Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Investor conviction is fading fast. Indonesian Financials have seen the steepest global drop in fund ownership over six months, falling to a four-year low in participation and weighting.</li>
<li>Once a top regional overweight, the sector has dropped to 12th in Asia, with its net overweight halving as sell-side pressure builds.</li>
<li>Bank Central Asia remains steady, but peers like Bank Rakyat and Bank Mandiri are seeing multi-year lows in ownership. Broader sentiment looks fragile.</li>
</ul>


Investor conviction is fading fast. Indonesian Financials have seen the steepest global drop in fund ownership over six months, falling to a four-year low in participation and weighting.
Once a top regional overweight, the sector has dropped to 12th in Asia, with its net overweight halving as sell-side pressure builds.
Bank Central Asia remains steady, but peers like Bank Rakyat and Bank Mandiri are seeing multi-year lows in ownership. Broader sentiment looks fragile.


Reversal in Progress: Indonesian Financials Lose Their Shine

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.</li>
<li>Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.
Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US is focusing on propelling growth with tax cuts, ignoring the debt problem. The obvious consequence, more USD depreciation, could drive more money from US assets into Asia and Europe.</li>
<li>If 1% of US free float market cap flows into Asia, it would constitute 7.2% of Asia's market cap. That's more than 5x the highest ever annual Asian FII inflow.</li>
<li>Taiwan, Korea and India have seen the biggest FII flow revival. To sidestep the deleterious effect of sharp USD appreciation on Asian exports, investors should play China, India, Indonesia, Philippines.</li>
</ul>


US is focusing on propelling growth with tax cuts, ignoring the debt problem. The obvious consequence, more USD depreciation, could drive more money from US assets into Asia and Europe.
If 1% of US free float market cap flows into Asia, it would constitute 7.2% of Asia's market cap. That's more than 5x the highest ever annual Asian FII inflow.
Taiwan, Korea and India have seen the biggest FII flow revival. To sidestep the deleterious effect of sharp USD appreciation on Asian exports, investors should play China, India, Indonesia, Philippines.


More USD Depreciation on the Cards - Who Wins, Who Loses.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Based on the OJK data, we see deteriorating asset quality across all segments, i.e., property, vehicle, and other household loans.</li><li>Breaching its all-time high NPL ratio, the weaknesses observed in the apartment segment reaffirm our concern about asset quality in 2025.</li><li>Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS, on their earnings momentum and lesser ownership.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Based on the OJK data, we see deteriorating asset quality across all segments, i.e., property, vehicle, and other household loans.Breaching its all-time high NPL ratio, the weaknesses observed in the apartment segment reaffirm our concern about asset quality in 2025.Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS, on their earnings momentum and lesser ownership.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Deteriorating Household Loans’ Asset Quality (NEUTRAL)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Market review: JCI ended the week up 0.7% w-w, outperforming majority of EM peers.</li><li>Amid negative performances from the big sectors (Banks +0.5%, Telco -2.5% Consumer Staples -1.8% w-w), JCI’s positive return for the week was driven by Oil &amp; Gas (+10.6% w-w), Cement (+7.8% w-w) and Industrial Estate (+4.6% w-w).</li><li>In line with the majority of EM peers, foreign investors flow into JCI was a net positive (US$80mn), with mixed flows into large-cap banks (except for BBRI), TLKM, and metals (ANTM and BRMS). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market review: JCI ended the week up 0.7% w-w, outperforming majority of EM peers.Amid negative performances from the big sectors (Banks +0.5%, Telco -2.5% Consumer Staples -1.8% w-w), JCI’s positive return for the week was driven by Oil &amp; Gas (+10.6% w-w), Cement (+7.8% w-w) and Industrial Estate (+4.6% w-w).In line with the majority of EM peers, foreign investors flow into JCI was a net positive (US$80mn), with mixed flows into large-cap banks (except for BBRI), TLKM, and metals (ANTM and BRMS). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Telco Sector 5-Year EV/EBITDA

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Reversal in Progress: Indonesian Financials Lose Their Shine

Indonesian Financials are under pressure, with fund ownership falling to a 4-year low. Once a strong overweight, conviction is narrowing to a few...

Steven Holden

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 2 sets of changes for the LQ45 in July. The forecast adds and deletes have traded in a range over the last few months. Historically,...

Brian Freitas

More USD Depreciation on the Cards - Who Wins, Who Loses.

USD continues to decline against EM currencies. Last month North Asian currencies were up 2-2.5% (notably TWD) & ASEAN currencies 0.6-0.8%. INR was...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Banks: Deteriorating Household Loans’ Asset Quality (NEUTRAL)

Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS, on their earnings momentum and lesser ownership.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Telco Sector 5-Year EV/EBITDA

The week’s positive performance brought JCI to a 1.2% YTD increase, better than majority of ASEAN EM peers, while foreign investors were still at...

BRI Danareksa Research

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