Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market</li>
<li>In financials, insurers are a lower volatility way of playing the equity market revival</li>
<li>Watch for a reversal of bond yields as a signal to buy</li>
</ul>


Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market
In financials, insurers are a lower volatility way of playing the equity market revival
Watch for a reversal of bond yields as a signal to buy


Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; </li>
<li>Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? </li>
<li>We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.</li>
</ul>


As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; 
Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? 
We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.


Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>Tencent and NetEase games showed strong during CNY, echoing strong box office showing. Express delivery data suggested robust e-commerce performance;</li>
<li>However, as a big ticket item with no subsidies support, housing market petered out quickly after CNY, which suggests recovery is still fragile;</li>
<li>Meituan's milk tea order volume jumped after introducing social gift functions. Meituan and JD.com are two beneficiaries of social gifting from the GMV angle with Tencent from the advertising angle.</li>
</ul>


Tencent and NetEase games showed strong during CNY, echoing strong box office showing. Express delivery data suggested robust e-commerce performance;
However, as a big ticket item with no subsidies support, housing market petered out quickly after CNY, which suggests recovery is still fragile;
Meituan's milk tea order volume jumped after introducing social gift functions. Meituan and JD.com are two beneficiaries of social gifting from the GMV angle with Tencent from the advertising angle.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

<ul>
<li>2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;</li>
<li>Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; </li>
<li>We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. </li>
</ul>


2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;
Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; 
We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. 


2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (ADR) (JD US)

Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...

Rikki Malik

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing

Tencent and NetEase games shine during CNY, housing market falters post-holiday, Meituan sees boost in milk tea orders with social gifting feature.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

​Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...

Rikki Malik

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

​Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing

​Tencent and NetEase games shine during CNY, housing market falters post-holiday, Meituan sees boost in milk tea orders with social gifting feature.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

​China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Tencent and NetEase games shine during CNY, housing market falters post-holiday, Meituan sees boost in milk tea orders with social gifting feature.

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...