Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>I am quite sick so I will keep it short.</li>
<li>I am closing Lufax (LU) here and would at least take something off the table for JD holdings (JD) </li>
<li>Honestly Lufax business is too much of a black box, and the forward PE multiple isn’t low enough anymore for my taste.</li>
</ul>


I am quite sick so I will keep it short.
I am closing Lufax (LU) here and would at least take something off the table for JD holdings (JD) 
Honestly Lufax business is too much of a black box, and the forward PE multiple isn’t low enough anymore for my taste.


<ul><li>(I didn’t want to send it out right away, because I wanted to proofread my post before sending it, and unfortunately DADA is already up 10% since writing :( )</li><li>Recently Dada Nexus (DADA) , a Chinese last mile delivery service and on demand retail platform reported that about 500mn RMB ($70mn US) of revenue and costs were overstated for the first 3 reported quarters of 2023.</li><li>This news came right after 2 JD executives had taken over management of the company in December last year.</li></ul>

(I didn’t want to send it out right away, because I wanted to proofread my post before sending it, and unfortunately DADA is already up 10% since writing :( )Recently Dada Nexus (DADA) , a Chinese last mile delivery service and on demand retail platform reported that about 500mn RMB ($70mn US) of revenue and costs were overstated for the first 3 reported quarters of 2023.This news came right after 2 JD executives had taken over management of the company in December last year.

Contextualizing EM Investment Opportunities, Pyramids and Pagodas

Pyramids and Pagodas

Contextualizing EM Investment Opportunities

Established in 2022, Pyramids and Pagodas aims to cover underreported trends and companies across emerging markets (“EM”), with a particular focus on Asia and the Middle East. Our content targets a broad audience of investors and anyone seeking to capitalize on or learn more about undervalued investment opportunities in these regions. We have skin in the game for these ideas with a view to build a strong track record with demonstrable returns in the long run.

<ul><li>Dada Nexus Limited (DADA.OQ) (“Dada”), with a market cap of USD 869.9 million, is one of China’s leading on-demand retail platforms holding around 20% market share behind Meituan (42%, 3690.HK) and Ele.me (24%, Alibaba-owned).</li><li>Dada, a 54% subsidiary of JD.com (JD.OQ; 9618.HK) and 9% owned by Walmart Inc. (WMT.N) operates two core businesses, namely:</li><li>JD Daojia (JDDJ), which is a local non-restaurant online to offline (“O2O”) retail marketplace</li></ul>

Dada Nexus Limited (DADA.OQ) (“Dada”), with a market cap of USD 869.9 million, is one of China’s leading on-demand retail platforms holding around 20% market share behind Meituan (42%, 3690.HK) and Ele.me (24%, Alibaba-owned).Dada, a 54% subsidiary of JD.com (JD.OQ; 9618.HK) and 9% owned by Walmart Inc. (WMT.N) operates two core businesses, namely:JD Daojia (JDDJ), which is a local non-restaurant online to offline (“O2O”) retail marketplace

Dada Nexus (DADA.OQ) – Leading Chinese On-Demand Retail Platform Accelerates on Significant Runway

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>JD.com (JD) reported (15 Nov) better-than-feared 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB247.7bn, up 1.7% YoY, 0.7/0.5% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB10.6bn, ahead of our/consensus estimates of RMB8.8/9.2bn, thanks to better-than-feared margin performance of JD Retail (JDR) business, in our view, demonstrating JD’s ability to retain the wallet share of its core consumer base in an effective way, and translating into a non-GAAP NPM of 4.3% (3Q22: 4.1%).</li><li>Management highlighted double-digit order and user growth during the Double 11 shopping festival, noted that business adjustment impact will largely wear off in 2024, and guided to achieve a better-than-China retail sales growth performance in 2024. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD) reported (15 Nov) better-than-feared 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB247.7bn, up 1.7% YoY, 0.7/0.5% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus.Non-GAAP net income was RMB10.6bn, ahead of our/consensus estimates of RMB8.8/9.2bn, thanks to better-than-feared margin performance of JD Retail (JDR) business, in our view, demonstrating JD’s ability to retain the wallet share of its core consumer base in an effective way, and translating into a non-GAAP NPM of 4.3% (3Q22: 4.1%).Management highlighted double-digit order and user growth during the Double 11 shopping festival, noted that business adjustment impact will largely wear off in 2024, and guided to achieve a better-than-China retail sales growth performance in 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) – Better-Than-Feared 3Q Results

<ul><li>JD.com (JD) reported (16 Aug) 2Q23 results: revenue was RMB287.9bn, up 7.6% YoY, 2.5/3.2% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB8.6bn, ahead of our estimates/consensus at RMB8.2/7.8bn, thanks to better-than-expected loss reduction for new businesses, and translated into a non-GAAP NPM of 3.0% (2Q22: 2.4%).</li><li>Despite the beat on overall margins, the 0.2pp miss on OPM of JD Retail (JDR) sparked concerns that its core business margin expansion trajectory could face fluctuations. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD) reported (16 Aug) 2Q23 results: revenue was RMB287.9bn, up 7.6% YoY, 2.5/3.2% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus.Non-GAAP net income was RMB8.6bn, ahead of our estimates/consensus at RMB8.2/7.8bn, thanks to better-than-expected loss reduction for new businesses, and translated into a non-GAAP NPM of 3.0% (2Q22: 2.4%).Despite the beat on overall margins, the 0.2pp miss on OPM of JD Retail (JDR) sparked concerns that its core business margin expansion trajectory could face fluctuations. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) – Grinding through growth strategy pains

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (ADR) (JD US)

Chinese Animal Spirits

I am quite sick so I will keep it short. I am closing Lufax (LU) here and would at least take something off the table for JD holdings (JD) ....

Turtles all the way down

Two New Chinese Stocks

Recently Dada Nexus (DADA) , a Chinese last mile delivery service and on demand retail platform reported that about 500mn RMB ($70mn US) of revenue...

Turtles all the way down

Dada Nexus (DADA.OQ) – Leading Chinese On-Demand Retail Platform Accelerates on Significant Runway

Dada Nexus Limited (DADA.OQ) (“Dada”), with a market cap of USD 869.9 million, is one of China’s leading on-demand retail platforms holding around...

Pyramids and Pagodas

JD.com (JD US) – Better-Than-Feared 3Q Results

JD.com (JD) reported (15 Nov) better-than-feared 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB247.7bn, up 1.7% YoY, 0.7/0.5% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg...

CMB International

JD.com (JD US) – Grinding through growth strategy pains

JD.com (JD) reported (16 Aug) 2Q23 results: revenue was RMB287.9bn, up 7.6% YoY, 2.5/3.2% higher than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus.

CMB International

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