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Hon Hai, TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine, Ctbc Financial, Eva Airways, Asia Vital, Asmedia Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 14th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,617.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,436mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Hon Hai, TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine, Ctbc Financial, Eva Airways, Asia Vital, Asmedia Tech.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 14th): Hon Hai, TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Realtek Semi

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NPL growth in 1Q24 is higher than all peers QoQ in NTDm and 90% higher QoQ</li>
<li>Mega's YTD net profit is up only 3.2% as at May which may mean high credit costs</li>
<li>Impairment costs in total were around 3x higher last year YoY which can also be due to acquisitions, subsidiaries</li>
</ul>


NPL growth in 1Q24 is higher than all peers QoQ in NTDm and 90% higher QoQ
Mega's YTD net profit is up only 3.2% as at May which may mean high credit costs
Impairment costs in total were around 3x higher last year YoY which can also be due to acquisitions, subsidiaries


Mega Financial - NPL Formation In 1Q24 Surpasses All Peers, May YTD Net Profit Growth YoY Only 3%

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 7th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,400.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD12,832mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Realtek Semi, Asmedia Tech, Global Unichip, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech, TSMC, Ctbc Financial, Hon Hai, Asustek Computer, Umc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 7th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,400.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD12,832mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Realtek Semi, Asmedia Tech, Global Unichip, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech, TSMC, Ctbc Financial, Hon Hai, Asustek Computer, Umc.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 7th): Realtek Semi, Asmedia Tech, Global Unichip, Yang Ming Marine

Taiwan

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

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CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT)

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, Realtek Semi, TSMC, Lite-On Tech

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, Realtek Semi, TSMC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 14th): Hon Hai, TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Realtek Semi

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hon Hai, TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mega Financial - NPL Formation In 1Q24 Surpasses All Peers, May YTD Net Profit Growth YoY Only 3%

Mega Financial is seeing weak net profit growth in its May 2024 release. Its surge in NPLs in 1Q24 may be a reason for this, and recall its...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 7th): Realtek Semi, Asmedia Tech, Global Unichip, Yang Ming Marine

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Realtek Semi, Asmedia Tech, Global Unichip, Yang...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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