Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Current Indonesian government bond yield levels appear, in our view, to reflect many of the present macro-economic challenges; also, the central bank has been free to raise interest rates</li>
<li>We keep Bank Mandiri on the buy list for its improving return trends, solid credit quality, attractive valuations and asset-sensitive qualities; it also has limited exposure to domestic government bonds</li>
<li>We downgrade Bank Negara to a neutral from a buy, due to its underwhelming return trends, its limited asset-sensitivity and its high exposure to domestic government bonds</li>
</ul>


Current Indonesian government bond yield levels appear, in our view, to reflect many of the present macro-economic challenges; also, the central bank has been free to raise interest rates
We keep Bank Mandiri on the buy list for its improving return trends, solid credit quality, attractive valuations and asset-sensitive qualities; it also has limited exposure to domestic government bonds
We downgrade Bank Negara to a neutral from a buy, due to its underwhelming return trends, its limited asset-sensitivity and its high exposure to domestic government bonds


Indonesian Banks – Keep Buy on Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), Downgrading Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) To Neutral

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.</li>
<li>Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.</li>
<li>Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.</li>
</ul>


The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.
Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.
Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.


ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is Indonesia's largest bank, providing a wide range of banking products and services to individuals and businesses. These offerings include savings and current accounts, various loans, credit and debit cards, e-banking, investment products, and insurance services. The bank was formed on October 2, 1998, through the merger of four state-owned banks and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

Indonesian Banks – Keep Buy on Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), Downgrading Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) To Neutral

Domestic government bond yields have risen and the central bank has raised interest rates; asset-sensitive Mandiri remains a buy, we downgrade Bank...

Victor Galliano

ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN positioning shifts as Indonesia loses ground and Malaysia stays weak. Singapore and Thailand attract inflows, while new leaders like ICTSI...

Steven Holden

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

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